NORTH DIVISION
It's already a run away for SLB's best team, Halifax. The good news for Philly is that they're right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race. The bad news for Bedford and Cleveland is that they're about 1000 games out of first place and have no chance to do anything....unless the race for 3rd does something for you. So yeah, this thing is pretty much done.
Halifax has a ridiculous 3.40 team ERA, which is on pace to break the league record. There are three legit Cy Young contenders in the rotation, with Justin Verlander (11-1, 1.52) the favorite to win. The bullpen is bad outside of Gudex, but that hasn't seemed to be a problem so far. The offense is entirely mediocre, but they don't need to do much to win on most days. Philly has a better offense and a worse pitching staff, but stay competitive and are not far behind in the WC race. Evan Longoria is having a career year, while Jay Bruce continues to dominate. Will Hunting was out for a month, hampering the lineup. Bedford is bad on nearly every level, yet remain out of the basement. They're last in team average and runs and have the second worst team ERA. Cleveland has THE worst team ERA, which has been enough to keep them in last place. Some of the hitting has been great as a young nucleus (Austin, Hamman, Hillenbrand) continues to produce in the middle of the order. The pitching is off the charts bad, however, as the youth lag behind the hitters in adapting to the major league game.
SOUTH DIVISION
Not quite as big a blow out as the North, but Atlanta has a comfortable double digit lead in the division. The rest of the South is bunched up, all fighting for the Wild Card (or staying out of last, which aren't too far apart at this point). The offense is great, as Darren Lemming flirts with another Triple Crown and James Ewing puts up some crazy power numbers. The pitching is really hit or miss, with Homer Bailey (12-1, 1.97) a strong contender for Cy Young on the plus side, and Tucker and Krieger (both with ERA's north of 6.00) on the negative. The Flyers have a great bullpen - a rarity in this league. Just 6 games separate the WC leader from last place. Savannah had a great June and have taken the lead, riding the hot hitting of Cabrera/Leahy and the dominant starting rotation, headlined by Humber and Willis. Baltimore continues to build on their farm system, with hitters like Atwood and Vanderwal taking up the reins from Pujols, McPherson and Guerrero. Rookie Mike Wells has been a big surprise offensively. Putnam, Cepeda and DeVries have been good but inconsistent, and the bullpen is pretty spotty. San Juan is still in the hunt, but has suffered from low morale after team leader Floyd Larkin went down early in the year. Swirling rumors about Dennis Dennis Jr.'s future with the team have also served to destabilize a normally dominant lineup. The rotation is solid, with rookie Anthony Rodriguez putting up pretty good numbers.
EURO DIVISION
After London lead for most of the year, Scotland has "lucked" their way into first place at the break. The Rebels have scored just 3 more runs than they have allowed, but have managed to go 10 over .500 to this point. Will their record skew back to the numbers? The team lacks any one player that makes you say "Wow", though Matisse and King Felix have been good. London continues to hit the crap out of the ball, with all 8 regular hitters in double digits in HR and 6 slugging over .500. Free agent pickup Michael Pelfrey is putting up a career year (10-1, 3.07) while Bray and Gaudin continue to pitch well. Paris has disappointed thus far, though injuries to Jerome Williams and Ryne Robinson have taken a pair of All-Star players out of action. The team hits home runs, but outside of MVP candidate Choi, none seem to drive in many runs outside of the long ball. Dennis Tankersly is getting shelled in Paris, and the bullpen is an eyesore. Ireland was looking better there for awhile, but they've recently slumped back to 11 under .500. The starting rotation is really good, but the bullpen is atrocious and there isn't enough thump in the lineup.
FAR EAST DIVISION
For the 87th straight season, this division sucks. Taipei and Osaka are tied for first with .500 records, and a week ago all four teams were under the break even point. Despite all the talent in the division, every team has glaring issues. Osaka's offense is great (shocked?), but it's rookie Ben Parker leading the way. The Ronin have three rookies putting up great numbers, including Rule 5 pick Truck Chakeles. Parker, just one year out college, could be the first player to win ROY and MVP in the same season. While Osaka's pitching is still pretty bad, they have seen positive results from free agent signings Sabathia and Mahara. Taipei is lead by 35 year old Jose Reyes (WUT?) who somehow leads the team in HR and SLG. This is a pretty light hitting team overall, though there are some big bats waiting in AAA. Higuera and Fetter continue to impress, while FA addition Ubardo has lived up to his contract. Mid-season acquisition Scott Kazmir has done everything but win since coming from Bedford. Kyoto has been victim to horrible luck....again. They are +9 in run differential but sit at 9 games under .500. The Bushido seem to excel at winning in blowouts, but their piss poor pen has lost them a league leading 20 one-run games. Rookie Stan Ford leads the league with 30 HR, but he's not in the top 15 in RBI. Drew Stubbs has filled in very well for the injured Cray Boggs, making for an overcrowded OF. Outside of Jake Peavy, the rotation has been very good, but oh that bullpen. Chiang Mai has a good offense but abysmal pitching. Their best starter (Degerman) is hurt, while most of the pen are giving up runs in bunches.
MIDSEASON AWARDS
MVP: Darren Lemming
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
RHOY: Ben Parker
RPOY: Rene Delmas
MIDSEASON PREDICTIONS
NORTH: Halifax
SOUTH: Atlanta
EURO: London
FAR EAST: Osaka
WILDCARDS: Savannah, Scotland
WORLD SERIES: Atlanta over London
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Darin's Far East preview
What happened last year: Major Upgrade: a team with a winning record won the division. That said, the division was completely lame; Taipei outplayed their numbers and everyone else underperformed terribly. Lot's of offense, little pitching. Taipei got some surprising starting pitching (including Roy Higuera and RPOY Chris Fetter) to go with their young hitting. The Tai Fong were just happy to make the playoffs for the first time ever, gracefully bowing out to the far superior Paris team in the WLDS. Kyoto had the best pitching in the division, especially after landing lefty ace CC Sabathia from Ireland in July. It wasn't enough, as the Bushido blew their chance in a weak division. Chiang Mai went trade happy in July, adding Ben Sheets, Daniel Pursel and Chest Rockwell; the team went into an immediate tailspin and finished 9 back. Osaka....woof. Offense was great (Brown and Fielder were crazy good) but the pitching was almost historically bad. The "allow 8 runs but score 10" gameplan proved faulty, and the Ronin finished in dead last.
What happened in the offseason: Taipei took their first division title seriously, adding free agents El Ron Ubardo to the rotation and retaining Maple and Posedel for reasonable contracts. Kyoto lost Gudex and Sabathia to free agency and got outbid on pretty much every pitcher they negotiated with. GM Darin Keesing had to go the trade route, trading 3B prospect Shuhei Iwata to Taipei for a trio of arms, and sending Ed See to Paris for Les Beltre and Youliesky Gourriel. Chiang Mai kept Cap Jackson, and then added some minor parts like Adam Wainwright and Carl Crawford. Osaka had a ton of money to spend, and after failing to land Darren Lemming, spread the cash around to free agents like CC Sabathia, Tosekawa Mahara and their RFA's (Brown/Peppers).
