Sunday, July 27, 2008

First opinions - 2018 SLB Draft first round

Here's an early look at an analysis of the 2018 SLB Draft first round.
Darin covered the first eight picks, I covered the last eight.

Enjoy!

1. TAI – 2B Mook Jockster (Ole Miss) – This is both a great and difficult year to have the #1 overall pick. On the one hand, there is tremendous depth, especially in hitting. On the other, there is no de facto "best" player. You'll get a great player, but you're afraid you'll let a better one slip away. Such was the fate of Dylan Goforth. His pick this year was the switch-hitting second baseman Mook Jockster. It's an interesting pick; it's debatable that Jockster is the best available player (he's probably not even the best at his own school), and he plays a position that isn't one of need in Taipei's system. In fact, the Tai Fong don't have a single 3B in their system, making this pick even more curious, especially considering the depth at that position in this draft. Jockster had a tremendous year, batting .363 and posting a nearly 1:1 BB:K ratio. Jockster will be a very good player (this isn't Damion Douglas #1 overall here) but was he the right pick for the team?

2. PHI – 3B Jason Wilber (Ole Miss) – Back to back Rebels taken to kick off the draft. Wilber is considered by many as the best of a very deep class of third baseman. The NCAA Player of the Year broke the collegiate record for HR in a season and could step right into a starting role next season with Philly. Evan Longoria is currently the only 3B in the Fever system, and he is at the end of his current contract. The 24 year old Wilber has the tools to step right in at the major league level and contribute, so this is a very smart pick.

3. ATL – 3B Josh Rodriguez (Rice) – The Flyers jumped up in the draft lottery this year and swiped "J-Rod", a former All American from the Rice Owls. Though scouts aren't as impressed with his skill set as some of the other third basemen in the draft, the on-field results are tough to argue with. Rodriguez capped his four-year career by batting .401/.459/.738, striking out just 36 times in 344 AB's. J-Rod finished his college play with a career 1.048 OPS, 165 doubles, 96 HR and 314 RBI.

4. OSKA – 3B Ben Parker (Florida) – This was possibly the most predictable pick in the draft. Chest Rockwell leaving Osaka for Atlanta left a void that needed to be filled, and GM Tom Hey found his man. Parker is a left-handed, fly ball hitting third baseman with gold glove defense (something Rockwell did NOT have). Parker perhaps needs a little more refining than some of the other third base draftees, but Hey isn't known for his patience with prospects, and I expect to see this former Gator in the lineup by year's end. What's not to like about a kid who can hit 35 HR and Slug .741? Good pick.

5. KYO – 3B Shuhei Iwata (Cal St. Fullerton) – The run on third basemen continues. Kyoto is another team with a need at the position, and their scouts loved the Japan native on Cal St. Fullerton. Unlike some of the other hot corner players in the draft, Iwata is more or less a two-tool player. His defense is not good, and he has catcher's speed. He also had a subpar year in college (compared to other draftees), hitting just .272 with 23 HR and 63 RBI. Is Kyoto GM Darin Keesing concerned? "Not at all. We feel he has the same skill set as Albert Pujols, and all that guy has done is hit 455 HR." This will be an interesting prospect to keep an eye on, as we've seen that collegiate play doesn't always equate with pro ball; just look at Diego Clemente's college numbers if you want Exhibit A.

6. BAL – C Calver Alkoa (Arizona) – The incredible depth at third base in this year's draft is offset by an extremely thin crop of catchers. While Baltimore certainly can use a catching prospect, this pick brings up the common debate over first round picks: do you draft for need or do you take the best available player regardless of position? Alkoa is a decent looking prospect, a lefty hitter who had a good power year for the Wildcats, but there are definitely better hitters available at this pick. GM Jose Gutierrez is known for not always making the obvious choice, but recently he has come out on top with his early draft picks. Personally, I think he took the second best catcher in the draft, but history will decide who's right.

7. BED – SS Sheyne Baniaga (Cal St. Fullerton) – Baniaga is the second Titan taken in the first 7 picks. A switch-hitting short stop with elite power and gold glove defensive abilities come around extremely rarely and Bedford is a team starving for offense. Baniaga hit just 16 HR (and 59 in his career), but Crunch scouts think he'll adapt well to the wooden bat. The team has a pair of young SS's on the major league roster, so they have some time to groom Baniaga before thrusting him into the limelight.

