What happened last year: While Halifax and London won their divisions by double digits, and Taipei won the Far East's battle of attrition, Atlanta and San Juan actually had a competitive, well-played fight to the finish.
In the end, Atlanta finished on top, going 98-62, four games ahead of San Juan's 94-66 mark.
Baltimore? Need you even ask? The Panthers finished 77-83. Savannah ended in last, with a 73-87 record.
The Flyers and the Senadores fought tooth and nail till the final day of the regular season — and then fought some more in the first round of the playoffs. Atlanta knocked out SJ four games to one before bowing out to Halifax in the ALCS.
For the Flyers in the regular season, it was more of the same. Darren Lemming continued his assault on the record books, Curt Smaza (34 home runs) and Justin Morneau (32) cranked out over 30 bombs, the Flyers scored 1004 runs (not a typo), and, oh yeah, Homer Bailey and Carlos Zambrano combined for a 36-13 record.
For the negatives ... Ryan Tucker and Al Krieger, long assumed to be the heirs to the Bailey/Zambrano throne, struggled a bit. Tucker finished with a 4.26 ERA and Krieger went 10-16 with a 5.83 mark. God bless run support, Tucker went 17-5.
San Juan's offense was quite as high-powered as the Flyers' (the Senadores crossed the plate 876 times, good for sixth in SLB) but they scored enough to tide over a pretty fierce staff (4.61 ERA, good for fifth in the league).
Shortstop Floyd Larkin pulled a Diego Clemente and hit 39 home runs with 140 RBIs and 28 stolen bases. And he didn't even lead the team in OPS. Left fielder Matt Musser hit .345 with 25 homers and 27 triples, good for an OPS of 1.001. As if that weren't enough, he stole 62 bases, too.
Jeff Niemann finally lived up to his potential, going 17-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 223 strikeouts and Kevin Thompson, acquired in a trade from Taipei (who acquired him in a trade from CHNG), finished 11-10 but posted a 3.48 ERA.
Oh Baltimore. It has to be hard being the Panthers. They got years out of Frank Vanderwal (.348 average!!!!??), Albert Pujols, Dallas McPherson and John Atwood that the fans had been clamoring for. Dennis Tankersly, Zach Putnam and Ben Cepeda pitched very well, the bullpen was, at worst, average, and yet the Panthers had to wake up every day in the same division with Atlanta and San Juan.
Same for Savannah. They had the same ERA as San Juan (and 0.01 better than Atlanta, too), but scored 108 fewer runs than the Senadores. What does that get you? See: last place.
The Sabres' offense hit just 195 homers, fewer than every team except Taipei (182) and Halifax (187). Ironically, both those teams went to the postseason. Their offense was "led" by Miguel Cabrera (who underperformed) and the two-headed monster of Zach Tobin and Brandon Leahy. Not exactly fearsome.
Phillip Humber (15-7, 3.36 ERA, 199 Ks) was one of the better pitchers in the entire league and Dontrelle Willis made 22 starts and posted a 2.90 ERA.
What happened in the offseason: Not a whole hell of a lot, honestly. Despite a run made by Osaka at Darren Lemming (would he have hit 100 homers for the Ronin?), Atlanta matched an unprecedented $20 million deal. Atlanta also matched on K-Rod, while San Juan matched on Jeff Niemann and watched late-season pick up Kevin Thompson go. Savannah signed John Mayberry, the only move of note that the Sabers (and Baltimore, for that matter) made.
What will happen in 2019: Atlanta will get better pitching from Tucker and Krieger and will again hold off San Juan by just a few games, while Baltimore and Savannah will finish well below the two standard bearers. Lemming will continue his assault on the record books and will finish the season with over 450 home runs.
Top 5 pitchers:
Homer Bailey, Atlanta
Zach Putnam, Baltimore
Phillip Humber, Savannah
Carlos Zambrano, Atlanta
Jeff Niemann, San Juan
Top 5 hitters:
Darren Lemming, Atlanta
Floyd Larkin, San Juan
Matt Musser, San Juan
D2J, San Juan
Miguel Cabrera, Savannah
Top 5 prospects
Josh Rodriguez, Atlanta
Morton Henrikksen, Atlanta
Anthony Rodriguez, San Juan
Charlie Proly, San Juan
Virgil Johnson, Baltimore
Predicted order of finish
Atlanta, San Juan, Savannah, Baltimore
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Hot Stove Heater: American League South (Darin)
What happened last year: San Juan and Atlanta battled in the most hotly contested division race in the league, with the Flyers hanging on in the end and the Senadores snatching the wildcard. Neither won the pennant. Baltimore showed some improvement, posting a winning record on the road (and vs. the WL) but they failed to finish with a winning record for the 13th straight year. Savannah brought up the rear after a down year from several key players. Atlanta superstar Darren Lemming won his 4th MVP award and the league's first ever Triple Crown with his ludicrous .381, 54, 145 line. Homer Bailey had another Cy Young caliber season (17 wins, 251 K's) while Zambrano won 19. Baltimore saw three veterans hang it up after the season; Pujols, Guerrero and McPherson all called it a day, with the latter making the Hall of Fame. Surprisingly good starting pitching on the Panthers kept them respectable. San Juan's young offense clicked all year, with Larkin putting up legit MVP numbers. Five San Juan pitchers eclipsed 10 wins. Savannah's offense was anemic, finishing last in the AL in runs and homers. Phillip Humber was dominating as usual, and reliever Wade Townsand managed to collect 16 decisions in just 80 IP.
