Season Preview - Atlanta Flyers

2017 Record: 76-84
Key Additions: 3B Chest Rockwell
Key Losses: Barry Zito
2018 Prediction: 85-75

2017 was a season that Flyers fans would rather forget. The team started slow and never got on track, finishing with their worst record since 2009. The once youth-rich Atlanta club has started seeing their home-grown players take the money and run, and the well has dried up a bit in Charleston. In addition, the rest of the division has caught up a bit to the Flyers, with San Juan mimicking their model to a tee. At this point, this isn't a 90 win team, and the team philosophy has started to crack; despite the most rookies on any 40-man roster in the league, Atlanta has over $78 million (of their $82.5 million payroll) tied into five players. With exactly $0 of wiggle room under his cap, GM Jim Masters has the stress of hoping his big stars do well, but not so well that they win a post-season award and destroy his carefully planned finances.

Batting Order

CF Gregory Burns
2B Curt Smaza
SS James Ewing
LF Darren Lemming
3B Chest Rockwell
1B Justin Morneau
C Jeffrey Clement
RF Josh Brady

While Darren Lemming and Chest Rockwell is about the scariest 1-2 punch you can think of in the middle of a batting order, the chance of their being a lot of guys on base in front of them seems slim. Burns is getting his first shot at full-time work after collecting about 400 PA's in his rookie year, and #3 hitter James Ewing struck out 136 times in 690 AB's. Jeff Clement is a scary good catcher, but he can't seem to stay healthy. Justin Morneau is certainly serviceable, but the aging veteran's good numbers only serve to hide the fact that John Twain isn't developing the way the team would like.

Pitching Rotation: Homer Bailey, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Tucker, Al Krieger, Corey Wade
Closer: Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez

There's no doubt that Bailey will be a Cy Young contender if healthy. Zambrano is always a coin flip (9-16 last year is not what they need again). Tucker is an underrated young arm, Corey Wade is just not good. Rookie Al Krieger (1st Round Pick out of U. of Miami, 2013) was 9-4, 3.01 last year in AAA (and 42-15 overall in 4 minor league seasons) and hopes to make up for the recent losses of Prior and Zito. The bullpen is not a team strength (outside of closer K-Rod).

This seems to be a "litmus test" type season in Atlanta; let's see what this team is made of and if another run of Atlanta dominance is on the horizon.

Atlanta Becomes Big Spender

Interesting developments in Atlanta this off-season, as the Flyers are making a statement about winning. After years of following the "draft and develop" model, GM Jim Masters has opened the coffers to keep his top-tier free agents.

In the past, Masters has traded products of his farm system before they started asking for the big bucks, as there was always someone cheaper in the pipeline. Will Hunting, Troy Paris, and Dennis Dennis Jr. were sent off to save some money and restock the farm system.

But last year, CF Darren Lemming, arguably the best player in SLB history, was up for free agency, and in a surprising move, Atlanta showed him the money, ponying up $52.5 million over three years to retain the three-time MVP. The change in philosophy made a statement to Flyer fans that the team was willing to invest in a long term drive for another championship.

Lemming's contract, however, led many to believe that Masters would have to let one of his big three pitchers go this off season. With $17.75 million invested in one player, how could they retain Bailey, Prior and Zambrano, all of whom would command 8-figure salaries?

$43 million later, all three are signed to new, 3-year deals in a huge move by Masters. Kyoto GM Darin Keesing had the most money to spend this year, and pushed the contract talks on Bailey and Prior to $15 million/year, but Masters used his matching power on his RFA's and stuck with the horses who have given him seven consecutive winning seasons. Zambrano, an unrestricted free agent, also chose to stick with Atlanta.

The Flyers have committed over $60 million of their $82.5 million salary cap to four players in 2017. In the past, Masters would have cut Zambrano or Prior loose, promoted an top prospect like Al Krieger or Peanuts Plantier, and rolled the dice that his farm system's success would give him enough for another division title. Is the new strategy of investing in free agents a statement about winning, or a new lack of faith in the farm system?

The gamble is that the team will a) increase next year's cap with post-season success and b) none of the big-ticket players will win the MVP or Cy Young. With just the $500k Angel Berroa coming off the books next season plus arbitration raises due to Hernandez, Tucker, Clement, Jacobo, Yenkel, Twain and Brady, Masters may be forced to trade one of his All-Stars anyways. The window for the championship seems to be now.