What will happen this year: The top teams didn't get better, so expect another division winner with 80-86 wins. Is Taipei for real, or will they regress to rebuilding status? If the starting pitching holds up, the Tai Fong should be right in the thick of things. Kyoto always looks good on paper, but will they ever live up to their potential? Rookie Stan Ford steps in to the clean up spot in the order, giving the team 4 or 5 legit 30 HR guys. The young bullpen could be their undoing. Chiang Mai has arguably the best offense top to bottom, but the pitching took a hit. It's Krueger, Degerman, then three days of praying. Osaka will put up runs as always, but will the big ticket free agent pitchers get the team back on top? Sabathia and Mahara are a good start, but when your 3-5 are Ojeda, Lambert and Gibson, you're pretty well effed.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Jordan Auerbach (KYO), 2. C.C. Sabathia (OSKA), 3. Jake Peavy (KYO), 4. Chris Fetter (TAI), 5. Eddie Krueger (CHNG)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. LF Rueben Brown (OSKA), 2. 1B Dave Peppers (OSKA), 3. LF Antonio Mule (KYO), 4. RF Joe Belinda (CHNG), 5. CF Tom Maple (TAI)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. RF Stan Ford (KYO), 2. 3B Ben Parker (OSKA) 3. 3B Shuhei Iwata (TAI), 4. P Derrek Ballinger (TAI), 5. CF Dreshon Murray (CHNG)
Predicted Order of Finish: 1. Kyoto, 2. Taipei, 3. Chiang Mai, 4. Osaka
What happened in the offseason: Taipei took their first division title seriously, adding free agents El Ron Ubardo to the rotation and retaining Maple and Posedel for reasonable contracts. Kyoto lost Gudex and Sabathia to free agency and got outbid on pretty much every pitcher they negotiated with. GM Darin Keesing had to go the trade route, trading 3B prospect Shuhei Iwata to Taipei for a trio of arms, and sending Ed See to Paris for Les Beltre and Youliesky Gourriel. Chiang Mai kept Cap Jackson, and then added some minor parts like Adam Wainwright and Carl Crawford. Osaka had a ton of money to spend, and after failing to land Darren Lemming, spread the cash around to free agents like CC Sabathia, Tosekawa Mahara and their RFA's (Brown/Peppers).
What will happen this year: The top teams didn't get better, so expect another division winner with 80-86 wins. Is Taipei for real, or will they regress to rebuilding status? If the starting pitching holds up, the Tai Fong should be right in the thick of things. Kyoto always looks good on paper, but will they ever live up to their potential? Rookie Stan Ford steps in to the clean up spot in the order, giving the team 4 or 5 legit 30 HR guys. The young bullpen could be their undoing. Chiang Mai has arguably the best offense top to bottom, but the pitching took a hit. It's Krueger, Degerman, then three days of praying. Osaka will put up runs as always, but will the big ticket free agent pitchers get the team back on top? Sabathia and Mahara are a good start, but when your 3-5 are Ojeda, Lambert and Gibson, you're pretty well effed.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Jordan Auerbach (KYO), 2. C.C. Sabathia (OSKA), 3. Jake Peavy (KYO), 4. Chris Fetter (TAI), 5. Eddie Krueger (CHNG)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. LF Rueben Brown (OSKA), 2. 1B Dave Peppers (OSKA), 3. LF Antonio Mule (KYO), 4. RF Joe Belinda (CHNG), 5. CF Tom Maple (TAI)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. RF Stan Ford (KYO), 2. 3B Ben Parker (OSKA) 3. 3B Shuhei Iwata (TAI), 4. P Derrek Ballinger (TAI), 5. CF Dreshon Murray (CHNG)
Predicted Order of Finish: 1. Kyoto, 2. Taipei, 3. Chiang Mai, 4. Osaka
Darin's Euro preview
What happened last year: London cruised to 102 wins and the Euro Division crown, but lost the WLCS to Paris. The Pimpernels won 90 games of their own, easily taking the WL Wildcard and pushing Halifax to seven games in the World Series. Scotland showed flashes of brilliance, but ended with a losing record, while Ireland looked completely overmatched all season. The London offense was amazing, with seven regulars hitting over .300. Delmon Young had a career year, smacking 46 HR and driving in 139 runs. Warren McFadden won the Euro MVP with his 91 XBH and 71 steals, and Russell, Clemente and McNulty were all outstanding. Solid starting pitching and a great bullpen gave London their best team in franchise history. For Paris, Choi and Dunn lead the way for an offense that scored less than a typical Pimpernel lineup. Williams and Pavano were good in the rotation, but the rest of the staff was pretty rough. Pretty good power in Scotland's lineup, but the team had trouble putting together big innings. Ireland was young and bad, again, with the super expensive pitchers unable to do enough.
What happened in the offseason: London lost their best two starters to free agency (Volstad to Ireland, Mahara to Osaka), but added Michael Pelfrey and Dante Inferno. Paris added Dennis Tankersly, Theodore Unger and Kendry Morales via free agency, and then acquired 3B Ed See from Kyoto (for Youliesky Gourriel and Les Beltre). Ireland beefed up their rotation, adding Kevin Thompson and Chris Volstad while retaining Bobby Brownlie. Scotland did little more than retain their restricted free agents
What will happen this year: London's offense returns fully intact and should put up huge numbers once again. The question for the Knights will be pitching, with a rotation full of #3 starters. The bullpen should be pretty good. Their main competition will once again be Paris, who has a ton of depth in pitching and the potential for a dynamic offense. Kendry Morales will hit 50 HR...you heard it here first. Scotland might be decent, but they just aren't built to compete with the big boys in the division. Wily Mo Pena is the cleanup hitter. Yikes. Ireland might be interesting if the young hitting ever develops. There are a ton of high draft picks here, but not enough have stepped up as offensive superstars. At least the starting pitching will be better.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Jerome Williams (PAR), 2. Josh Beckett (IRE), 3. Chris Volstad (IRE), 4. Bobbie Brownlie (IRE), 5. Horacio Ramirez (PAR)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. SS Diego Clemente (LON), 2. CF Warren McFadden (LON), 3. CF Ryne Robinson (PAR), 4. LF Jim Russell (LON), 5. RF Pablo Matisse (SCOT)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. SP Yoshi Sasaki (IRE), 2. C Jack Berry (IRE), 3. 2B Augustine Ortiz (LON), 4. RP Mike Hatcher (SCOT), 5. SS Alex Escavedo (SCOT)
Order of Finish: 1. London, 2. Paris, 3. Scotland, 4. Ireland
What happened in the offseason: London lost their best two starters to free agency (Volstad to Ireland, Mahara to Osaka), but added Michael Pelfrey and Dante Inferno. Paris added Dennis Tankersly, Theodore Unger and Kendry Morales via free agency, and then acquired 3B Ed See from Kyoto (for Youliesky Gourriel and Les Beltre). Ireland beefed up their rotation, adding Kevin Thompson and Chris Volstad while retaining Bobby Brownlie. Scotland did little more than retain their restricted free agents
What will happen this year: London's offense returns fully intact and should put up huge numbers once again. The question for the Knights will be pitching, with a rotation full of #3 starters. The bullpen should be pretty good. Their main competition will once again be Paris, who has a ton of depth in pitching and the potential for a dynamic offense. Kendry Morales will hit 50 HR...you heard it here first. Scotland might be decent, but they just aren't built to compete with the big boys in the division. Wily Mo Pena is the cleanup hitter. Yikes. Ireland might be interesting if the young hitting ever develops. There are a ton of high draft picks here, but not enough have stepped up as offensive superstars. At least the starting pitching will be better.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Jerome Williams (PAR), 2. Josh Beckett (IRE), 3. Chris Volstad (IRE), 4. Bobbie Brownlie (IRE), 5. Horacio Ramirez (PAR)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. SS Diego Clemente (LON), 2. CF Warren McFadden (LON), 3. CF Ryne Robinson (PAR), 4. LF Jim Russell (LON), 5. RF Pablo Matisse (SCOT)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. SP Yoshi Sasaki (IRE), 2. C Jack Berry (IRE), 3. 2B Augustine Ortiz (LON), 4. RP Mike Hatcher (SCOT), 5. SS Alex Escavedo (SCOT)
Order of Finish: 1. London, 2. Paris, 3. Scotland, 4. Ireland
Saturday, November 15, 2008
News & Notes - May 10, 2019
Apparently Lars has quit, so I'll do one of these things. Moral: Never trust a Canadian to do an American's job.