What happened in the offseason: The South saw some pitching head overseas. Baltimore veteran Dennis Tankersly signed with Paris, while San Juan hurler Kevin Thompson inked a deal in Ireland. The Panthers signed Jed Lowrie, who put up great numbers in the spring and will replace McPherson. After leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, Atlanta sent a draft pick to Ireland to reacquire Rene Delmas, who is penciled into their rotation despite getting roughed up this spring. San Juan continued to shop Dennis Dennis around, but has had no takers.
What will happen this year: Looks like more of the same, though San Juan looks the best on paper. Their offense is hitting their prime and the starting pitching is the best top to bottom. Atlanta will have a terrific offense, but the back end of the rotation and bullpen are looking like danger spots. Seeing Guerrero and McPherson retire is probably a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, who have failed to fully commit to a youth movement. We'll see if their young and talented rotation can finally get the team a winning record. Savannah needs a lot of help and will continue to struggle; expect them to be active on the trade market.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Homer Bailey (ATL), 2. Zach Putnam (BAL), 3. Phillip Humber (SAV), 4. Carlos Zambrano (ATL), 5. Alvin Dailey (SJ)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. CF Darren Lemming (ATL), 2. SS Floyd Larkin (SJ), 3. RF Dennis Dennis Jr. (SJ), 4.CF Buzz Bliss (SJ), 5. 2B Curt Smaza (ATL)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. 3B Josh Rodriguez (ATL), 2. SP Anthony Rodriguez (SJ), 3. SP Chico Salazar (SAV), 4. RF Charlie Proly (SJ), 5. SP Peanuts Plantier (ATL)
Order of Finish: 1. SJ, 2. ATL, 3. BAL, 4. SAV
What happened in the offseason: The South saw some pitching head overseas. Baltimore veteran Dennis Tankersly signed with Paris, while San Juan hurler Kevin Thompson inked a deal in Ireland. The Panthers signed Jed Lowrie, who put up great numbers in the spring and will replace McPherson. After leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, Atlanta sent a draft pick to Ireland to reacquire Rene Delmas, who is penciled into their rotation despite getting roughed up this spring. San Juan continued to shop Dennis Dennis around, but has had no takers.
What will happen this year: Looks like more of the same, though San Juan looks the best on paper. Their offense is hitting their prime and the starting pitching is the best top to bottom. Atlanta will have a terrific offense, but the back end of the rotation and bullpen are looking like danger spots. Seeing Guerrero and McPherson retire is probably a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, who have failed to fully commit to a youth movement. We'll see if their young and talented rotation can finally get the team a winning record. Savannah needs a lot of help and will continue to struggle; expect them to be active on the trade market.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Homer Bailey (ATL), 2. Zach Putnam (BAL), 3. Phillip Humber (SAV), 4. Carlos Zambrano (ATL), 5. Alvin Dailey (SJ)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. CF Darren Lemming (ATL), 2. SS Floyd Larkin (SJ), 3. RF Dennis Dennis Jr. (SJ), 4.CF Buzz Bliss (SJ), 5. 2B Curt Smaza (ATL)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. 3B Josh Rodriguez (ATL), 2. SP Anthony Rodriguez (SJ), 3. SP Chico Salazar (SAV), 4. RF Charlie Proly (SJ), 5. SP Peanuts Plantier (ATL)
Order of Finish: 1. SJ, 2. ATL, 3. BAL, 4. SAV
Hot Stove Heater: American League North (Dylan)
Dylan
What happened in 2018: Halifax ran away with the division, winning 98 games - second most in SLB - and eventually taking the World Series four games to three over Paris. The Sailors swung a masterful deal in June, dealing, well, not much of anything to Chiang for Mark Prior. The big righty had struggled in the Far East, but righted his ship once he made the move and helped Halifax to its first championship since 2012. The Sailors got strong seasons from basically their entire offense and received fantastic years from Prior (13-10, 3.77 ERA), Cy Young winnerJohan Santana (20-1, 3.34) and El Ron Ubardo (13-8, 3.35).
