Season Preview - Atlanta Flyers

2017 Record: 76-84
Key Additions: 3B Chest Rockwell
Key Losses: Barry Zito
2018 Prediction: 85-75

2017 was a season that Flyers fans would rather forget. The team started slow and never got on track, finishing with their worst record since 2009. The once youth-rich Atlanta club has started seeing their home-grown players take the money and run, and the well has dried up a bit in Charleston. In addition, the rest of the division has caught up a bit to the Flyers, with San Juan mimicking their model to a tee. At this point, this isn't a 90 win team, and the team philosophy has started to crack; despite the most rookies on any 40-man roster in the league, Atlanta has over $78 million (of their $82.5 million payroll) tied into five players. With exactly $0 of wiggle room under his cap, GM Jim Masters has the stress of hoping his big stars do well, but not so well that they win a post-season award and destroy his carefully planned finances.

Batting Order

CF Gregory Burns
2B Curt Smaza
SS James Ewing
LF Darren Lemming
3B Chest Rockwell
1B Justin Morneau
C Jeffrey Clement
RF Josh Brady

While Darren Lemming and Chest Rockwell is about the scariest 1-2 punch you can think of in the middle of a batting order, the chance of their being a lot of guys on base in front of them seems slim. Burns is getting his first shot at full-time work after collecting about 400 PA's in his rookie year, and #3 hitter James Ewing struck out 136 times in 690 AB's. Jeff Clement is a scary good catcher, but he can't seem to stay healthy. Justin Morneau is certainly serviceable, but the aging veteran's good numbers only serve to hide the fact that John Twain isn't developing the way the team would like.

Pitching Rotation: Homer Bailey, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Tucker, Al Krieger, Corey Wade
Closer: Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez

There's no doubt that Bailey will be a Cy Young contender if healthy. Zambrano is always a coin flip (9-16 last year is not what they need again). Tucker is an underrated young arm, Corey Wade is just not good. Rookie Al Krieger (1st Round Pick out of U. of Miami, 2013) was 9-4, 3.01 last year in AAA (and 42-15 overall in 4 minor league seasons) and hopes to make up for the recent losses of Prior and Zito. The bullpen is not a team strength (outside of closer K-Rod).

This seems to be a "litmus test" type season in Atlanta; let's see what this team is made of and if another run of Atlanta dominance is on the horizon.

News and Notes: Friday, June 9, 2017

Around SLB this week:

- The 2017 Amateur Draft should be coming up in the next couple of days. Get your lists ready. Three rounds of 16 - the sooner your lists are in, the quicker games can resume.
- OSA fell a little closer to the pack in the Far East, dropping all 3 games to SJ. The Senadores scored 39 runs and gave up 18. Fourteen HR were hit by SJ and GM Bill Gluvna is now lobbying ownership and the league to consider moving the franchise to Japan.
- Just curious: After having their AAA team in Mexico City in 2004-05, HAL was asked to move their AAA franchise because supposedly, the high average (.324 in 2004) and high HR totals (243 in 2005) skewed stats and damaged the integrity of the league. 1B P Fielder of Mexico still holds the minor league record with 43 bombs. Yet the team record for SLB homeruns has been set by OSA (374 in 2014), the individual record by an OSA player (72 in 2014) and the Ronin have led the league in homeruns by 47 (2016), 61 (2015), 142 (2014), and 77 (2013). They are the only team to hit over 300 HR in a season and have done so 4 seasons in a row. The individual HR leader has been from OSA the past 4 seasons as well. Where is the outrage now?
- There are two teams with remarkably low slugging percentages: TAI is at .380, KYO at .393. The Tai Fong's leader in slugging is LF E Dalton (and former Bushido) at .521. LF A Mule of KYO leads his team with his .533 mark.
- KYO took 2 of 3 from ATL , another blow to the Flyers season. ATL is 3.5 games back of third place BAL in the South. "We really spanked Zambrano in the second game," said Manager Bobby Valentine. "I thought we came out a little flat in game three, the guys knew they had the series won and relaxed against Zito. You just can't do that. Savannah comes here next and even though its only June, every game is important."
- Despite getting shutout in 10 innings in Game 1 v LON, BAL took the next two games and are 7-3 in their last 10. The Knights had RHP J Weaver on the mound for Game 2 and saw his typical performance: 7 innings, 13 hits, 2 walks and 7 ER. Weaver has given up 15 HR in 13 starts (68 IP).
- CHNG took 2 of 3 from PHI, the two wins both taking place in extra innings and decided by one run. The Kwaan lost the fina game 9-7 but are just 4 back of OSA. The Fever's loser in both extra inning games was LHP M Buehrle, totalling 2 IP, 5 hits and 2 ER. Buehrle's corpse is now 0-6, 8.62.
- Despite SCO taking 2 of 3 from HAL, PAR is on the verge of running away and hiding with their 7-game winning streak. The Pimpernels swept BED behind CF R Robinson's 8-12, 4 HR, 2 doubles and a stolen base.

