Amateur Draft Analysis - 2015

Over the days leading up to this year's draft, I'll be looking back at the past few drafts for some analysis. What better year to start than 2015, the draft for which this blog was named? Let's dive right in.


2015 - In the third year of SLB's official draft affiliation with the NCAA, the players who were freshmen at the start became draft eligible. The most talked about player in the collegiate ranks was USC shortstop Diego Clemente, a 5-tool player who was being called the next Alex Rodriguez before he ever took a swing. For 3 seasons, it was assumed he would go #1 overall. The only thing that stopped that from happening was Baltimore GM Jose Gutierrez; Panther fans were hoping he'd make up for what they considered a draft day gaffe the year before (taking LHP Zach Putnam #1 overall ahead of sluggers like Al Murphy, Alex Hildenbrand and Antonio Mule). The blue and black Diego Clemente jerseys were being made and ready to ship to every team shop in the greater Baltimore area, but Gutierrez threw another curveball, selecting Auburn starter Ben Cepeda instead, leaving Panther fans on suicide watch and London GM Sean O'Hallaran giddy with disbelief.

Now, looking back, can we still say that Gutierrez's selection was as bad as the critics believed? Let's take a look at the entire first round and see how they have (or haven't) contributed to their teams.


1) BAL - P Ben Cepeda (AUB) - Saddled as the most notorious #1 overall pick since the Texans took Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, Cepeda headed to Miami to prove the critics wrong. His 2016 line was very good for a first year pro: 9-4, 3.88, 123 H, 128 K and only 17 BB in 123 IP. His performance was overshadowed by teammate Zach Putnam, who was shutting his own critics down with a 12-1, 1.59 (and Pitching Prospect of the Year Award) performance of his own.

Cepeda's second season exceeded his first, as the Miami ace finished with a 12-2, 3.15 line. Most impressive was his K rate, as he struck out 137 batters in 117 IP (10.5 K/9IP).

The Baltimore front office was satisfied with Cepeda's progress and inserted him into their major league rotation (along side Putnam) and have seen great results. His run support has been bad, but you can't complain about a 4-5, 2.85 line with a K/IP from a rookie. If Cepeda wins the RPOY award this year, will he finally be able to silence his critics? Does Jose get any credit for making the unpopular choice?

2) LON - SS Diego Clemente (USC) - After an All-American Team selection as a junior, Clemente was snatched up by London. He never spent a day in the minor leagues. After a quick Rookie League warm up, Clemente jumped straight into the Knights' lineup in 2016 (playing 3B) and ran away with the Rookie Hitter of the Year honors. His rookie line: .312/.352/.570, 44 2B, 42 HR, 109 RBI, 44 SB. This is the way to live up to your billing!

There was some drop off of Clemente's numbers in 2017 as pitchers adjusted, but he still raked. .269/.316/.506, 43 2B, 39 HR, 108 RBI, 31 SB.

Injuries have hampered Clemente in 2018, limiting him to just 29 games so far this season. He's hitting a paltry .252 with just 7 HR and 21 RBI. London has managed to stay in first place despite his injuries and hope he comes back strong (he's expected back in 2-4 weeks).

3) CHNG - RF Morton Henrikksen (RICE) - The big slugger from the Owls has been putting up huge power numbers in the minors since being drafted 3rd overall. The Kwaan selected him despite the fact he shared the same position as MVP Joe Belinda. His debut season in Springfield saw him put up a .297/.354/.528, 16 HR, 51 RBI line.

On the day before Opening Day 2017, Henrikksen was shipped to Atlanta as part of an 8 player deal featuring Mark Prior and Barry Zito. The Mighty Swede has excelled in the excellent Charleston system. His 2017 line was a robust .321/.380/.659, 26 HR, 72 RBI.

With two weeks to go in the 2018 campaign, Henrikksen shows no signs of slowing: .331/.390/.686, 27 HR, 73 RBI. The question with an Atlanta prospect is always "when will he get the call?" The Flyers' recent shopping of Joshua Brady may be an indication that they are ready to see what Henrikksen can do, but it's unlikely we see him until 2019.

4) CLE - RF Tex Austin (TEX) - The Dawgs were thrilled that the 2015 National Player of the Year fell to them at #4. After batting .377 with 23 HR and 84 RBI for the Longhorns, Austin looked to jumpstart a struggling Cleveland offense. His first year for Hawaii saw a fine .317/.398/.587, 25 HR, 71 RBI line. No slowing down for this young stud.

Austin jumped to the majors in 2017, putting up a rookie OPS of .916 with 30 HR and 93 RBI. In many years, that would get him RHOY honors, but he came in second to Al Murphy (40 HR, 121 RBI).

Cleveland still struggles, but don't blame Tex. His 2018 line has been great, with an OPS near 1.000 to go with 19 HR and 50 RBI over the first 64 games.