Bedford and Philly finished with identical 77-83 records and missed the playoffs. The Fever put on an offensive show, Andy Hunter (53 home runs, 143 RBIs, 112 runs) supplied most of the power while Jay Bruce (.349 average, 144 runs, 44 doubles, 30 triples, 36 home runs, 105 RBIs and 36 stolen bases) turned in one of the most complete seasons in SLB history and won the division's MVP award. Where did it go wrong? No pitcher had an ERA under 4.52. When your best ERA is turned in by a guy named Phil Coughty, you know you're in trouble. Rich Harden disappointed with a 5.32 ERA - his worst since 2005. The pitching staff erased any chance of a Fever postseason.
For Bedford, its problems appropriately mirrored Philly's. The offense was solid - though not as spectacular as the Fever's - but the pitching staff fell apart. Luke Hochevar (9-7, 3.32) was great and Ted Striker was solid (12-9, 4.06) but the Crunch failed to get meaningful innings out of any other pitcher until Connors Graham tossed 18.2 innings of 1.93 ERA ball late in the season.
Todric Johnson (.326/.371/.610) mashed and Basil Elton-John smoked 35 home runs in just 477 at bats, but the hitting couldn't overcome the meager pitching.
Where to start for Cleveland? They won just 69 games, worst in the American League. Their offense was middle of the road. Their pitching? In a word, it was miserable. Only Osaka (6.64) had a worse ERA than the Dawgs' 5.72 mark. Mike Miller was the "headliner" with his 13-11, 4.54 performance. Someone named Chas Keohane was allowed to log 110 innings of 7.28 ERA, a number that would make even Osaka wince. More embarrassing than even that woeful mark was the 72.1 innings of 10.58 (TEN FIFTY EIGHT) ERA that Maurice Rodriguez threw up (literally). This staff's performance better have cost someone a job, that's all I can say.
The offense fared much better. Tex Austin (.313/.374/.625, 48-126) had a fantastic season, Alex Hildebrand stole 34 bases and hit .331/.372/.591 with 32 home runs and when healthy, catcher Neil Walker (.342/.405/.578) mashed.
On the flipside, Juan Pierre hit .205 but was somehow allowed to steal 293 at bats. Overall, it was just a disaster for Cleveland.
What happened in the offseason: Halifax, riding high off its championship season, re-signed Justin Upton, grabbed reliever Tim Gudex out of Kyoto and signed Josh Barfield. They did let Ubardo go out east to Taipei, but pitching was not their problem last year and Gudex will help shore up their bullpen.
Philly re-signed third baseman Evan Longoria, whose talent has never matched his production, and in an appropriate move, signed Doug Waechter from Bedford. The Crunch tossed deals at mediocre pitching, apparently hoping to steal the San Juan playbook of "hit a lot and get pitching performances from nobodies" while Cleveland grabbed reliever Reed Rothchild to strengthen the pen and got a potential steal in signing the always-disappointing but apparently renewed Matt Bush for under $2 million a season.
What will happen in 2019: Halifax will again run away with the division. That's it in a nutshell. They won 21 more games than anyone else in the North last year and they should do it again this year. I wouldn't say that they got appreciably better from last season to this season, but they didn't get worse and that should get it done considering that no one else in the division got better, either. Philly and Bedford still can't pitch and neither can Cleveland. Someone tell Sailors' GM Larsen Cain to set his alarm for when the playoffs start. He can nap until then.
Predicted order of finish:
Halifax, Philly, Bedford, Cleveland.
Top 5 pitchers
Mark Prior - Halifax
Johan Santana - Halifax
Luke Hochevar - Bedford
Justin Verlander - Halifax
Rich Harden - Philly
Top 5 Hitters
1. Jay Bruce - Philly
2. Tex Austin - Cleveland
3. Andy Hunter - Philly
4. Justin Upton - Halifax
5. Alex Hildebrand - Cleveland
Top 5 prospects
1. Jason Wilber - Philly
2. Samuel Archibald - Halifax
3. Hunter Johnson - Bedord
4. Dante Bichette Jr. - Cleveland
5. Greg Moore - Halifax
What happened in 2018: Halifax ran away with the division, winning 98 games - second most in SLB - and eventually taking the World Series four games to three over Paris. The Sailors swung a masterful deal in June, dealing, well, not much of anything to Chiang for Mark Prior. The big righty had struggled in the Far East, but righted his ship once he made the move and helped Halifax to its first championship since 2012. The Sailors got strong seasons from basically their entire offense and received fantastic years from Prior (13-10, 3.77 ERA), Cy Young winnerJohan Santana (20-1, 3.34) and El Ron Ubardo (13-8, 3.35).
Bedford and Philly finished with identical 77-83 records and missed the playoffs. The Fever put on an offensive show, Andy Hunter (53 home runs, 143 RBIs, 112 runs) supplied most of the power while Jay Bruce (.349 average, 144 runs, 44 doubles, 30 triples, 36 home runs, 105 RBIs and 36 stolen bases) turned in one of the most complete seasons in SLB history and won the division's MVP award. Where did it go wrong? No pitcher had an ERA under 4.52. When your best ERA is turned in by a guy named Phil Coughty, you know you're in trouble. Rich Harden disappointed with a 5.32 ERA - his worst since 2005. The pitching staff erased any chance of a Fever postseason.