8. CLE – 1B Matthew Hamman (Wichita St.) – The Dawgs looked to add another piece to their home-grown offense, choosing to upgrade at first base. Hamman is a switch-hitter with a good eye at the plate and developing power. He led his team with 28 HR while batting .350. He picked the right time to peak, having hit just 48 HR in his previous 3 years. Cleveland has done an impressive job drafting hitters, and first base was an obvious area to upgrade, as Al Allen and Al Siever just haven't risen above bench player status.

- By Darin Keesing

9. IRE – 3B Kainalu Chmolak (LSU)
You know Ireland was thinking catcher here after drafting one seemingly every year, but Baltimore took Alokoa with the sixth pick. Chmolak is no booby prize, however. He’s a switch hitter with just ridiculous power, but scouts say he has a hole in his swing that SLB pitchers can exploit. He’s a career .320 hitter in college, though, so the truth may be that the juice in his bat hides any deficiencies. Ireland isn’t too enamored with current third baseman Barry Rosen, so Chmolak might get the call sooner rather than later.

10. BAL – 2B Luke Daughetry (BAY)
With their second pick of the first round, Baltimore settled on Daughetry. He compares well to Jockster, who went first overall. Like Taipei’s new second sacker, Daughetry is a switch hitter with power to spare – even more so in fact – but he isn’t quite the contact hitter that Jockster is. The Panthers currently have Frank Vanderwall and his .380 average sitting at second base, so they can afford to groom Daughetry for the future.

11. CHNG – CF Dreshon Murray (WICH)
It’s rare to find a centerfielder with the kind of power that Murray displays. In fact, there’s not one in the entire SLB that can match Murray punch-for-punch. The only problem that scouts see with Murray is that he spent so much time in the weight room at Wichita State that he lost some flexibility and as a result, his swing doesn’t generate the same amount of lift that most power hitters do. Right now, the Kwaan have their outfield set, but if Trevor Bayne continues his struggles, Murray may end up in the big leagues soon.

12. SAV – SP Holden Whitley (MIA)
In an offense laden draft, it took until the twelfth pick to see a pitcher come off the board. Whitley has all kinds of measurables, he throws hard (with room for improvement), he has good control, good endurance and he’s great at holding runners. He’s got projectable fastball that’s already good enough for the SLB, but his secondary pitches are lacking. His slider looks like it could be a big league pitch one day, but his curveball looks like it will never be anything more than a last resort. Whitley has a career 21-21 record with a 4.46 ERA, but he really put things together his senior year, going 7-2 and lowering his ERA to 3.27.

13. LON – 2B Augustine Ortiz (WICH)
Like it was for the hot corner, this draft was thick in second baseman. The sweet-swinging lefty makes tons of contact (A career .360 hitter) and uses his speed and quick bat to pound balls into the gaps for extra bases (178 career doubles). The first two second basemen drafted were more of the thick-necked variety, but Ortiz is no slouch, either. London is currently enjoying a rebirth of sorts from T.J. Mackey, so don’t expect to see Ortiz in the bigs for a while.

14. SJ - 2B Jonathan Stephens (MIA)
Stephens is the fourth second baseman taken in the first round, and he’s more like Ortiz than Jockster or Daughetry. His bat will play just a step below Ortiz’, but Stephens is the fastest of the second basemen drafted in the first round. Stephens hit .335 last year, but continued to struggle versus lefthanded pitching, batting just .242 against them, lower than his .266 career mark. The Senadores are currently just three games behind Atlanta, but with Baltimore hot on their tails, it might be hard for Gluvna to leave Stephens down for too long.

15. HAL - (R) Jerry Bennett (ARZ)
Guess what, another second baseman. Again, Bennett has more of a prototypical second baseman’s bat - if not a shortstop’s, truthfully. He has a quick bat and great speed, but he’s never going to be a home run hitter. Scouts say that his swing is tailor made to dominate lefties. It’s just never happened. Bennett hit just .269 against them last year and is just a .277 hitter against them in his career. Things like that tend to get overlooked when you smash righthanded pitching the way he has, you just have to wonder how his those skills and numbers will translate against more advanced pitching. Halifax has Jed Lowrie in the last year of his contract currently playing second base, so we may see Bennett up in the bigs by 2019.

16. PAR - 2B Bucky Covington (ND)
Of course the draft ends with another second baseman. This sweet swinging lefty is also a sweet singing lefty… he almost turned down his scholarship offer to Notre Dame to pursue a music career. In the end the Golden Domers won out, and Covington responded by hitting .323 in 314 career games. He’s not overly powerful or overly fast, but he projects to potentially add speed and strength which could push him into the realm of the elite second basemen.

- By Dylan Goforth

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