5) TAI - P Chris Fetter (MICH) - Taipei had taken hitters in their first two amateur drafts (Maple in '13 and Mule in '14), but with glaring weaknesses at pitcher throughout the organization, adding arms was the priority of the day. Chris Fetter would get the honor of being the first pitcher taken in 2015. His first season in Lander was pretty mediocre, going 4-5, 4.76 in 115 innings. Coaches were encouraged, however, by his 133 K's over that span.

2017 saw the K rate go down but the ERA drop. On a terrible Lander team he went 2-9, 3.81 with 98 K's.

The Tai Fong plugged Fetter into the rotation this year for lack of anything better to throw out there. He's done a pretty good job thus far, going 7-4, 4.00 with 74 K's in 83 IP to date. He's prone to the long ball, but he's put up 8 quality starts in 13 tries and has helped Taipei stay in first place so far.

6) IRE - SS Jackie Pointer (FLA) - The 2014 All-American was usurped by Clemente in 2015, but still showed strongly enough to be a Top 10 pick. His 2016 debut was decent, posting a .792 OPS with 17 HR and 52 RBI. He was prone to losing concentration in the field, booting 8 balls for a .976 fielding %.

Pointer showed a little improvement in 2017, but as much as the scouts would have liked to see. A .834 OPS with 16 HR and 54 RBI was about the same as the season before, though his defense improved.

Pointer got a cup of coffee in September in both '16 and '17, hitting 6 HR and 19 RBI in about 150 combined AB's. 2018 has seen an improved eye at the plate, as he has posted a .317/.361/.514 line with 11 HR and 42 RBI so far. Overall, you'd have to label Pointer a disappointment, if only for his draft position. If you got these numbers from a 2nd rounder, you'd probably be satisfied, but at this point he's not much more than a useful bench player.

7) SAV - P Bill Bartleman (UVA) - The Sabers rolled the dice on this hard-throwing lefty despite the fact that he only has two pitches. He was nearly unhittable in his first minor league season, holding opponents to a .203 average (.190 vs.L) and posting a 3.47 ERA while striking out 133 in 114 IP. Pretty mean.

That confidence building season translated big time in 2017 where Bartleman dominated. His 10-1, 1.81 line dominated AAA and he won the Pitching Prospect of the Year Award. Bartleman held opponents to a .189 average and allowed just 4 HR in 114 IP. A brief 14 inning call up in September might have rattled his confidence a bit, as he gave up 19 hits and 7 walks.

Bartleman has been good this year, but not nearly as dominating as a year ago. In 14 starts he has gone 6-3, 3.58 and his OpAvg has risen to .249. He is still getting a great K rate. The question for the Saber organization is whether his future is as a starter or, perhaps, a shut down closer.

8) KYO - P Jordan Auerbach (IOWA) - Kyoto was thrilled that Auerbach fell to their spot at #8, though they knew they had a project on their hands. Scouts marvelled at his arm strength as he regularly hit the high 90's during workouts, but his pitches were raw and unrefined. His first season was good but unremarkable: 5-6, 3.51, 111 K's in 125 IP.

After a very good Rookie League, the Bushido front office decided to put Auerbach's feet to the fire and inserted him into the major league lineup. The former Hawkeye responded, going 13-9, 2.86 in his rookie season, holding opponents to a .224 average. He came in second in RPOY voting.

Though inconsistent at times, Auerbach continues to pitch well in Kyoto. His second season has seen him go 7-4, 2.99 in his first 13 starts. As the pitches improve, Auerbach will continue to be a very productive (and cheap) option in the rotation. Overall, a steal at #8.

9) PHI - P Dante Hicks (UCI) - Philly selected the junior southpaw All-American from UC Irvine with the #9 pick. Hicks landed in a good spot, pitching for the always formidable Washington D.C. squad. The winning tradition rubbed off as he went 10-5, 3.44 with 126 K's and only 17 BB's in 2016.

2017 was a slight drop off for Hicks. He matched his 10-5 record, but his ERA (3.76) and walks (25) increased. He still struck out a batter per inning and lead his team with 11 quality starts.

Hicks started the 2018 season in the Fever rotation, but was sent back to AAA on May 11th after going 2-2, 7.40 with 9 HR allowed in 46 IP. Since returning to D.C., he has regained his confidence, posting a 5-0, 3.22 line. While his FB and SI are rated as "plus" pitches, his SL is just average and needs improving.

10) BED - P Connor Graham (MIOH) - Graham came out of college with three good pitches and a decent arm. His first year in Detroit was decent (6-9, 4.18, 12 QS) but nothing to jump up and down about.

Lack of run support seemed to weigh Graham down in 2017. Despite getting better than a K/IP, he won just 3 games (vs. 10 losses) and allowed 165 baserunners in 119 IP. A brief September call up didn't help the confidence, as he allowed 34 baserunners in 20 IP and lost 2 games in his 14 appearances out of the pen.