For Bedford, its problems appropriately mirrored Philly's. The offense was solid - though not as spectacular as the Fever's - but the pitching staff fell apart. Luke Hochevar (9-7, 3.32) was great and Ted Striker was solid (12-9, 4.06) but the Crunch failed to get meaningful innings out of any other pitcher until Connors Graham tossed 18.2 innings of 1.93 ERA ball late in the season.
Todric Johnson (.326/.371/.610) mashed and Basil Elton-John smoked 35 home runs in just 477 at bats, but the hitting couldn't overcome the meager pitching.
Where to start for Cleveland? They won just 69 games, worst in the American League. Their offense was middle of the road. Their pitching? In a word, it was miserable. Only Osaka (6.64) had a worse ERA than the Dawgs' 5.72 mark. Mike Miller was the "headliner" with his 13-11, 4.54 performance. Someone named Chas Keohane was allowed to log 110 innings of 7.28 ERA, a number that would make even Osaka wince. More embarrassing than even that woeful mark was the 72.1 innings of 10.58 (TEN FIFTY EIGHT) ERA that Maurice Rodriguez threw up (literally). This staff's performance better have cost someone a job, that's all I can say.
The offense fared much better. Tex Austin (.313/.374/.625, 48-126) had a fantastic season, Alex Hildebrand stole 34 bases and hit .331/.372/.591 with 32 home runs and when healthy, catcher Neil Walker (.342/.405/.578) mashed.
On the flipside, Juan Pierre hit .205 but was somehow allowed to steal 293 at bats. Overall, it was just a disaster for Cleveland.
What happened in the offseason: Halifax, riding high off its championship season, re-signed Justin Upton, grabbed reliever Tim Gudex out of Kyoto and signed Josh Barfield. They did let Ubardo go out east to Taipei, but pitching was not their problem last year and Gudex will help shore up their bullpen.
Philly re-signed third baseman Evan Longoria, whose talent has never matched his production, and in an appropriate move, signed Doug Waechter from Bedford. The Crunch tossed deals at mediocre pitching, apparently hoping to steal the San Juan playbook of "hit a lot and get pitching performances from nobodies" while Cleveland grabbed reliever Reed Rothchild to strengthen the pen and got a potential steal in signing the always-disappointing but apparently renewed Matt Bush for under $2 million a season.
What will happen in 2019: Halifax will again run away with the division. That's it in a nutshell. They won 21 more games than anyone else in the North last year and they should do it again this year. I wouldn't say that they got appreciably better from last season to this season, but they didn't get worse and that should get it done considering that no one else in the division got better, either. Philly and Bedford still can't pitch and neither can Cleveland. Someone tell Sailors' GM Larsen Cain to set his alarm for when the playoffs start. He can nap until then.
Predicted order of finish:
Halifax, Philly, Bedford, Cleveland.
Top 5 pitchers
Mark Prior - Halifax
Johan Santana - Halifax
Luke Hochevar - Bedford
Justin Verlander - Halifax
Rich Harden - Philly
Top 5 Hitters
1. Jay Bruce - Philly
2. Tex Austin - Cleveland
3. Andy Hunter - Philly
4. Justin Upton - Halifax
5. Alex Hildebrand - Cleveland
Top 5 prospects
1. Jason Wilber - Philly
2. Samuel Archibald - Halifax
3. Hunter Johnson - Bedord
4. Dante Bichette Jr. - Cleveland
5. Greg Moore - Halifax
Hot Stove Heater: American League North (Darin)
Darin
What happened last year: It was a one horse race for most of the season, with World Champion Halifax clearly a cut above the rest. By season's end, the Sailors were
the only team with a winning record (their 98 wins tied with Atlanta for most in the American League) and they lead the division in both runs and team ERA. Halifax's offense was all about spreading the wealth (damn socialists!!!), with no hitter breaking 100 RBI, but five collecting 80+. The story of the pitching staff was Johan Santana, who won the Cy Young and almost went undefeated for the year. The rest of the rotation all won 11 or more games, while the bullpen managed to bend but not break in close games. Notable performances from other North Division players included Cleveland's explosive young right fielder Tex Austin (48 HR, 126 RBI) and the entire Philly outfield; Hunting, Bruce and Hunter combined for 373 runs, 110 HR and 360 RBI. Amazing. Bedford had good team speed as five different hitters had 20 or more steals.