Around the League this week:
- The gap between the have's and have-not's widens this season, as just 6 teams (ATL, HAL, BAL, PHI, LON and TAI) have winning records. 6 of the 8 World League teams are under .500.
- SLB's "luckiest" team is at it again; Taipei, who had the greatest positive discrepancy vs. their pythagorean record in 2018, is 15 games over .500 despite a run differential of just +24. The least lucky team? Kyoto, who is 9 games under despite having a +4 run diff.
- A lot of Kyoto's failures have come in one-run games, where they are a league worst 3-10. "We feared this would happen," said pitching coach Kazuhiro Sasaki. "We have a very young bullpen, and they just haven't stepped up in the close games." Atlanta is the league's best team in close games, posting a 10-2 record in one-run affairs.
- Taipei's Scott Kazmir had a perfect game through 6 innings this week, but after throwing just 70 pitches, was pulled. Kazmir, who was just acquired by the Tai Fong in a deal with Bedford, refused to bad mouth his new team. "Coach said he thought the game was well in hand and wanted me to rest up for my next start," said a visibly irritated Kazmir. "I've got to do what I'm told." The bullpen finished out a combined no-hitter and Kazmir won his first decision of the season (after an 0-5 start).
- Matt Porter, a rookie starter who headed to Bedford in the Kazmir deal, pitched 7 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball in his Bedford debut.
- For the first time in forever, we have a heated race for RPOY. The early front-runners for the award include Rene Delmas (ATL, 4-1, 2.98), Anthony Rodriguez (SJ, 3-1, 3.38) and Chico Salazar (SAV, 1-2, 2.88).
- Front-runners for RHOY include Morton Henrikksen (ATL, .350, 9, 28), Mike Wells (BAL, .343, 4, 20), Stan Ford (KYO, .267, 9, 22), and Ben Parker (.282, 14, 31).
- SAV's Miguel Cabrera has extended his league record career hit total past 2700 and doubles total to 834. TAI's Jose Reyes is 45 runs shy of 1500.
- Jerome Williams is the third pitcher in league history to top 200 wins. The Paris hurler stands at 206, with CC Sabathia at 209 and Mark Prior at 229. Prior is just 9 K's short of joining the 3000 strikeout club; he would join Josh Beckett (3094) and Sabathia (3074).
Around the League this week:
- The gap between the have's and have-not's widens this season, as just 6 teams (ATL, HAL, BAL, PHI, LON and TAI) have winning records. 6 of the 8 World League teams are under .500.
- SLB's "luckiest" team is at it again; Taipei, who had the greatest positive discrepancy vs. their pythagorean record in 2018, is 15 games over .500 despite a run differential of just +24. The least lucky team? Kyoto, who is 9 games under despite having a +4 run diff.
- A lot of Kyoto's failures have come in one-run games, where they are a league worst 3-10. "We feared this would happen," said pitching coach Kazuhiro Sasaki. "We have a very young bullpen, and they just haven't stepped up in the close games." Atlanta is the league's best team in close games, posting a 10-2 record in one-run affairs.
- Taipei's Scott Kazmir had a perfect game through 6 innings this week, but after throwing just 70 pitches, was pulled. Kazmir, who was just acquired by the Tai Fong in a deal with Bedford, refused to bad mouth his new team. "Coach said he thought the game was well in hand and wanted me to rest up for my next start," said a visibly irritated Kazmir. "I've got to do what I'm told." The bullpen finished out a combined no-hitter and Kazmir won his first decision of the season (after an 0-5 start).
- Matt Porter, a rookie starter who headed to Bedford in the Kazmir deal, pitched 7 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball in his Bedford debut.
- For the first time in forever, we have a heated race for RPOY. The early front-runners for the award include Rene Delmas (ATL, 4-1, 2.98), Anthony Rodriguez (SJ, 3-1, 3.38) and Chico Salazar (SAV, 1-2, 2.88).
- Front-runners for RHOY include Morton Henrikksen (ATL, .350, 9, 28), Mike Wells (BAL, .343, 4, 20), Stan Ford (KYO, .267, 9, 22), and Ben Parker (.282, 14, 31).
- SAV's Miguel Cabrera has extended his league record career hit total past 2700 and doubles total to 834. TAI's Jose Reyes is 45 runs shy of 1500.
- Jerome Williams is the third pitcher in league history to top 200 wins. The Paris hurler stands at 206, with CC Sabathia at 209 and Mark Prior at 229. Prior is just 9 K's short of joining the 3000 strikeout club; he would join Josh Beckett (3094) and Sabathia (3074).
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Power Rankings - April 29th, 2019
1st - London Knights (15-11) – James McNulty .352 / 1.088 – 4th year player. McNulty is having a career year, leading the Knights in Home Runs. Once again, I am not sure why he bats so far down. Rank 1st.
2nd - Atlanta Flyers (18-7) – Justin Morneau .200 / .599 John Twain .286 / .962 - $200,000 veteran and a 4th year player respectively. Morneau’s early struggles have given Twain another shot. If Twain struggles, could we see a midseason call-up, Harnisch maybe? Rank 8th.
3rd - San Juan Senadores (16-10) – JR Lederle .211 / .623 – Rookie. With the injury to Larkin, San Juan shifted the Miller’s around giving Lederle playing time. This could cost them in the long run. RFank 15th.
4th - Taipei Tai Fong (18-8) – Dan Posedel .330 / .892 – Brand new 3 year / $13.5 million contract. Not a huge HR hitter, but can get you that extra base hit when needed. Rank 5th.
5th - Halifax Sailors (16-11) – Allan Mertes (vs. R) .288 / .765 Johnathan Zizzo (vs. L) .192 / .526 – 3rd and 4th year players respectively. Halifax has never been a big spender at 1B, instead relying on the natural depth that exists in the league. The platoon trial is about to come to a screeching halt, as Mertes clearly deserves the playing time ahead of Zizzo. Rank 10th.
6th - Paris Pimpernels (12-15) – Hee Seop Choi .315 / .983 – Perhaps one of the best 1B values at 3.25 million per year, Choi has found a great home in Paris. Still, at age 39, one wonders how many more years (months) Choi actually has. Rank 3rd.
7th - Scotland Rebels (14-14) – Henry Sanchez .186 / .614 – 4th year player. The once pride of the Kyoto farm system has never lived up to potential. Sosa or Gladden should get significant playing time soon. Rank 16th.
8th - Chiang Mai Kwaan (11-15) – Daniel Callahan .317 / .746 - 6th season. Callahan is not having the year he needs to grab that big contract in the off-season. Having zero Home Runs from a 1B position is not what any team is looking for. Rank 11th.
9th - Cleveland Dawgs (14-13) – Matthew Hamman .288 / .813 – Rookie. Considering the lack of depth on this team, Hamman is a nice find. Too bad he is struggling so bad against lefties. Cleveland is trying different combinations to make up for that.
10th - Osaka Ronin (11-16) – Prince Fielder .260 / .766 – To pay a slugger like Fielder $6 million a year, have him travel to Osaka, and then hit worse than normal is just a large insult to management. Rank 9th.
11th - Savannah Sabers (12-13) – Charlie Splittorff .339 / 1.016 – 3rd year player. After a terrible rookie performance, Splittorff has been on fire. Not sure why he’s not batting higher in the line-up. Rank 4th.
12th - Ireland Invaders (12-16) – Nicholas Weglarz .310 / .859 – 3rd year player. Just the opposite of Kyoto, Weglarz is having a career year. Although Nicholas has always had some pop, he has never had a great stroke at the plate. Rank 6th.
