Amateur Draft Analysis - 2016

Moving on to 2016....


2016 - After the 2015 draft, the SLB front office voted to restrict eligibility to seniors only. As a result, the 2016 class was predictably weak. Most of the impact juniors were drafted the year before, leaving the senior class pretty thin (The All-American Team had just three seniors, only one of whom was drafted). As a result, 2016 was arguably one of (if not the) weakest drafts in league history. Did anyone find a diamond in the rough?


1) CLE - SS Damion Douglas (KENT) - Even considering the weak draft class, this pick had most GM's scratching their heads. Douglas had an extremely average skill set, and didn't even project as a major league bench player to many scouts. He did nothing to create any buzz during his first minor league year, batting .287 with 8 HR and 27 RBI. Despite the weak showing, he got called up to the majors, accumulating 334 AB's. His final line was .243/.285/.455, 16 HR, 43 RBI.

That was the extent of Douglas' minor league stay. He has been on the Cleveland bench this year, going just .220 with 3 HR in 50 AB's. Think the Dawgs regret this one?

2) TAI - P Roy Higuera (CSF) - Taipei had the misfortune of having a high pick in a bad draft. They decided to take a shot at Cal State Fullerton's Roy Higuera, a hard throwing starter with just a fastball and a change up. Last year's draft showed mixed results with two-pitch starters, but Higuera had a much stronger arm than any of those draftees. The gamble looked like a bad one after 2017's AAA season ended, as Higuera went 4-2, 6.58 with a 1.63 WHIP.

After such pitiful pitching, the natural thing to do was stick him in your big league rotation, right? Well someone must have seen something in the kid, as he has sparkled as a major league rookie. In 13 starts, he has 10 QS, going 5-6, 2.86 and a WHIP just over 1.00. The question is, which Higuera is the real one? Did the kid suddenly "get it", or is he doomed to regress next season?

3) IRE - P Al Snodgrass (KENT) - Another two-pitch starter. Seems to be a trend, eh? Snodgrass wasn't as strong as Higuera, and featured a curve rather than a change up. Unfortunately for Ireland, his numbers have been the reverse of Higuera's as well. Snodgrass excelled in 2017, posting a 2.66 ERA in Melbourne allowing just 7 HR in 118 IP. He came up to Ireland in September, but threw just 2 2/3 scoreless innings.

Snodgrass was inserted into the major league rotation in 2018, but it was too soon. The kid had a 2.00 WHIP and a 10.05 ERA in 3 starts. On April 20th, he was sent back to the Beer Bellies. Since his return to AAA, he has gone 5-4, 3.17. Best to give him more inning in the minors and ease him back to the majors.

4) SJ - RF Charlie Proly (MICH) - Hindsight being 20/20, Proly should have been the #1 overall pick. Cleveland had just drafted Tex Austin the year before, but Proly was the cream of the offensive crop. His first year in Caracas saw a .330 average with 18 HR and 67 RBI.

After adding about 15 pounds of muscle in the off season, Proly returned to Caracas on a mission. The 25 year old has pounded 30 HR this year without losing his great average. So what's his future with San Juan? The Senadores already have three All-Star caliber outfielders, all under 30 years old. Is it time a for a position change, or can you work him as the key man in a big trade?

5) BED - P Alex Pocoroba (AUB) - Pocoroba was the first (and only) All-American drafted in 2016. He was dominant in Auburn's bullpen, posting a 1.72 ERA while saving 10 games. His fastball and slider were both plus pitches and he had above average arm strength. For some reason, he only pitched 4 2/3 innings for AAA Detroit in 2017, posting a 15.43 ERA. The sample size was far too small to make any judgments on.

Pocoroba was traded to Chiang Mai in April of 2018 as part of a 4 player swap. He has seen more regular work in Springfield's pen, with 37 IP. His ERA has been a decent 4.34, but his overall performance has to vastly improve before he sees any significant playing time in a major league bullpen.

6) HAL - P Randall Graves (NWU) - What's this? A starter with more than two pitches? Perish the thought! Graves Featured a 93 mph fastball along with a slider and curve at Northwestern. In his first season with Vancouver, he went 9-5, 3.07. More impressive, his WHIP was under 1.00.

Graves has spent all of 2018 in AAA. He has pitched 13 QS in 17 games started with a 3.59 ERA. It's tough to imagine that he's too far away from the major league rotation; perhaps not this year, but he'll be strongly considered for 2019.

7) BAL - RF Mike Wells (OSU) - Baltimore had far less pressure on them in 2016, picking mid-round in a draft devoid of sure stars. Gutierrez picked up a useful OF in left-handed batting Mike Wells. With Guerrero retiring soon (or so we keep assuming), the team has time to groom his replacement. His 2017 season was solid: an .873 OPS and 50 XBH.