News and Notes: Friday, May 26, 2017

Around SLB this week:

- PAR is the hottest team in SLB right now (8-2 in their last 10) with 5 wins in a row. They moved to 2 games up on SCO in the Euro with 2 wins each over TAI and KYO, allowing just 5 runs in the four games. 3B S Dinkman went 9-18 with 2 doubles and a triple and is now hitting .352 on the season.
- Moving in the opposite direction is the former Far East leading KYO. The Bushido have fallen to third place and are now closer to last than first. The Bushido have the 4th lowest ERA (4.03) but can't hit - .230 is the lowest team batting average in SLB by 16 points.
- OSA has crushed its way to a 10 game lead and gets LF R Brown back in under a month. Brown hit 50 HR last season but had just 3 AB's in 2017. Despite being a hitters mecca, 7 teams have a worse ERA than OSA (4.64).
- CHNG 2B Cap Jackson rehabbed successfully from a broken neck and is playing the best baseball of his career. Jackson is at .281 (career .254) with 27 SB. But the Kwaan continue to struggle with LF J Belinda 58 points under his career average and only 4 HR and the 4th worst ERA in SLB (4.88).
- Is ATL finally making their move? The Flyers have played .500 their past 10 and are now just a half game back of third place BAL. "If you're going to play lousy baseball it's better to do it now then in September," said hitting coach Dennis Dennis Sr. "San Juan hasn't been able to run away and hide yet. We'll be there at the end of the year, mark my words."
- SJ's RP Edwin Jackson is up to his old tricks. He's once again the league leader in saves (12) with a 2.35 ERA. "Our guys think he's back to doctoring the ball," said ATL hitting coach Dennis Dennis Sr. "We just faced him on Tuesday and he's pitching like he was last year - not like he was doing earlier in the year. We'll catch him, don't worry. He'll get his comeuppance, if you will."
- CLE split a 2-game series with PHI and then followed HAL's lead by mistreating BAL. The Dawgs are a surprising 29-20 and just 2.5 out of first in the North. CF D Stubbs has been a total bust in Cleveland and has been sent to work on his game and mindset in AAA. "We knew he was a .300 hitter," said Manager Joe Torre. "We just didn't think it would be in Triple-A."

News and Notes: Monday, May 15, 2017

Around SLB this week:

- BAL was 18-7 early this season. That seems so long ago, as the Panthers dropped 15 straight before winning their final game v PAR Sunday night. BAL has scored the 7th most runs but have the 5th worst ERA (4.94), in which most of the embarrassing performances are coming from the bullpen. Among the starters though, LHP Oliver Perez has just 2 QS in 8 opportunities.
- TAI continued their strategy of "Winning? Not interested, thanks" after dealing RP F Rodney (3.27 ERA)to ATL in a multi-player swap. After the trade was announced, SP R Mexico went ballistic in the dressing room. "Let's face it, we're a farm team. We'll draft guys and when they develop, trade them to a real team. I know I'll be out of here too - if they don't trade me I'll walk at the end of the year. We should change our team colors to all-white 'cause from management on down, we just @#*%ing surrender."
- The Nick Swisher experiment has ended in BED. After going 2-7 with a double and HR in three games v CHNG, GM Rich Gin traded their big free-agent signing to SCO for AAA 3B R Zimmerman. Zimmerman was hitting .312 in Stockholm while Swisher was hitting .250 with 5 HR for the Crunch.
- At 15-25, ATL is 12.5 back of red hot SJ. SJ is 17-2 in their last 19 buy GM J Masters of the Flyers isn't backing down. Sources inside the Flyers head office say Masters is going ahead with plans to print tickets for not just the playoffs but the World Series as well. "We think it's premature but he's confident in his team. He's dug himself a hole ... but with Zambrano getting his ERA down (4.11 ed) he thinks we're a lock. If we disagree with him in private or in public, he sacks us."
- In HAL's 2 game sweep of ATL before sweeping doormat TAI, the Sailors lost 2B (and RHOY favourite) for 4-6 months. Reporters couldn't get GM Lars Cain to comment but did hear constant sobbing coming from the GM's office.
- KYO's 2 big free agent signings aren't faring too well. RF J Reed (8M per) is hitting just .234 with a .649 OPS on a team that needs him desperately to provide offense. And 35 year-old SP J Peavy has a 5.80 ERA with 74 baserunners in 50 IP.
- Preseason favourite LON was the latest victim of SJ and has now lost 5 straight. After winning 97 games last year and adding RF D Young, the Knights are now last in the Euro, 6 games back of SCO.