13th - Baltimore Panthers (14-10) – John Atwood .341 / 1.048 - 3rd year player. Atwood is picking up the slack for all of the offensive retirements suffered by the Panthers. Throw in a couple of stolen bases as well. If Baltimore is going to rebuild, Atwood could be a corner stone or, frankly, might have great trade value in the SLB this year with so many 1B’s struggling. Rank 2nd.
14th -Philadelphia Fever (11-13) – Ken Ryu (vs. L) .214 / .660 Gregory Golson (vs. R) .185 / .571 – Two veterans are platooning for the Fever. Neither can hit a right-handed pitcher. Maybe we can add their stats together… Rank 14th.
15th - Kyoto Bushido (9-17) – Mark Hamilton .212 / .676 – 4th year player. Kyoto can’t catch a break, as Mark Hamilton is having his worse by far. Someone who has a career .900 OP’s does not normally hit 300 points below. There must be an injury Kyoto is keeping secret. Rank 13th.
16th - Bedford Crunch (6-20) – Basil Elton-John .240 / .722 - 5th year player. Basil has always had a Home Run swing. 1 out of every 5 hits leaves the ballpark. Not quite having the season Bedford was hoping for. Rank 12th.
2nd - Atlanta Flyers (18-7) – Justin Morneau .200 / .599 John Twain .286 / .962 - $200,000 veteran and a 4th year player respectively. Morneau’s early struggles have given Twain another shot. If Twain struggles, could we see a midseason call-up, Harnisch maybe? Rank 8th.
3rd - San Juan Senadores (16-10) – JR Lederle .211 / .623 – Rookie. With the injury to Larkin, San Juan shifted the Miller’s around giving Lederle playing time. This could cost them in the long run. RFank 15th.
4th - Taipei Tai Fong (18-8) – Dan Posedel .330 / .892 – Brand new 3 year / $13.5 million contract. Not a huge HR hitter, but can get you that extra base hit when needed. Rank 5th.
5th - Halifax Sailors (16-11) – Allan Mertes (vs. R) .288 / .765 Johnathan Zizzo (vs. L) .192 / .526 – 3rd and 4th year players respectively. Halifax has never been a big spender at 1B, instead relying on the natural depth that exists in the league. The platoon trial is about to come to a screeching halt, as Mertes clearly deserves the playing time ahead of Zizzo. Rank 10th.
6th - Paris Pimpernels (12-15) – Hee Seop Choi .315 / .983 – Perhaps one of the best 1B values at 3.25 million per year, Choi has found a great home in Paris. Still, at age 39, one wonders how many more years (months) Choi actually has. Rank 3rd.
7th - Scotland Rebels (14-14) – Henry Sanchez .186 / .614 – 4th year player. The once pride of the Kyoto farm system has never lived up to potential. Sosa or Gladden should get significant playing time soon. Rank 16th.
8th - Chiang Mai Kwaan (11-15) – Daniel Callahan .317 / .746 - 6th season. Callahan is not having the year he needs to grab that big contract in the off-season. Having zero Home Runs from a 1B position is not what any team is looking for. Rank 11th.
9th - Cleveland Dawgs (14-13) – Matthew Hamman .288 / .813 – Rookie. Considering the lack of depth on this team, Hamman is a nice find. Too bad he is struggling so bad against lefties. Cleveland is trying different combinations to make up for that.
10th - Osaka Ronin (11-16) – Prince Fielder .260 / .766 – To pay a slugger like Fielder $6 million a year, have him travel to Osaka, and then hit worse than normal is just a large insult to management. Rank 9th.
11th - Savannah Sabers (12-13) – Charlie Splittorff .339 / 1.016 – 3rd year player. After a terrible rookie performance, Splittorff has been on fire. Not sure why he’s not batting higher in the line-up. Rank 4th.
12th - Ireland Invaders (12-16) – Nicholas Weglarz .310 / .859 – 3rd year player. Just the opposite of Kyoto, Weglarz is having a career year. Although Nicholas has always had some pop, he has never had a great stroke at the plate. Rank 6th.
13th - Baltimore Panthers (14-10) – John Atwood .341 / 1.048 - 3rd year player. Atwood is picking up the slack for all of the offensive retirements suffered by the Panthers. Throw in a couple of stolen bases as well. If Baltimore is going to rebuild, Atwood could be a corner stone or, frankly, might have great trade value in the SLB this year with so many 1B’s struggling. Rank 2nd.
14th -Philadelphia Fever (11-13) – Ken Ryu (vs. L) .214 / .660 Gregory Golson (vs. R) .185 / .571 – Two veterans are platooning for the Fever. Neither can hit a right-handed pitcher. Maybe we can add their stats together… Rank 14th.
15th - Kyoto Bushido (9-17) – Mark Hamilton .212 / .676 – 4th year player. Kyoto can’t catch a break, as Mark Hamilton is having his worse by far. Someone who has a career .900 OP’s does not normally hit 300 points below. There must be an injury Kyoto is keeping secret. Rank 13th.
16th - Bedford Crunch (6-20) – Basil Elton-John .240 / .722 - 5th year player. Basil has always had a Home Run swing. 1 out of every 5 hits leaves the ballpark. Not quite having the season Bedford was hoping for. Rank 12th.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Hot Stove Heater: American League South (Dylan)
What happened last year: While Halifax and London won their divisions by double digits, and Taipei won the Far East's battle of attrition, Atlanta and San Juan actually had a competitive, well-played fight to the finish.
In the end, Atlanta finished on top, going 98-62, four games ahead of San Juan's 94-66 mark.
Baltimore? Need you even ask? The Panthers finished 77-83. Savannah ended in last, with a 73-87 record.
The Flyers and the Senadores fought tooth and nail till the final day of the regular season — and then fought some more in the first round of the playoffs. Atlanta knocked out SJ four games to one before bowing out to Halifax in the ALCS.
For the Flyers in the regular season, it was more of the same. Darren Lemming continued his assault on the record books, Curt Smaza (34 home runs) and Justin Morneau (32) cranked out over 30 bombs, the Flyers scored 1004 runs (not a typo), and, oh yeah, Homer Bailey and Carlos Zambrano combined for a 36-13 record.
For the negatives ... Ryan Tucker and Al Krieger, long assumed to be the heirs to the Bailey/Zambrano throne, struggled a bit. Tucker finished with a 4.26 ERA and Krieger went 10-16 with a 5.83 mark. God bless run support, Tucker went 17-5.
San Juan's offense was quite as high-powered as the Flyers' (the Senadores crossed the plate 876 times, good for sixth in SLB) but they scored enough to tide over a pretty fierce staff (4.61 ERA, good for fifth in the league).
Shortstop Floyd Larkin pulled a Diego Clemente and hit 39 home runs with 140 RBIs and 28 stolen bases. And he didn't even lead the team in OPS. Left fielder Matt Musser hit .345 with 25 homers and 27 triples, good for an OPS of 1.001. As if that weren't enough, he stole 62 bases, too.
Jeff Niemann finally lived up to his potential, going 17-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 223 strikeouts and Kevin Thompson, acquired in a trade from Taipei (who acquired him in a trade from CHNG), finished 11-10 but posted a 3.48 ERA.
Oh Baltimore. It has to be hard being the Panthers. They got years out of Frank Vanderwal (.348 average!!!!??), Albert Pujols, Dallas McPherson and John Atwood that the fans had been clamoring for. Dennis Tankersly, Zach Putnam and Ben Cepeda pitched very well, the bullpen was, at worst, average, and yet the Panthers had to wake up every day in the same division with Atlanta and San Juan.