What happened in the offseason: Not a lot of player movement in the North this offseason. Halifax lost El Ron Ubardo to Taipei, but signed lefty Tim Gudex to a rich contract. Cleveland beefed up it's woeful bullpen with the additions of William Buckner, Brandon Durden and Reed Rothchild, while Philly added Doug Waechter and Bedford rolled the dice on some vets.
What will happen this year: On paper, it looks like Halifax's division to lose again. A full year with Prior, Santana and Verlander in the rotation pegs them as easy favorites, and if they can get some good bullpen performances out of their stockpile of young arms, 90 wins should be easy. Cleveland is going to have a tremendous offense, but will their pitching keep them in games? Young guys like Voorhees and Rule 5 pickup Joe Archer need to step it up in a big way. Philly is due for a rebound after a down year. The offense is great, and if the pitching rotation can skew back to their career averages, the Fever could compete for the wildcard (or, with a trade or two, push Halifax for the division). Bedford....what to say about them? It's the team that under performs every single year. What is it about Brooklyn that sucks the life out of almost every player?
Five Best Pitchers:
1 - Mark Prior (HAL)
2 - Johan Santana (HAL)
3 - Luke Hochevar (BED)
4 - Rich Harden (PHI)
5 - Justin Verlander (HAL)
Five Best Hitters:
1 - Jay Bruce (PHI)
2 - Tex Austin (CLE)
3 - Andy Hunter (PHI)
4 - Will Hunting (PHI)
5 - Alex Hildenbrand (CLE)
Five Best Prospects:
1 - Jason Wilber (3B-PHI)
2 - Samuel Archibald (OF-HAL)
3 - Dante Bichette, Jr. (OF-CLE)
4 - Hunter Johnson (SP-BED)
5 - Ernie Fitzgerald (RP-PHI)
Predicted order of finish:
1 - Halifax
2 - Philly
3 - Cleveland
4 - Bedford
What happened last year: It was a one horse race for most of the season, with World Champion Halifax clearly a cut above the rest. By season's end, the Sailors were
the only team with a winning record (their 98 wins tied with Atlanta for most in the American League) and they lead the division in both runs and team ERA. Halifax's offense was all about spreading the wealth (damn socialists!!!), with no hitter breaking 100 RBI, but five collecting 80+. The story of the pitching staff was Johan Santana, who won the Cy Young and almost went undefeated for the year. The rest of the rotation all won 11 or more games, while the bullpen managed to bend but not break in close games. Notable performances from other North Division players included Cleveland's explosive young right fielder Tex Austin (48 HR, 126 RBI) and the entire Philly outfield; Hunting, Bruce and Hunter combined for 373 runs, 110 HR and 360 RBI. Amazing. Bedford had good team speed as five different hitters had 20 or more steals.
What happened in the offseason: Not a lot of player movement in the North this offseason. Halifax lost El Ron Ubardo to Taipei, but signed lefty Tim Gudex to a rich contract. Cleveland beefed up it's woeful bullpen with the additions of William Buckner, Brandon Durden and Reed Rothchild, while Philly added Doug Waechter and Bedford rolled the dice on some vets.
What will happen this year: On paper, it looks like Halifax's division to lose again. A full year with Prior, Santana and Verlander in the rotation pegs them as easy favorites, and if they can get some good bullpen performances out of their stockpile of young arms, 90 wins should be easy. Cleveland is going to have a tremendous offense, but will their pitching keep them in games? Young guys like Voorhees and Rule 5 pickup Joe Archer need to step it up in a big way. Philly is due for a rebound after a down year. The offense is great, and if the pitching rotation can skew back to their career averages, the Fever could compete for the wildcard (or, with a trade or two, push Halifax for the division). Bedford....what to say about them? It's the team that under performs every single year. What is it about Brooklyn that sucks the life out of almost every player?
Five Best Pitchers:
1 - Mark Prior (HAL)
2 - Johan Santana (HAL)
3 - Luke Hochevar (BED)
4 - Rich Harden (PHI)
5 - Justin Verlander (HAL)
Five Best Hitters:
1 - Jay Bruce (PHI)
2 - Tex Austin (CLE)
3 - Andy Hunter (PHI)
4 - Will Hunting (PHI)
5 - Alex Hildenbrand (CLE)
Five Best Prospects:
1 - Jason Wilber (3B-PHI)
2 - Samuel Archibald (OF-HAL)
3 - Dante Bichette, Jr. (OF-CLE)
4 - Hunter Johnson (SP-BED)
5 - Ernie Fitzgerald (RP-PHI)
Predicted order of finish:
1 - Halifax
2 - Philly
3 - Cleveland
4 - Bedford
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Year End Pythagorean Records
Bill James, famous for his "Baseball Abstract" and advancement of sabermetric baseball statistics, created a formula called Pythagorean Win Expectation. It uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed to calculate how many wins a team "should" have at any given time in a season. The theory is that a team's won-loss record (particularly at year's end) does not necessarily reflect how good or bad that team is.