News and Notes: Friday, May 5, 2017

Around SLB this week:

- Although LON's SS J Reyes was struggling to start the season, the Knights certainly didn't want to be without him for any length of time. But in Wednesday's win against PAR, Reyes fractured his hip sliding safely into second base (his 3rd double of the game). Reyes, a career .302 hitter with 496 SB's, is out for 2-3 months. "Not what the team needed right now," said Reyes. "And I'm a free agent after this season and really wanted to put up some numbers to help the team win." Look for Knights GM Sean O'Hallaran to explore the trade market rather than go with 24 year-old T Hernandez, a career .218 hitter with a .267 slugging percentage.
- TAI has the second worst team ERA (5.49) due to horrible, and not entirely unexpected, showings by pitchers T Unger, T Redding, J Palm, P Tsamis, J Davis and T Johnson, all of whom have ERA's 5.40 or greater. "That makes it tough to win ballgames," said Manager Billy Heywood. "But when you get shutout twice in the last four games, that doesn't help either." The Tai Fong scored a total of 6 runs in their past 4 games.
- TAI has hit 25 HR as a team. OSA's C Rockwell and T Montana have hit a combined 24. The Ronin, 6-4 in their last 10, are just a half game back of KYO in the Far East.
- As expected, KYO's LF A Mule is raking for the Bushido (.328, 8 HR) but he can't make up for the miserable performances by SS B BooYa (.234), 3B E See (.225) and RF J Reed (.246). The bench players aren't providing any help either, and KYO is 14th in runs scored.
- BAL's slide (6 straight losses) has coincided with SJ's hot streak (8-2 in their last 10). SJ is now a game up in the South. The Senadores have a huge lead in the SB department, with 69. CHNG and LON are tied for 2nd with 39 apiece.
- Despite a whopping 5.82 ERA, PAR is tied for 1st in the Euro. The Pimpernels have scored the most runs in SLB (188) and are second to OSA in HR with 51.
- Last in runs scored so far is .... ATL (111)? The 9-21 Flyers (last in the South) are getting a monster season out of CF D Lemming (1.137 OPS) who may still be a candidate for MVP even if the Flyers continue to flounder.
- BED continues to mash (46 HR and 4th in RS)and now has a 1.5 game lead in the North. CF T Johnson is the only player to appear on both the HR leader list (T-3rd) and SB leader list (T-7th). In fact, the only categories where Johnson doesn't appear are: doubles, RBI's, walks and strikeouts.

News and Notes: Monday, May 1, 2017

Around SLB this week:

- Picked in the preseason to be, at a minimum, a Series contender, ATL has given GM Jim Masters fits this spring. The Flyers sit at 8-18 and in the South cellar. The team is 100% healthy and with excuses being offered up by players, management and media alike, rumors of fingerpointing and clubhouse dissension abound. Has Manager Tony LaRussa lost his players? Who's responsible for 1B John Twain's inability to recognize a pitch at the plate? Twain is hitting .161 with 1 HR after hitting.294 with 25 bombs last year. Is SP Carlos Zambrano being shopped around? The 13M he's making doesn't match up too well with his 1-4, 5.19 line so far. A division rival scout, wishing to remain anonymous says, "His fastball has really straightened out the past couple of seasons. And I'd want to check his birth certificate. There's no way he's only 34."
- Taking the high road since being ripped in the papers by ATL GM Jim Masters, BAL GM Jose Gutierrez sees his team on top of the South. Since busting out of the gate, the Panthers are 5-5 in their last 10 and have pitching coach Joe Nathan giving extra time to RP Erasmo Ramirez (8.58 ERA), SP Oliver Perez (5.72) and SP El Ron Ubardo (4.89). "We need all of those guys to turn it around or pick it up a notch", said Nathan. "We've got a shot at this thing if they perform."
- CHNG SP Mark Prior is just 2-2 this season but those wins have him 1st among active and retired pitchers. Prior's record is 201-96, IRE's CC Sabathia is second at 183 wins.
- SAV 1B Hee Seop Choi is on pace for just 19 HR this season but his 3 HR have put him over the 400 career HR mark.
- More distressing to GM Rich Vohs (Choi is hitting .355) is the performance of ace RH Phillip Humber. Humber is just 2-2, 4.50 and also in the last year of his contract. Humber currently makes 10.25M per season.
- Nine active players currently have over 1000 RBI's (PAR's LF A Dunn just joining the club). Four of them have reached 1000 RBI's with under 400 HR - BAL's D McPherson and V Guerrero, KYO's J Hamilton and BED's J Barfield.