Same for Savannah. They had the same ERA as San Juan (and 0.01 better than Atlanta, too), but scored 108 fewer runs than the Senadores. What does that get you? See: last place.
The Sabres' offense hit just 195 homers, fewer than every team except Taipei (182) and Halifax (187). Ironically, both those teams went to the postseason. Their offense was "led" by Miguel Cabrera (who underperformed) and the two-headed monster of Zach Tobin and Brandon Leahy. Not exactly fearsome.
Phillip Humber (15-7, 3.36 ERA, 199 Ks) was one of the better pitchers in the entire league and Dontrelle Willis made 22 starts and posted a 2.90 ERA.
What happened in the offseason: Not a whole hell of a lot, honestly. Despite a run made by Osaka at Darren Lemming (would he have hit 100 homers for the Ronin?), Atlanta matched an unprecedented $20 million deal. Atlanta also matched on K-Rod, while San Juan matched on Jeff Niemann and watched late-season pick up Kevin Thompson go. Savannah signed John Mayberry, the only move of note that the Sabers (and Baltimore, for that matter) made.
What will happen in 2019: Atlanta will get better pitching from Tucker and Krieger and will again hold off San Juan by just a few games, while Baltimore and Savannah will finish well below the two standard bearers. Lemming will continue his assault on the record books and will finish the season with over 450 home runs.
Top 5 pitchers:
Homer Bailey, Atlanta
Zach Putnam, Baltimore
Phillip Humber, Savannah
Carlos Zambrano, Atlanta
Jeff Niemann, San Juan
Top 5 hitters:
Darren Lemming, Atlanta
Floyd Larkin, San Juan
Matt Musser, San Juan
D2J, San Juan
Miguel Cabrera, Savannah
Top 5 prospects
Josh Rodriguez, Atlanta
Morton Henrikksen, Atlanta
Anthony Rodriguez, San Juan
Charlie Proly, San Juan
Virgil Johnson, Baltimore
Predicted order of finish
Atlanta, San Juan, Savannah, Baltimore
In the end, Atlanta finished on top, going 98-62, four games ahead of San Juan's 94-66 mark.
Baltimore? Need you even ask? The Panthers finished 77-83. Savannah ended in last, with a 73-87 record.
The Flyers and the Senadores fought tooth and nail till the final day of the regular season — and then fought some more in the first round of the playoffs. Atlanta knocked out SJ four games to one before bowing out to Halifax in the ALCS.
For the Flyers in the regular season, it was more of the same. Darren Lemming continued his assault on the record books, Curt Smaza (34 home runs) and Justin Morneau (32) cranked out over 30 bombs, the Flyers scored 1004 runs (not a typo), and, oh yeah, Homer Bailey and Carlos Zambrano combined for a 36-13 record.
For the negatives ... Ryan Tucker and Al Krieger, long assumed to be the heirs to the Bailey/Zambrano throne, struggled a bit. Tucker finished with a 4.26 ERA and Krieger went 10-16 with a 5.83 mark. God bless run support, Tucker went 17-5.
San Juan's offense was quite as high-powered as the Flyers' (the Senadores crossed the plate 876 times, good for sixth in SLB) but they scored enough to tide over a pretty fierce staff (4.61 ERA, good for fifth in the league).
Shortstop Floyd Larkin pulled a Diego Clemente and hit 39 home runs with 140 RBIs and 28 stolen bases. And he didn't even lead the team in OPS. Left fielder Matt Musser hit .345 with 25 homers and 27 triples, good for an OPS of 1.001. As if that weren't enough, he stole 62 bases, too.
Jeff Niemann finally lived up to his potential, going 17-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 223 strikeouts and Kevin Thompson, acquired in a trade from Taipei (who acquired him in a trade from CHNG), finished 11-10 but posted a 3.48 ERA.
Oh Baltimore. It has to be hard being the Panthers. They got years out of Frank Vanderwal (.348 average!!!!??), Albert Pujols, Dallas McPherson and John Atwood that the fans had been clamoring for. Dennis Tankersly, Zach Putnam and Ben Cepeda pitched very well, the bullpen was, at worst, average, and yet the Panthers had to wake up every day in the same division with Atlanta and San Juan.
Same for Savannah. They had the same ERA as San Juan (and 0.01 better than Atlanta, too), but scored 108 fewer runs than the Senadores. What does that get you? See: last place.
The Sabres' offense hit just 195 homers, fewer than every team except Taipei (182) and Halifax (187). Ironically, both those teams went to the postseason. Their offense was "led" by Miguel Cabrera (who underperformed) and the two-headed monster of Zach Tobin and Brandon Leahy. Not exactly fearsome.
Phillip Humber (15-7, 3.36 ERA, 199 Ks) was one of the better pitchers in the entire league and Dontrelle Willis made 22 starts and posted a 2.90 ERA.
What happened in the offseason: Not a whole hell of a lot, honestly. Despite a run made by Osaka at Darren Lemming (would he have hit 100 homers for the Ronin?), Atlanta matched an unprecedented $20 million deal. Atlanta also matched on K-Rod, while San Juan matched on Jeff Niemann and watched late-season pick up Kevin Thompson go. Savannah signed John Mayberry, the only move of note that the Sabers (and Baltimore, for that matter) made.
What will happen in 2019: Atlanta will get better pitching from Tucker and Krieger and will again hold off San Juan by just a few games, while Baltimore and Savannah will finish well below the two standard bearers. Lemming will continue his assault on the record books and will finish the season with over 450 home runs.
Top 5 pitchers:
Homer Bailey, Atlanta
Zach Putnam, Baltimore
Phillip Humber, Savannah
Carlos Zambrano, Atlanta
Jeff Niemann, San Juan
Top 5 hitters:
Darren Lemming, Atlanta
Floyd Larkin, San Juan
Matt Musser, San Juan
D2J, San Juan
Miguel Cabrera, Savannah
Top 5 prospects
Josh Rodriguez, Atlanta
Morton Henrikksen, Atlanta
Anthony Rodriguez, San Juan
Charlie Proly, San Juan
Virgil Johnson, Baltimore
Predicted order of finish
Atlanta, San Juan, Savannah, Baltimore
Hot Stove Heater: American League South (Darin)
What happened last year: San Juan and Atlanta battled in the most hotly contested division race in the league, with the Flyers hanging on in the end and the Senadores snatching the wildcard. Neither won the pennant. Baltimore showed some improvement, posting a winning record on the road (and vs. the WL) but they failed to finish with a winning record for the 13th straight year. Savannah brought up the rear after a down year from several key players. Atlanta superstar Darren Lemming won his 4th MVP award and the league's first ever Triple Crown with his ludicrous .381, 54, 145 line. Homer Bailey had another Cy Young caliber season (17 wins, 251 K's) while Zambrano won 19. Baltimore saw three veterans hang it up after the season; Pujols, Guerrero and McPherson all called it a day, with the latter making the Hall of Fame. Surprisingly good starting pitching on the Panthers kept them respectable. San Juan's young offense clicked all year, with Larkin putting up legit MVP numbers. Five San Juan pitchers eclipsed 10 wins. Savannah's offense was anemic, finishing last in the AL in runs and homers. Phillip Humber was dominating as usual, and reliever Wade Townsand managed to collect 16 decisions in just 80 IP.
What happened in the offseason: The South saw some pitching head overseas. Baltimore veteran Dennis Tankersly signed with Paris, while San Juan hurler Kevin Thompson inked a deal in Ireland. The Panthers signed Jed Lowrie, who put up great numbers in the spring and will replace McPherson. After leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, Atlanta sent a draft pick to Ireland to reacquire Rene Delmas, who is penciled into their rotation despite getting roughed up this spring. San Juan continued to shop Dennis Dennis around, but has had no takers.