Comparing a team's actual W-L record to their Pythagorean record can measure how "lucky" or "unlucky" a team is. A great recent example is the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who, despite being outscored by 20 runs by season's end, finished with a record of 90-72 and the NL West Division title. According to their Pythagorean Expecation, they should have finished 79-83, giving them a +11 Luck.
The formula, for those interested, is:
1 / 1 + (Runs Allowed/Runs Scored)^2
This will give you the expected winning %, and, when multiplied by 160 games, will give you the expected # of wins for a team based on their Run Differential (defined as Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed).
Some argue that using a power of 1.81 is more accurate, but for the purpose of this article, we'll keep it simple and use 2.
The following are the final standing for 2018 SLB based on Pythagorean records.
Overall, the software does a good job of keeping teams' records within a reasonable margin to their Pythagorean expectations. Two teams were exactly right, while 4 more were with a win or two of their projected win totals. Impressive.
Only the Far East saw a team "outluck" their way to the playoffs; the actual records between Taipei and Kyoto are 9 games off of what the run differentials say they should be, with Kyoto underperforming their way out of the post season.
Comparing a team's actual W-L record to their Pythagorean record can measure how "lucky" or "unlucky" a team is. A great recent example is the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who, despite being outscored by 20 runs by season's end, finished with a record of 90-72 and the NL West Division title. According to their Pythagorean Expecation, they should have finished 79-83, giving them a +11 Luck.
The formula, for those interested, is:
1 / 1 + (Runs Allowed/Runs Scored)^2
This will give you the expected winning %, and, when multiplied by 160 games, will give you the expected # of wins for a team based on their Run Differential (defined as Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed).
Some argue that using a power of 1.81 is more accurate, but for the purpose of this article, we'll keep it simple and use 2.
The following are the final standing for 2018 SLB based on Pythagorean records.
NORTH DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Halifax Sailors 97 63 905 734 +171 98 62 (+)1
Philly Fever 81 79 895 888 +7 77 83 (-)4
Bedford Crunch 77 83 790 823 -33 77 83 EVEN
Cleveland Dawgs 68 92 811 942 -131 69 91 (+)1
SOUTH DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta Flyers 99 61 1004 785 +219 98 62 (-)1
San Juan Senadores 90 70 876 777 +99 94 66 (+)4
Baltimore Panthers 80 80 787 788 -1 77 83 (-)3
Savannah Sabers 79 81 768 778 -10 73 87 (-)6
EURO DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
London Knights 104 56 954 704 +250 102 58 (-)2
Paris Pimpernels 86 74 889 825 +74 90 70 (+)4
Scotland Rebels 70 90 729 833 -104 78 82 (+)8
Ireland Invaders 52 108 649 936 -287 52 108 EVEN
FAR EAST DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Kyoto Bushido 85 75 800 754 +46 79 81 (-)6
Taipei Tai Fong 80 80 758 765 -7 83 77 (+)3
Chiang Mai Kwaan 78 82 852 869 -17 74 86 (-)4
Osaka Ronin 58 102 821 1085 -264 59 101 (+)1
Overall, the software does a good job of keeping teams' records within a reasonable margin to their Pythagorean expectations. Two teams were exactly right, while 4 more were with a win or two of their projected win totals. Impressive.
Only the Far East saw a team "outluck" their way to the playoffs; the actual records between Taipei and Kyoto are 9 games off of what the run differentials say they should be, with Kyoto underperforming their way out of the post season.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
News & Notes - August 10, 2018
It's been awhile since you've had one of these....
- In an act of utter division vs. division dominance this week, the entire South Division swept the entire Far East Division this past series. The net result was no teams gaining or losing any ground in either division.
- Chiang Mai was the busiest team at the deadline, but all the moves have resulted in disaster. The team has lost 16 of 18 games since 7/21, and 7 of 8 since the trade deadline. The Kwaan are now in 3rd place in the division, 3.5 out of first place and 2.5 out of the wildcard.
- Halifax's Johan Santana remains undefeated, winning his 14th straight decision. His numbers are good but not great, but the Sailors have averaged 7.2 runs in each of his wins this year (he also has 10 no-decisions).
- Atlanta's Darren Lemming has a ludicrous .807 Slugging % this year, racking up 73 extra-base hits in just 353 at-bats. In other words, he gets an extra-base hit in 1 out of every 5 AB's. SICK.
- Another Flyer has an odd stat: OF Gregory Burns leads the league in both runs and strikeouts.
- In career number news:
- Longtime career hits leader Jimmy Rollins (PAR) has been surpassed by SAV's Miguel Cabrera. At 2637 hits, Miggy leads Rollins by 31 knocks.
- Looks like we'll have to wait until 2019 for our first 500 HR hitter. Adam Dunn (age 37) leads with 484 career blasts.
- Rollins does lead in career runs (1512) and is the only SLB hitter to ever eclipse the 1500 run mark.