Wells has really turned it up a notch or two this year in Miami. His OPS is up to 1.040 and he leads his team with 67 RBI. Though his power isn't likely to ever match Vladdy's, this former Buckeye looks like a cheap 20 HR bat in the near future.

8) PAR - Skipped - You know the draft is bad when a GM thinks no one in it is better than a single person on his current roster. Moving on....

9) OSKA - C Elmer Kennedy (LSU) - The Ronin always need pitching, but this clearly wasn't the draft to improve that side of the ball. With the impending free agency of Tony Montana, Osaka was smart to invest a pick into a potential replacement. Kennedy had decent power and above average defense, and was a rare switch-hitting catcher. His 2017 line in Ft. Wayne finished at .288 with 17 HR and 49 RBI.

Montana did end up walking after 2017, thrusting Kennedy into the starting position behind the dish for the Ronin. He has responded well offensively, hitting 14 HR and driving in 38 to date. His defense has been shaky; 9 errors in 68 games behind the dish is pretty rough. It would be easy to criticize his handling of the pitching staff, but I don't think Ivan Rodriguez could get much out of this sorry group.

10) SCOT - LF Bill Ranford (RICE) - Ranford was a potential 5-tool outfielder out of Rice. Scouts loved his blend of eye, power and speed to go with good defense. But before he could take a minor league at-bat for Stockholm, he was traded to Halifax as part of the Kenji Johjima deal. He was a bench player in Vancouver, getting just 102 AB's.

Injury issues in Halifax have forced Ranford into some playing time, and he has done better than expected. .316/.356/.553 with 6 HR in 152 AB's. Can't ask for much more from a kid his age.

11) PHI - LF Truck Chakales (ARZ) - Truck is a big thumper out of Arizona who has put up good power numbers for the Senators over the past 2 seasons. He slugged .629 with 23 big flys in 2017, leading his team in both categories.

His numbers in 2018 have been nearly identical. The 23 year old might have to wait a while before getting his shot in the bigs, however, as he's staring up at the outfield of Hunter/Bruce/Hunting in Phily.

12) P Kyle Carr (MINN) - Slim pickings already, so Kyoto takes Golden Gopher closer Kyle Carr. Carr had a good fastball and curve, but nothing that topped about 90 mph. He had a pretty good debut season, posting a 3.49 ERA and 9 saves as Flint's closer.

It's been rougher sailing for Carr in 2018. His ERA has been hovering in the mid-5's with a high WHIP. He as just traded to Ireland as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal.

13) ATL - SS Jimmy Hess (OSU) - Atlanta turned to Ohio State for a speedy short stop. Hess has great speed and a good eye, but not much defense. Stuck behind Orlie King on the depth chart, he went hitless in just 7 AB's for Charleston in 2017 .

Hess slotted over to 2B this year and has fared very poorly. His OPS is a paltry .642 and he leads his team with 72 K's (in 356 AB's). It seems unlikely that he sees time on the Flyers roster any time soon (if ever).

14) LON - P Ben Jenzen (MICH) - Jenzen came out of Michigan with three pitches, one of which was a very hittable curveball. He hasn't improved it much. He went 0-6, 5.68 in 2017, walking more (22) than he struck out (20). Ouch.

He remains winless as a pro, now 0-6 in 2018. He has pitched exclusively out of the pen, improving his ERA to 4.15 and his BB/K ratio to 14/44. Don't look too hard at the record, as Queens is a terrible, terrible team. At any rate, this guy is not ready for prime time.

15) SAV - 3B Lew Little (AUB) - Little has about the same skill set as Damion Douglas, he just went at a far more appropriate place in the draft. He played to his skills, OPSing about .770 and hitting 11 HR for Tampa in 2017.

It's a lot worse this year. His OPS is down to .661 (to go with a .249 average) and he has just 5 HR. The kid doesn't look to be cut out for pro ball. Tough break.

16) P Tyler Oakes (MINN) - Oakes was an interesting prospect out of the Big 10. His fastball topped out in the high 80's, but he had a plus curveball with pinpoint control. His first summer in Queens was a disaster, allowing 34 baserunners in just 13 innings (.409 OpAvg).

But Oakes didn't get discouraged and entered 2018 with a bright outlook. After posting a 1.79 ERA in 7 IP at Queens, Tyler got the call up to the bigs. He is now a fixture in the first place London's pen, and he has shined. He is 2-1 with a dazzling 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings, allowing just 9 baserunners and fanning 11. Coupled with Craig Hansen, he's part of the most intimidating duo in any SLB bullpen.