What will happen this year: Looks like more of the same, though San Juan looks the best on paper. Their offense is hitting their prime and the starting pitching is the best top to bottom. Atlanta will have a terrific offense, but the back end of the rotation and bullpen are looking like danger spots. Seeing Guerrero and McPherson retire is probably a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, who have failed to fully commit to a youth movement. We'll see if their young and talented rotation can finally get the team a winning record. Savannah needs a lot of help and will continue to struggle; expect them to be active on the trade market.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Homer Bailey (ATL), 2. Zach Putnam (BAL), 3. Phillip Humber (SAV), 4. Carlos Zambrano (ATL), 5. Alvin Dailey (SJ)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. CF Darren Lemming (ATL), 2. SS Floyd Larkin (SJ), 3. RF Dennis Dennis Jr. (SJ), 4.CF Buzz Bliss (SJ), 5. 2B Curt Smaza (ATL)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. 3B Josh Rodriguez (ATL), 2. SP Anthony Rodriguez (SJ), 3. SP Chico Salazar (SAV), 4. RF Charlie Proly (SJ), 5. SP Peanuts Plantier (ATL)
Order of Finish: 1. SJ, 2. ATL, 3. BAL, 4. SAV
What happened in the offseason: The South saw some pitching head overseas. Baltimore veteran Dennis Tankersly signed with Paris, while San Juan hurler Kevin Thompson inked a deal in Ireland. The Panthers signed Jed Lowrie, who put up great numbers in the spring and will replace McPherson. After leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, Atlanta sent a draft pick to Ireland to reacquire Rene Delmas, who is penciled into their rotation despite getting roughed up this spring. San Juan continued to shop Dennis Dennis around, but has had no takers.
What will happen this year: Looks like more of the same, though San Juan looks the best on paper. Their offense is hitting their prime and the starting pitching is the best top to bottom. Atlanta will have a terrific offense, but the back end of the rotation and bullpen are looking like danger spots. Seeing Guerrero and McPherson retire is probably a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, who have failed to fully commit to a youth movement. We'll see if their young and talented rotation can finally get the team a winning record. Savannah needs a lot of help and will continue to struggle; expect them to be active on the trade market.
Division's 5 best pitchers: 1. Homer Bailey (ATL), 2. Zach Putnam (BAL), 3. Phillip Humber (SAV), 4. Carlos Zambrano (ATL), 5. Alvin Dailey (SJ)
Division's 5 best batters: 1. CF Darren Lemming (ATL), 2. SS Floyd Larkin (SJ), 3. RF Dennis Dennis Jr. (SJ), 4.CF Buzz Bliss (SJ), 5. 2B Curt Smaza (ATL)
Division's 5 best prospects: 1. 3B Josh Rodriguez (ATL), 2. SP Anthony Rodriguez (SJ), 3. SP Chico Salazar (SAV), 4. RF Charlie Proly (SJ), 5. SP Peanuts Plantier (ATL)
Order of Finish: 1. SJ, 2. ATL, 3. BAL, 4. SAV
Hot Stove Heater: American League North (Dylan)
Dylan
What happened in 2018: Halifax ran away with the division, winning 98 games - second most in SLB - and eventually taking the World Series four games to three over Paris. The Sailors swung a masterful deal in June, dealing, well, not much of anything to Chiang for Mark Prior. The big righty had struggled in the Far East, but righted his ship once he made the move and helped Halifax to its first championship since 2012. The Sailors got strong seasons from basically their entire offense and received fantastic years from Prior (13-10, 3.77 ERA), Cy Young winnerJohan Santana (20-1, 3.34) and El Ron Ubardo (13-8, 3.35).
Bedford and Philly finished with identical 77-83 records and missed the playoffs. The Fever put on an offensive show, Andy Hunter (53 home runs, 143 RBIs, 112 runs) supplied most of the power while Jay Bruce (.349 average, 144 runs, 44 doubles, 30 triples, 36 home runs, 105 RBIs and 36 stolen bases) turned in one of the most complete seasons in SLB history and won the division's MVP award. Where did it go wrong? No pitcher had an ERA under 4.52. When your best ERA is turned in by a guy named Phil Coughty, you know you're in trouble. Rich Harden disappointed with a 5.32 ERA - his worst since 2005. The pitching staff erased any chance of a Fever postseason.
For Bedford, its problems appropriately mirrored Philly's. The offense was solid - though not as spectacular as the Fever's - but the pitching staff fell apart. Luke Hochevar (9-7, 3.32) was great and Ted Striker was solid (12-9, 4.06) but the Crunch failed to get meaningful innings out of any other pitcher until Connors Graham tossed 18.2 innings of 1.93 ERA ball late in the season.
Todric Johnson (.326/.371/.610) mashed and Basil Elton-John smoked 35 home runs in just 477 at bats, but the hitting couldn't overcome the meager pitching.
Where to start for Cleveland? They won just 69 games, worst in the American League. Their offense was middle of the road. Their pitching? In a word, it was miserable. Only Osaka (6.64) had a worse ERA than the Dawgs' 5.72 mark. Mike Miller was the "headliner" with his 13-11, 4.54 performance. Someone named Chas Keohane was allowed to log 110 innings of 7.28 ERA, a number that would make even Osaka wince. More embarrassing than even that woeful mark was the 72.1 innings of 10.58 (TEN FIFTY EIGHT) ERA that Maurice Rodriguez threw up (literally). This staff's performance better have cost someone a job, that's all I can say.
The offense fared much better. Tex Austin (.313/.374/.625, 48-126) had a fantastic season, Alex Hildebrand stole 34 bases and hit .331/.372/.591 with 32 home runs and when healthy, catcher Neil Walker (.342/.405/.578) mashed.
On the flipside, Juan Pierre hit .205 but was somehow allowed to steal 293 at bats. Overall, it was just a disaster for Cleveland.
What happened in the offseason: Halifax, riding high off its championship season, re-signed Justin Upton, grabbed reliever Tim Gudex out of Kyoto and signed Josh Barfield. They did let Ubardo go out east to Taipei, but pitching was not their problem last year and Gudex will help shore up their bullpen.
Philly re-signed third baseman Evan Longoria, whose talent has never matched his production, and in an appropriate move, signed Doug Waechter from Bedford. The Crunch tossed deals at mediocre pitching, apparently hoping to steal the San Juan playbook of "hit a lot and get pitching performances from nobodies" while Cleveland grabbed reliever Reed Rothchild to strengthen the pen and got a potential steal in signing the always-disappointing but apparently renewed Matt Bush for under $2 million a season.
What will happen in 2019: Halifax will again run away with the division. That's it in a nutshell. They won 21 more games than anyone else in the North last year and they should do it again this year. I wouldn't say that they got appreciably better from last season to this season, but they didn't get worse and that should get it done considering that no one else in the division got better, either. Philly and Bedford still can't pitch and neither can Cleveland. Someone tell Sailors' GM Larsen Cain to set his alarm for when the playoffs start. He can nap until then.
Predicted order of finish:
Halifax, Philly, Bedford, Cleveland.
Top 5 pitchers
Mark Prior - Halifax
Johan Santana - Halifax
Luke Hochevar - Bedford
Justin Verlander - Halifax
Rich Harden - Philly
Top 5 Hitters
1. Jay Bruce - Philly
2. Tex Austin - Cleveland
3. Andy Hunter - Philly
4. Justin Upton - Halifax
5. Alex Hildebrand - Cleveland
Top 5 prospects
1. Jason Wilber - Philly
2. Samuel Archibald - Halifax
3. Hunter Johnson - Bedord
4. Dante Bichette Jr. - Cleveland
5. Greg Moore - Halifax
What happened in 2018: Halifax ran away with the division, winning 98 games - second most in SLB - and eventually taking the World Series four games to three over Paris. The Sailors swung a masterful deal in June, dealing, well, not much of anything to Chiang for Mark Prior. The big righty had struggled in the Far East, but righted his ship once he made the move and helped Halifax to its first championship since 2012. The Sailors got strong seasons from basically their entire offense and received fantastic years from Prior (13-10, 3.77 ERA), Cy Young winnerJohan Santana (20-1, 3.34) and El Ron Ubardo (13-8, 3.35).