- KYO's C.C. Sabathia joins Mark Prior (HAL) as the 2nd ever player to reach 200 victories.
- Francisco Rodriguez (ATL) is the first player to pass 200 career saves.
- Josh Beckett (IRE) is just 18 strikeouts from reaching 3000 for his career. Sabathia is 52 K's from the milestone.
- Mark Prior is the first SLB pitcher to reach 3000 IP. Sabathia is 2 or 3 starts from joining him.
- In an act of utter division vs. division dominance this week, the entire South Division swept the entire Far East Division this past series. The net result was no teams gaining or losing any ground in either division.
- Chiang Mai was the busiest team at the deadline, but all the moves have resulted in disaster. The team has lost 16 of 18 games since 7/21, and 7 of 8 since the trade deadline. The Kwaan are now in 3rd place in the division, 3.5 out of first place and 2.5 out of the wildcard.
- Halifax's Johan Santana remains undefeated, winning his 14th straight decision. His numbers are good but not great, but the Sailors have averaged 7.2 runs in each of his wins this year (he also has 10 no-decisions).
- Atlanta's Darren Lemming has a ludicrous .807 Slugging % this year, racking up 73 extra-base hits in just 353 at-bats. In other words, he gets an extra-base hit in 1 out of every 5 AB's. SICK.
- Another Flyer has an odd stat: OF Gregory Burns leads the league in both runs and strikeouts.
- In career number news:
- Longtime career hits leader Jimmy Rollins (PAR) has been surpassed by SAV's Miguel Cabrera. At 2637 hits, Miggy leads Rollins by 31 knocks.
- Looks like we'll have to wait until 2019 for our first 500 HR hitter. Adam Dunn (age 37) leads with 484 career blasts.
- Rollins does lead in career runs (1512) and is the only SLB hitter to ever eclipse the 1500 run mark.
- KYO's C.C. Sabathia joins Mark Prior (HAL) as the 2nd ever player to reach 200 victories.
- Francisco Rodriguez (ATL) is the first player to pass 200 career saves.
- Josh Beckett (IRE) is just 18 strikeouts from reaching 3000 for his career. Sabathia is 52 K's from the milestone.
- Mark Prior is the first SLB pitcher to reach 3000 IP. Sabathia is 2 or 3 starts from joining him.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
2018 All Star Game Was a Joke
While it's no surprise that the All-Star Game usually has a few head-scratchers in the lineup, the 2018 game was full of complete whiffs. SLB has never used fan balloting, stating that their high-powered computer matrix does a better job of picking the teams. Fan voting is prone to homerism and popularity, but the league's system is completely broken.
Let's look at the stats and put together some better starting lineups (hint: this won't be hard to do).
American League
C - Neil Walker (CLE) - The computer got this one right. Walker was hitting .330 and slugging .538 at the break. No other AL catcher was hitting over .300. [CPU - Neil Walker]
1B - Justin Morneau (ATL) - The first of many, many snubs. Morneau had 71 RBI and was slugging .553, both leading all AL first basemen. [CPU - John Atwood (BAL)]
2B - Frank Vanderwal (BAL) - Another pick I can agree with the CPU on. Vanderwal is scalding the ball to the tune of a .361 average and a .609 SLG. [CPU- Frank Vanderwal]
3B - Chest Rockwell (ATL) - Probably the biggest snub on the AL squad. Rockwell hasn't slowed down at all since signing with Atlanta, belting 33 HR and 78 RBI to date. How does he get overlooked? [CPU - Miguel Cabrera (SAV)]
SS - Floyd Larkin (SJ) - Perennial All-Star who did nothing to lose his spot on the team. Nearly a .900 OPS and a team leading 32 BB's. [CPU - Matt Bush (CLE)]
LF - Andy Hunter (PHI) - This was a tough call. The computer took Matt Musser from San Juan, which is a pretty tough guy to argue with. Musser has a better OPS than Hunter, but has just 16 HR, 55 RBI compared to Hunter's 28 HR and 82 RBI. [CPU - Matt Musser (SJ)]
CF - Jay Bruce (PHI) - This is a pretty deep position in the AL. Darren Lemming was the obvious choice, but hit the DL just before the All Star break. Bruce is OPSing 1.021 and just crushing the ball for a ton of extra-base hits. [CPU - Jay Bruce]
RF - Will Hunting (PHI) - Yep, I picked an all-Fever outfield, though you could easily go with all Senadores as well. Hunting is one of the most consistently productive outfielders in recent SLB history. Will he ever win the MVP? [CPU - Will Hunting]
World League
C - Elmer Kennedy (OSKA) - The Ronin rookie has comparable OPS numbers to several other WL catchers, but his run production is better. At 20 HR and 57 RBI, Kennedy has fit right in on the powerful Osaka lineup. [CPU - Al Murphy (IRE)]
1B - Hee-Seop Choi (PAR) - Almost as big a snub as Rockwell in the AL. There are all sorts of great first basemen in the WL (Hamilton, McNulty, Johnson, Posedel) but Choi has been exceptional. [CPU - Mark Hamilton (KYO)]
2B - T.J. Mackey (LON) - Mackey has had an up and down career, but he's been a big part of London's division run so far this year. Gotta love a .561 SLG from a middle infielder. [CPU - Cap Jackson (CHNG)]
3B - Howie Sloat (CHNG) - Where did this guy come from? A .362 average and nearly 80 RBI at the break? How does the CPU bench this guy for Hank frigging Blalock? [CPU - Hank frigging Blalock (SCOT)]
SS - Spaz Dinkman (PAR) - Not much to choose from here. Meh. [CPU - Spaz Dinkman]
LF - Reuben Brown (OSKA) - Finally, the CPU gets something right. Brown has picked up the offensive slack with Montana and Rockwell off on new teams. [CPU - Brown]
CF - Warren McFadden (LON) - This is a legit MVP candidate. His OPS is nearly 1.100. Jesus. [CPU - McFadden]
RF - Joe Belinda (CHNG) - It's a coin flip between Belinda and London's Delmon Young but I took Belinda. So there. [CPU - Delmon Young (LON)]
Let's look at the stats and put together some better starting lineups (hint: this won't be hard to do).