Unfortunately, Graham hasn't showed much improvement. His ERA is hovering dangerously close to 5.00 in Detroit and his OpAvg is up to .283. The 25 year old lefty has good stuff, but at what point does it all come together for him?

11) HAL - SS Kiko Brezovan (MINN) - After a very promising debut season, Brezovan was fast-tracked to the majors. He posted a .978 OPS with 19 HR and 67 RBI for Vancouver in 2016, and that was all the time he has spent in the minors.

In 2017, Brezovan made the Sailor roster as a bench player out of Spring Training. He appeared in 48 games as a backup SS and 2B, OPSing 1.005 with 12 HR and 36 RBI in just 185 AB's.

Brezovan now bats cleanup and 5th for the Sailors. He leads the team in AB's and has put up an .854 OPS with 10 HR, 32 RBI and 21 doubles to date.

12) SJ - P Charlie Bosio (TEN) - Bosio might have been a stretch as a first round pick. The tall left-hander has a plus FB and CU, but no third pitch. His fastball tops out around 91. In his first season with Caracas he gave up 18 HR in 108 IP and posted a 4.99 ERA.

It got worse in 2017, as he allowed a .508 OpSlg and a 5.56 ERA. 171 baserunners in 115 IP is really bad.

Though the ERA has improved some (4.52) this season, Bosio still allows baserunners to reach at an alarming rate. With just two pitches, management might consider a move to the bullpen, but you can't have a setup man or closer post a 1.50 WHIP. So far, this is the first clear bust of the first round.

13) OSKA - 3B Wally Scott (SMSU) - The Ronin picked up Scott late in the first round, probably happy to have an All-American third baseman fall in their laps. Scott followed up his 19 HR, 73 RBI season at Southern Miss with a 14 HR, 52 RBI stint in Ft. Wayne.

2017 was a big year for Scott. He posted a 1.000 OPS with 22 dingers and 37 doubles. He was traded at the deadline to Savannah in exchange for reliever Brock Landers. The Sabers called on him right away, and in 58 games, Scott hit .355 with 8 HR and 38 RBI.

So far this year, Scott has been limited to bench duty for the Sabers. He has managed just 50 AB's, but has hit .320 with 5 HR and a .700 SLG. He's unlikely to get any regular playing time as long as Miguel Cabrera is on the roster.

14) SCOT - P Jim Autry (SMSU) - Autry went 10-2, 2.99 in his junior year at Southern Miss, making the All-American team. Like Charlie Bosio, he was a starter with just two pitches and an average-at-best arm. His first summer in Stockholm resulted in a 4.59 ERA and an alarming 165 baserunners in 104 IP.

Season two was an improvement. He lowered his ERA to 3.95 and his WHIP to 1.35. During the 2018 Winter Meetings, Autry was shipped to Chiang-Mai in an 8 player deal.

Autry has served as a middle reliever for the Kwaan in 2018. In 22 IP, he has gone 2-3, 4.03 and has allowed just one HR. This seems to be a better role for Autry.

15) PAR - 1B Angel Peltz (AUB) - Peltz put up big power numbers at Auburn and has done nothing but obliterate minor league pitching in his short career. His debut season in Quebec saw him bat .335 with a .975 OPS, launching 21 HR and 80 RBI.

It got scarier in 2017. How about this line: .370/.410/.707, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 44 2B. Holy christ! The only reason he didn't win the Hitting Prospect of the Year award was because teammate Stu Watwood knocked in 102. Rude.

Peltz has showed no sign of slowing down with the bat, though the power is down a bit this season. He has hit .377 so far with 15 HR and 52 RBI. The kid is built for Paris' high-powered offense, and few have any doubt he could hit 25+ HR a year for the Pimps. Great pickup at the end of Round 1.

16) P Dante Yeohe (GT) - Same pitcher, different name. Like Bosio/Autry, he has just the two pitches. What Yeohe has benefited from so far is a superior coaching staff in Charleston. His first season went very well as Yeohe posted a 2.94 ERA and K'd 137 in 118 IP.

Yeohe's ERA rose to 3.22 in 2017, but he K'd 141 in 112 IP.

Atlanta move Yeohe out of the rotation at Charleston this year and he hasn't responded well. He has appeared in 36 games (56 IP) and has a 4.34 ERA. His K/9 is almost down to 1:1. Is he just made to be a starter? The bullpen is a better role for him, but his confidence seems to have taken a hit.

And now for the picks that got away...

Round 2

LON - CF Warren McFadden - Career: .316, 121 2B, 41 3B, 59 HR, 186 RBI
CLE - 2B James Ewing (now with ATL) - Career: .314, 82 2B, 24 3B, 56 HR, 166 RBI

Round 5

CLE - 1B Al Siever - Career: .281, 24 HR, 78 RBI in 654 AB's