Bedford and Philly finished with identical 77-83 records and missed the playoffs. The Fever put on an offensive show, Andy Hunter (53 home runs, 143 RBIs, 112 runs) supplied most of the power while Jay Bruce (.349 average, 144 runs, 44 doubles, 30 triples, 36 home runs, 105 RBIs and 36 stolen bases) turned in one of the most complete seasons in SLB history and won the division's MVP award. Where did it go wrong? No pitcher had an ERA under 4.52. When your best ERA is turned in by a guy named Phil Coughty, you know you're in trouble. Rich Harden disappointed with a 5.32 ERA - his worst since 2005. The pitching staff erased any chance of a Fever postseason.
For Bedford, its problems appropriately mirrored Philly's. The offense was solid - though not as spectacular as the Fever's - but the pitching staff fell apart. Luke Hochevar (9-7, 3.32) was great and Ted Striker was solid (12-9, 4.06) but the Crunch failed to get meaningful innings out of any other pitcher until Connors Graham tossed 18.2 innings of 1.93 ERA ball late in the season.
Todric Johnson (.326/.371/.610) mashed and Basil Elton-John smoked 35 home runs in just 477 at bats, but the hitting couldn't overcome the meager pitching.
Where to start for Cleveland? They won just 69 games, worst in the American League. Their offense was middle of the road. Their pitching? In a word, it was miserable. Only Osaka (6.64) had a worse ERA than the Dawgs' 5.72 mark. Mike Miller was the "headliner" with his 13-11, 4.54 performance. Someone named Chas Keohane was allowed to log 110 innings of 7.28 ERA, a number that would make even Osaka wince. More embarrassing than even that woeful mark was the 72.1 innings of 10.58 (TEN FIFTY EIGHT) ERA that Maurice Rodriguez threw up (literally). This staff's performance better have cost someone a job, that's all I can say.
The offense fared much better. Tex Austin (.313/.374/.625, 48-126) had a fantastic season, Alex Hildebrand stole 34 bases and hit .331/.372/.591 with 32 home runs and when healthy, catcher Neil Walker (.342/.405/.578) mashed.
On the flipside, Juan Pierre hit .205 but was somehow allowed to steal 293 at bats. Overall, it was just a disaster for Cleveland.
What happened in the offseason: Halifax, riding high off its championship season, re-signed Justin Upton, grabbed reliever Tim Gudex out of Kyoto and signed Josh Barfield. They did let Ubardo go out east to Taipei, but pitching was not their problem last year and Gudex will help shore up their bullpen.
Philly re-signed third baseman Evan Longoria, whose talent has never matched his production, and in an appropriate move, signed Doug Waechter from Bedford. The Crunch tossed deals at mediocre pitching, apparently hoping to steal the San Juan playbook of "hit a lot and get pitching performances from nobodies" while Cleveland grabbed reliever Reed Rothchild to strengthen the pen and got a potential steal in signing the always-disappointing but apparently renewed Matt Bush for under $2 million a season.
What will happen in 2019: Halifax will again run away with the division. That's it in a nutshell. They won 21 more games than anyone else in the North last year and they should do it again this year. I wouldn't say that they got appreciably better from last season to this season, but they didn't get worse and that should get it done considering that no one else in the division got better, either. Philly and Bedford still can't pitch and neither can Cleveland. Someone tell Sailors' GM Larsen Cain to set his alarm for when the playoffs start. He can nap until then.
Predicted order of finish:
Halifax, Philly, Bedford, Cleveland.
Top 5 pitchers
Mark Prior - Halifax
Johan Santana - Halifax
Luke Hochevar - Bedford
Justin Verlander - Halifax
Rich Harden - Philly
Top 5 Hitters
1. Jay Bruce - Philly
2. Tex Austin - Cleveland
3. Andy Hunter - Philly
4. Justin Upton - Halifax
5. Alex Hildebrand - Cleveland
Top 5 prospects
1. Jason Wilber - Philly
2. Samuel Archibald - Halifax
3. Hunter Johnson - Bedord
4. Dante Bichette Jr. - Cleveland
5. Greg Moore - Halifax
Hot Stove Heater: American League North (Darin)
Darin
What happened last year: It was a one horse race for most of the season, with World Champion Halifax clearly a cut above the rest. By season's end, the Sailors were
the only team with a winning record (their 98 wins tied with Atlanta for most in the American League) and they lead the division in both runs and team ERA. Halifax's offense was all about spreading the wealth (damn socialists!!!), with no hitter breaking 100 RBI, but five collecting 80+. The story of the pitching staff was Johan Santana, who won the Cy Young and almost went undefeated for the year. The rest of the rotation all won 11 or more games, while the bullpen managed to bend but not break in close games. Notable performances from other North Division players included Cleveland's explosive young right fielder Tex Austin (48 HR, 126 RBI) and the entire Philly outfield; Hunting, Bruce and Hunter combined for 373 runs, 110 HR and 360 RBI. Amazing. Bedford had good team speed as five different hitters had 20 or more steals.
What happened in the offseason: Not a lot of player movement in the North this offseason. Halifax lost El Ron Ubardo to Taipei, but signed lefty Tim Gudex to a rich contract. Cleveland beefed up it's woeful bullpen with the additions of William Buckner, Brandon Durden and Reed Rothchild, while Philly added Doug Waechter and Bedford rolled the dice on some vets.
What will happen this year: On paper, it looks like Halifax's division to lose again. A full year with Prior, Santana and Verlander in the rotation pegs them as easy favorites, and if they can get some good bullpen performances out of their stockpile of young arms, 90 wins should be easy. Cleveland is going to have a tremendous offense, but will their pitching keep them in games? Young guys like Voorhees and Rule 5 pickup Joe Archer need to step it up in a big way. Philly is due for a rebound after a down year. The offense is great, and if the pitching rotation can skew back to their career averages, the Fever could compete for the wildcard (or, with a trade or two, push Halifax for the division). Bedford....what to say about them? It's the team that under performs every single year. What is it about Brooklyn that sucks the life out of almost every player?
Five Best Pitchers:
1 - Mark Prior (HAL)
2 - Johan Santana (HAL)
3 - Luke Hochevar (BED)
4 - Rich Harden (PHI)
5 - Justin Verlander (HAL)
Five Best Hitters:
1 - Jay Bruce (PHI)
2 - Tex Austin (CLE)
3 - Andy Hunter (PHI)
4 - Will Hunting (PHI)
5 - Alex Hildenbrand (CLE)
Five Best Prospects:
1 - Jason Wilber (3B-PHI)
2 - Samuel Archibald (OF-HAL)
3 - Dante Bichette, Jr. (OF-CLE)
4 - Hunter Johnson (SP-BED)
5 - Ernie Fitzgerald (RP-PHI)
Predicted order of finish:
1 - Halifax
2 - Philly
3 - Cleveland
4 - Bedford
What happened last year: It was a one horse race for most of the season, with World Champion Halifax clearly a cut above the rest. By season's end, the Sailors were
the only team with a winning record (their 98 wins tied with Atlanta for most in the American League) and they lead the division in both runs and team ERA. Halifax's offense was all about spreading the wealth (damn socialists!!!), with no hitter breaking 100 RBI, but five collecting 80+. The story of the pitching staff was Johan Santana, who won the Cy Young and almost went undefeated for the year. The rest of the rotation all won 11 or more games, while the bullpen managed to bend but not break in close games. Notable performances from other North Division players included Cleveland's explosive young right fielder Tex Austin (48 HR, 126 RBI) and the entire Philly outfield; Hunting, Bruce and Hunter combined for 373 runs, 110 HR and 360 RBI. Amazing. Bedford had good team speed as five different hitters had 20 or more steals.