American League
C - Neil Walker (CLE) - The computer got this one right. Walker was hitting .330 and slugging .538 at the break. No other AL catcher was hitting over .300. [CPU - Neil Walker]
1B - Justin Morneau (ATL) - The first of many, many snubs. Morneau had 71 RBI and was slugging .553, both leading all AL first basemen. [CPU - John Atwood (BAL)]
2B - Frank Vanderwal (BAL) - Another pick I can agree with the CPU on. Vanderwal is scalding the ball to the tune of a .361 average and a .609 SLG. [CPU- Frank Vanderwal]
3B - Chest Rockwell (ATL) - Probably the biggest snub on the AL squad. Rockwell hasn't slowed down at all since signing with Atlanta, belting 33 HR and 78 RBI to date. How does he get overlooked? [CPU - Miguel Cabrera (SAV)]
SS - Floyd Larkin (SJ) - Perennial All-Star who did nothing to lose his spot on the team. Nearly a .900 OPS and a team leading 32 BB's. [CPU - Matt Bush (CLE)]
LF - Andy Hunter (PHI) - This was a tough call. The computer took Matt Musser from San Juan, which is a pretty tough guy to argue with. Musser has a better OPS than Hunter, but has just 16 HR, 55 RBI compared to Hunter's 28 HR and 82 RBI. [CPU - Matt Musser (SJ)]
CF - Jay Bruce (PHI) - This is a pretty deep position in the AL. Darren Lemming was the obvious choice, but hit the DL just before the All Star break. Bruce is OPSing 1.021 and just crushing the ball for a ton of extra-base hits. [CPU - Jay Bruce]
RF - Will Hunting (PHI) - Yep, I picked an all-Fever outfield, though you could easily go with all Senadores as well. Hunting is one of the most consistently productive outfielders in recent SLB history. Will he ever win the MVP? [CPU - Will Hunting]
World League
C - Elmer Kennedy (OSKA) - The Ronin rookie has comparable OPS numbers to several other WL catchers, but his run production is better. At 20 HR and 57 RBI, Kennedy has fit right in on the powerful Osaka lineup. [CPU - Al Murphy (IRE)]
1B - Hee-Seop Choi (PAR) - Almost as big a snub as Rockwell in the AL. There are all sorts of great first basemen in the WL (Hamilton, McNulty, Johnson, Posedel) but Choi has been exceptional. [CPU - Mark Hamilton (KYO)]
2B - T.J. Mackey (LON) - Mackey has had an up and down career, but he's been a big part of London's division run so far this year. Gotta love a .561 SLG from a middle infielder. [CPU - Cap Jackson (CHNG)]
3B - Howie Sloat (CHNG) - Where did this guy come from? A .362 average and nearly 80 RBI at the break? How does the CPU bench this guy for Hank frigging Blalock? [CPU - Hank frigging Blalock (SCOT)]
SS - Spaz Dinkman (PAR) - Not much to choose from here. Meh. [CPU - Spaz Dinkman]
LF - Reuben Brown (OSKA) - Finally, the CPU gets something right. Brown has picked up the offensive slack with Montana and Rockwell off on new teams. [CPU - Brown]
CF - Warren McFadden (LON) - This is a legit MVP candidate. His OPS is nearly 1.100. Jesus. [CPU - McFadden]
RF - Joe Belinda (CHNG) - It's a coin flip between Belinda and London's Delmon Young but I took Belinda. So there. [CPU - Delmon Young (LON)]
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