- Did anyone pick BED's Doug Waechter for this seasons Cy Young award? No? The 35 year-old RH picked up his 4th win of the season, going 7.1 IP with 1 hit and 7 K v KYO and is now 4-0, 2.34.

Taipei Keeps Pace With Atlanta in Week 1

The Tai Fong are neck and neck with the Atlanta Flyers early in this 2017 season, matching them win for win. "We're thrilled to be at the same level as a defending division champion," manager Billy Heywood told reporters. "Who would have thought that Ron Mexico would have as many wins as Homer Bailey, Larry Kargel the same number of homers as John Twain, and Kevin Whelan the same number of saves as K-Rod?

"We're right where we want to be, competing day in and day out and matching the mighty Flyers win for win."

All-time Standings

As we head into our 14th season, I thought it would be interesting to see where we all fit in the big scheme of things. Here's the records and streaks - the amount of winning or losing seasons in a row. Expansion teams denoted by the world-famous asterisk.

PAR 1178-921 (.561) 3W
OSA 1128-971 (.537) 1L
HAL 1118-982 (.532) 1W
KYO 1115-985 (.531) 2W
IRE 1069-1029 (.510) 5L
*SJ 325-316 (.507) 1W
SAV 1057-1041 (.504) 2W
BED 1056-1042 (.503) 2L
ATL 1051-1047 (.501) 7W
PHI 1045-1055 (.498) 4W
CHNG 1043-1055 (.497) 2W
SCO 993-1095 (.473) 1L
LON 891-1048 (.460) 2W
CLE 953-1135 (.454) 5L
BAL 944-1154 (.450) 1L
*TAI 258-382 (.403) 4L

Something that may jump out at you is that OSA, led by GM Tom Hey, has no titles despite having the second best winning percentage. That's got to be depressing. And for all of Atlanta's GM Jim Masters chirping and criticism in the press of other teams, he has barely won 50% of his teams games.
Four teams have one SLB World Series trophy: LV (now Scotland), PHI, HAV, ATL and SJ.
Multiple Series winners: PAR, SAV, HAL.

HSH: Atlanta Flyers

Atlanta Flyers

Atlanta ended the 2016 regular season with an 89-71 record, good for first place in the south, but just two games ahead of second place San Juan and only eleven games ahead of last place Baltimore. The way things are in the South, that’s more of a statement about the strength of the division than an indictment of the Flyers. The South had three teams finish with winning records last year, the only division that can make that claim.

What does that mean for Atlanta? Well, first off it meant that general manager Jim Masters had his work cut out for him in the offseason. In what might be the League’s most cutthroat division, Masters had to find a way to stay under budget and resign Homer Bailey, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano. That trio promised to pull in a sum that would just about equal, for instance, Taipei’s entire payroll. Surely the Flyers would have to kiss one of the big three good bye, right? Especially after Prior’s name had been bandied about in trade talks in the months leading up to the auction.

Not so fast, my friend. Bailey was resigned first, at $15 million a year. Next up was Zambrano, who Masters locked up for $13 million a season. Finally it was Prior, whom Masters matched on a three-year, $45 million dollar contract. That’s a lot of skrilla, but it’s also a lot of W’s (a combined 110-60 over the last three years). Match them up with Darren Lemming and you’ve got over $60 million committed to four players. For comparison’s sake, Taipei is currently rocking a payroll of $40 million…for its entire roster. Granted, that explains why Atlanta is a perennial favorite and Taipei is, well, Taipei.

