Sunday, November 2, 2008

Hot Stove Heater: American League South (Dylan)

What happened last year: While Halifax and London won their divisions by double digits, and Taipei won the Far East's battle of attrition, Atlanta and San Juan actually had a competitive, well-played fight to the finish.
In the end, Atlanta finished on top, going 98-62, four games ahead of San Juan's 94-66 mark.
Baltimore? Need you even ask? The Panthers finished 77-83. Savannah ended in last, with a 73-87 record.
The Flyers and the Senadores fought tooth and nail till the final day of the regular season — and then fought some more in the first round of the playoffs. Atlanta knocked out SJ four games to one before bowing out to Halifax in the ALCS.
For the Flyers in the regular season, it was more of the same. Darren Lemming continued his assault on the record books, Curt Smaza (34 home runs) and Justin Morneau (32) cranked out over 30 bombs, the Flyers scored 1004 runs (not a typo), and, oh yeah, Homer Bailey and Carlos Zambrano combined for a 36-13 record.
For the negatives ... Ryan Tucker and Al Krieger, long assumed to be the heirs to the Bailey/Zambrano throne, struggled a bit. Tucker finished with a 4.26 ERA and Krieger went 10-16 with a 5.83 mark. God bless run support, Tucker went 17-5.
San Juan's offense was quite as high-powered as the Flyers' (the Senadores crossed the plate 876 times, good for sixth in SLB) but they scored enough to tide over a pretty fierce staff (4.61 ERA, good for fifth in the league).
Shortstop Floyd Larkin pulled a Diego Clemente and hit 39 home runs with 140 RBIs and 28 stolen bases. And he didn't even lead the team in OPS. Left fielder Matt Musser hit .345 with 25 homers and 27 triples, good for an OPS of 1.001. As if that weren't enough, he stole 62 bases, too.
Jeff Niemann finally lived up to his potential, going 17-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 223 strikeouts and Kevin Thompson, acquired in a trade from Taipei (who acquired him in a trade from CHNG), finished 11-10 but posted a 3.48 ERA.
Oh Baltimore. It has to be hard being the Panthers. They got years out of Frank Vanderwal (.348 average!!!!??), Albert Pujols, Dallas McPherson and John Atwood that the fans had been clamoring for. Dennis Tankersly, Zach Putnam and Ben Cepeda pitched very well, the bullpen was, at worst, average, and yet the Panthers had to wake up every day in the same division with Atlanta and San Juan.
Same for Savannah. They had the same ERA as San Juan (and 0.01 better than Atlanta, too), but scored 108 fewer runs than the Senadores. What does that get you? See: last place.
The Sabres' offense hit just 195 homers, fewer than every team except Taipei (182) and Halifax (187). Ironically, both those teams went to the postseason. Their offense was "led" by Miguel Cabrera (who underperformed) and the two-headed monster of Zach Tobin and Brandon Leahy. Not exactly fearsome.
Phillip Humber (15-7, 3.36 ERA, 199 Ks) was one of the better pitchers in the entire league and Dontrelle Willis made 22 starts and posted a 2.90 ERA.

What happened in the offseason: Not a whole hell of a lot, honestly. Despite a run made by Osaka at Darren Lemming (would he have hit 100 homers for the Ronin?), Atlanta matched an unprecedented $20 million deal. Atlanta also matched on K-Rod, while San Juan matched on Jeff Niemann and watched late-season pick up Kevin Thompson go. Savannah signed John Mayberry, the only move of note that the Sabers (and Baltimore, for that matter) made.

What will happen in 2019: Atlanta will get better pitching from Tucker and Krieger and will again hold off San Juan by just a few games, while Baltimore and Savannah will finish well below the two standard bearers. Lemming will continue his assault on the record books and will finish the season with over 450 home runs.

Top 5 pitchers:
Homer Bailey, Atlanta
Zach Putnam, Baltimore
Phillip Humber, Savannah
Carlos Zambrano, Atlanta
Jeff Niemann, San Juan

Top 5 hitters:
Darren Lemming, Atlanta
Floyd Larkin, San Juan
Matt Musser, San Juan
D2J, San Juan
Miguel Cabrera, Savannah

Top 5 prospects
Josh Rodriguez, Atlanta
Morton Henrikksen, Atlanta
Anthony Rodriguez, San Juan
Charlie Proly, San Juan
Virgil Johnson, Baltimore

Predicted order of finish
Atlanta, San Juan, Savannah, Baltimore

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

GREAT JOB. Really enjoyed reading it