Sunday, November 2, 2008

Hot Stove Heater: American League North (Dylan)

Dylan

What happened in 2018: Halifax ran away with the division, winning 98 games - second most in SLB - and eventually taking the World Series four games to three over Paris. The Sailors swung a masterful deal in June, dealing, well, not much of anything to Chiang for Mark Prior. The big righty had struggled in the Far East, but righted his ship once he made the move and helped Halifax to its first championship since 2012. The Sailors got strong seasons from basically their entire offense and received fantastic years from Prior (13-10, 3.77 ERA), Cy Young winnerJohan Santana (20-1, 3.34) and El Ron Ubardo (13-8, 3.35).
Bedford and Philly finished with identical 77-83 records and missed the playoffs. The Fever put on an offensive show, Andy Hunter (53 home runs, 143 RBIs, 112 runs) supplied most of the power while Jay Bruce (.349 average, 144 runs, 44 doubles, 30 triples, 36 home runs, 105 RBIs and 36 stolen bases) turned in one of the most complete seasons in SLB history and won the division's MVP award. Where did it go wrong? No pitcher had an ERA under 4.52. When your best ERA is turned in by a guy named Phil Coughty, you know you're in trouble. Rich Harden disappointed with a 5.32 ERA - his worst since 2005. The pitching staff erased any chance of a Fever postseason.
For Bedford, its problems appropriately mirrored Philly's. The offense was solid - though not as spectacular as the Fever's - but the pitching staff fell apart. Luke Hochevar (9-7, 3.32) was great and Ted Striker was solid (12-9, 4.06) but the Crunch failed to get meaningful innings out of any other pitcher until Connors Graham tossed 18.2 innings of 1.93 ERA ball late in the season.
Todric Johnson (.326/.371/.610) mashed and Basil Elton-John smoked 35 home runs in just 477 at bats, but the hitting couldn't overcome the meager pitching.
Where to start for Cleveland? They won just 69 games, worst in the American League. Their offense was middle of the road. Their pitching? In a word, it was miserable. Only Osaka (6.64) had a worse ERA than the Dawgs' 5.72 mark. Mike Miller was the "headliner" with his 13-11, 4.54 performance. Someone named Chas Keohane was allowed to log 110 innings of 7.28 ERA, a number that would make even Osaka wince. More embarrassing than even that woeful mark was the 72.1 innings of 10.58 (TEN FIFTY EIGHT) ERA that Maurice Rodriguez threw up (literally). This staff's performance better have cost someone a job, that's all I can say.
The offense fared much better. Tex Austin (.313/.374/.625, 48-126) had a fantastic season, Alex Hildebrand stole 34 bases and hit .331/.372/.591 with 32 home runs and when healthy, catcher Neil Walker (.342/.405/.578) mashed.
On the flipside, Juan Pierre hit .205 but was somehow allowed to steal 293 at bats. Overall, it was just a disaster for Cleveland.

What happened in the offseason:
Halifax, riding high off its championship season, re-signed Justin Upton, grabbed reliever Tim Gudex out of Kyoto and signed Josh Barfield. They did let Ubardo go out east to Taipei, but pitching was not their problem last year and Gudex will help shore up their bullpen.
Philly re-signed third baseman Evan Longoria, whose talent has never matched his production, and in an appropriate move, signed Doug Waechter from Bedford. The Crunch tossed deals at mediocre pitching, apparently hoping to steal the San Juan playbook of "hit a lot and get pitching performances from nobodies" while Cleveland grabbed reliever Reed Rothchild to strengthen the pen and got a potential steal in signing the always-disappointing but apparently renewed Matt Bush for under $2 million a season.

What will happen in 2019: Halifax will again run away with the division. That's it in a nutshell. They won 21 more games than anyone else in the North last year and they should do it again this year. I wouldn't say that they got appreciably better from last season to this season, but they didn't get worse and that should get it done considering that no one else in the division got better, either. Philly and Bedford still can't pitch and neither can Cleveland. Someone tell Sailors' GM Larsen Cain to set his alarm for when the playoffs start. He can nap until then.

Predicted order of finish:
Halifax, Philly, Bedford, Cleveland.

Top 5 pitchers
Mark Prior - Halifax
Johan Santana - Halifax
Luke Hochevar - Bedford
Justin Verlander - Halifax
Rich Harden - Philly

Top 5 Hitters
1. Jay Bruce - Philly
2. Tex Austin - Cleveland
3. Andy Hunter - Philly
4. Justin Upton - Halifax
5. Alex Hildebrand - Cleveland

Top 5 prospects
1. Jason Wilber - Philly
2. Samuel Archibald - Halifax
3. Hunter Johnson - Bedord
4. Dante Bichette Jr. - Cleveland
5. Greg Moore - Halifax

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