So anyway, regardless of the results in Atlanta, that is a lot of money to entrust to 10 percent of your 40-man roster. But take a closer look and you’ll see where it makes sense. Masters only has one guy (Lemming) that he needs to resign before Prior, Zambrano and Bailey are up for auction again, and by that time, Prior and Zambrano will be nearing 40 years old, meaning he can leave one (or both) unprotected in order to restrict catcher Jeff Clement. With young guns Al Krieger and Ryan Tucker waiting in the wings, Atlanta’s rotation will be a strength for the next three years, if not longer.

As for the offense, there’s talent there, but it’s not overflowing. A few years back, this team looked like an unstoppable force. They fell more towards the middle of the pack in 2016, but any lineup with Lemming isn’t one to sneeze at. Clement is poised for a breakout season and we all got a taste of what Gregory Golson can do (42 homeruns last year). Outside of that, there’s a lot of questions. Atlanta’s not running castoffs out there or anything, but there’s a definite drop off in talent once you get past Lemming, Clement and Golson. The good news is that Masters has a lot of middle-infield and outfield options, so if something’s not working, he shouldn’t have to stick with it for too long.

So what does that mean for 2017 (that was a dope rhyme, by the way)? Well, they aren’t going to win 100 games or anything, but the Flyers’ offense is as good as any in the division and its pitching is potentially as good as there is in the league. Expect anywhere from 85-to-95 wins and another playoff berth.

Projected lineup

1. Smaza, Curt R 2B

2. Javery, Kevin R SS

3. Lemming, Darren L CF

4. Golson, Gregory R LF

5. Clement, Jeff L C

6. Brady, Josh R RF

7. Twain, John S 1B

8. Jacobo, Edwin R 3B

Outlook

Two rookies (Smaza and Javery) at the top of the lineup? It’s what I would do. Berroa might have earned another year at short stop after hitting 28 home runs last year, but historically he’s been pretty bad. The middle of the lineup is fearsome, so if the front and back ends produce, this team could score in bushels.

Projected Rotation

1. Bailey, Homer R

2. Prior, Mark R

3. Zambrano, Carlos R

4. Tucker, Ryan R

5. Krieger, Al R

Outlook

Extremely right handed, but talent is talent and you can’t argue with this group. Zambrano and Prior embark on what might be their final contracts while Bailey, who just signed his first big deal, leads the youth brigade. Krieger could be the favorite for Rookie Pitcher of the Year. Basically, there isn’t a weakness here, no matter how hard you look.

Atlanta Becomes Big Spender

Interesting developments in Atlanta this off-season, as the Flyers are making a statement about winning. After years of following the "draft and develop" model, GM Jim Masters has opened the coffers to keep his top-tier free agents.

In the past, Masters has traded products of his farm system before they started asking for the big bucks, as there was always someone cheaper in the pipeline. Will Hunting, Troy Paris, and Dennis Dennis Jr. were sent off to save some money and restock the farm system.

But last year, CF Darren Lemming, arguably the best player in SLB history, was up for free agency, and in a surprising move, Atlanta showed him the money, ponying up $52.5 million over three years to retain the three-time MVP. The change in philosophy made a statement to Flyer fans that the team was willing to invest in a long term drive for another championship.

Lemming's contract, however, led many to believe that Masters would have to let one of his big three pitchers go this off season. With $17.75 million invested in one player, how could they retain Bailey, Prior and Zambrano, all of whom would command 8-figure salaries?

$43 million later, all three are signed to new, 3-year deals in a huge move by Masters. Kyoto GM Darin Keesing had the most money to spend this year, and pushed the contract talks on Bailey and Prior to $15 million/year, but Masters used his matching power on his RFA's and stuck with the horses who have given him seven consecutive winning seasons. Zambrano, an unrestricted free agent, also chose to stick with Atlanta.

The Flyers have committed over $60 million of their $82.5 million salary cap to four players in 2017. In the past, Masters would have cut Zambrano or Prior loose, promoted an top prospect like Al Krieger or Peanuts Plantier, and rolled the dice that his farm system's success would give him enough for another division title. Is the new strategy of investing in free agents a statement about winning, or a new lack of faith in the farm system?

The gamble is that the team will a) increase next year's cap with post-season success and b) none of the big-ticket players will win the MVP or Cy Young. With just the $500k Angel Berroa coming off the books next season plus arbitration raises due to Hernandez, Tucker, Clement, Jacobo, Yenkel, Twain and Brady, Masters may be forced to trade one of his All-Stars anyways. The window for the championship seems to be now.