What happened in the offseason: Not a lot of player movement in the North this offseason. Halifax lost El Ron Ubardo to Taipei, but signed lefty Tim Gudex to a rich contract. Cleveland beefed up it's woeful bullpen with the additions of William Buckner, Brandon Durden and Reed Rothchild, while Philly added Doug Waechter and Bedford rolled the dice on some vets.
What will happen this year: On paper, it looks like Halifax's division to lose again. A full year with Prior, Santana and Verlander in the rotation pegs them as easy favorites, and if they can get some good bullpen performances out of their stockpile of young arms, 90 wins should be easy. Cleveland is going to have a tremendous offense, but will their pitching keep them in games? Young guys like Voorhees and Rule 5 pickup Joe Archer need to step it up in a big way. Philly is due for a rebound after a down year. The offense is great, and if the pitching rotation can skew back to their career averages, the Fever could compete for the wildcard (or, with a trade or two, push Halifax for the division). Bedford....what to say about them? It's the team that under performs every single year. What is it about Brooklyn that sucks the life out of almost every player?
Five Best Pitchers:
1 - Mark Prior (HAL)
2 - Johan Santana (HAL)
3 - Luke Hochevar (BED)
4 - Rich Harden (PHI)
5 - Justin Verlander (HAL)
Five Best Hitters:
1 - Jay Bruce (PHI)
2 - Tex Austin (CLE)
3 - Andy Hunter (PHI)
4 - Will Hunting (PHI)
5 - Alex Hildenbrand (CLE)
Five Best Prospects:
1 - Jason Wilber (3B-PHI)
2 - Samuel Archibald (OF-HAL)
3 - Dante Bichette, Jr. (OF-CLE)
4 - Hunter Johnson (SP-BED)
5 - Ernie Fitzgerald (RP-PHI)
Predicted order of finish:
1 - Halifax
2 - Philly
3 - Cleveland
4 - Bedford
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Year End Pythagorean Records
Bill James, famous for his "Baseball Abstract" and advancement of sabermetric baseball statistics, created a formula called Pythagorean Win Expectation. It uses a team's runs scored and runs allowed to calculate how many wins a team "should" have at any given time in a season. The theory is that a team's won-loss record (particularly at year's end) does not necessarily reflect how good or bad that team is.
Comparing a team's actual W-L record to their Pythagorean record can measure how "lucky" or "unlucky" a team is. A great recent example is the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who, despite being outscored by 20 runs by season's end, finished with a record of 90-72 and the NL West Division title. According to their Pythagorean Expecation, they should have finished 79-83, giving them a +11 Luck.
The formula, for those interested, is:
1 / 1 + (Runs Allowed/Runs Scored)^2
This will give you the expected winning %, and, when multiplied by 160 games, will give you the expected # of wins for a team based on their Run Differential (defined as Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed).
Some argue that using a power of 1.81 is more accurate, but for the purpose of this article, we'll keep it simple and use 2.
The following are the final standing for 2018 SLB based on Pythagorean records.
Overall, the software does a good job of keeping teams' records within a reasonable margin to their Pythagorean expectations. Two teams were exactly right, while 4 more were with a win or two of their projected win totals. Impressive.
Only the Far East saw a team "outluck" their way to the playoffs; the actual records between Taipei and Kyoto are 9 games off of what the run differentials say they should be, with Kyoto underperforming their way out of the post season.
Comparing a team's actual W-L record to their Pythagorean record can measure how "lucky" or "unlucky" a team is. A great recent example is the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who, despite being outscored by 20 runs by season's end, finished with a record of 90-72 and the NL West Division title. According to their Pythagorean Expecation, they should have finished 79-83, giving them a +11 Luck.
The formula, for those interested, is:
1 / 1 + (Runs Allowed/Runs Scored)^2
This will give you the expected winning %, and, when multiplied by 160 games, will give you the expected # of wins for a team based on their Run Differential (defined as Runs Scored minus Runs Allowed).
Some argue that using a power of 1.81 is more accurate, but for the purpose of this article, we'll keep it simple and use 2.
The following are the final standing for 2018 SLB based on Pythagorean records.
NORTH DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Halifax Sailors 97 63 905 734 +171 98 62 (+)1
Philly Fever 81 79 895 888 +7 77 83 (-)4
Bedford Crunch 77 83 790 823 -33 77 83 EVEN
Cleveland Dawgs 68 92 811 942 -131 69 91 (+)1
SOUTH DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta Flyers 99 61 1004 785 +219 98 62 (-)1
San Juan Senadores 90 70 876 777 +99 94 66 (+)4
Baltimore Panthers 80 80 787 788 -1 77 83 (-)3
Savannah Sabers 79 81 768 778 -10 73 87 (-)6
EURO DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
London Knights 104 56 954 704 +250 102 58 (-)2
Paris Pimpernels 86 74 889 825 +74 90 70 (+)4
Scotland Rebels 70 90 729 833 -104 78 82 (+)8
Ireland Invaders 52 108 649 936 -287 52 108 EVEN
FAR EAST DIVISION
TEAM PyW PyL RS RA DIFF ActW ActL LUCK
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Kyoto Bushido 85 75 800 754 +46 79 81 (-)6
Taipei Tai Fong 80 80 758 765 -7 83 77 (+)3
Chiang Mai Kwaan 78 82 852 869 -17 74 86 (-)4
Osaka Ronin 58 102 821 1085 -264 59 101 (+)1
Overall, the software does a good job of keeping teams' records within a reasonable margin to their Pythagorean expectations. Two teams were exactly right, while 4 more were with a win or two of their projected win totals. Impressive.
Only the Far East saw a team "outluck" their way to the playoffs; the actual records between Taipei and Kyoto are 9 games off of what the run differentials say they should be, with Kyoto underperforming their way out of the post season.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
News & Notes - August 10, 2018
It's been awhile since you've had one of these....
- In an act of utter division vs. division dominance this week, the entire South Division swept the entire Far East Division this past series. The net result was no teams gaining or losing any ground in either division.
- Chiang Mai was the busiest team at the deadline, but all the moves have resulted in disaster. The team has lost 16 of 18 games since 7/21, and 7 of 8 since the trade deadline. The Kwaan are now in 3rd place in the division, 3.5 out of first place and 2.5 out of the wildcard.
- Halifax's Johan Santana remains undefeated, winning his 14th straight decision. His numbers are good but not great, but the Sailors have averaged 7.2 runs in each of his wins this year (he also has 10 no-decisions).
- Atlanta's Darren Lemming has a ludicrous .807 Slugging % this year, racking up 73 extra-base hits in just 353 at-bats. In other words, he gets an extra-base hit in 1 out of every 5 AB's. SICK.
- Another Flyer has an odd stat: OF Gregory Burns leads the league in both runs and strikeouts.
- In career number news:
- Longtime career hits leader Jimmy Rollins (PAR) has been surpassed by SAV's Miguel Cabrera. At 2637 hits, Miggy leads Rollins by 31 knocks.
- Looks like we'll have to wait until 2019 for our first 500 HR hitter. Adam Dunn (age 37) leads with 484 career blasts.
- Rollins does lead in career runs (1512) and is the only SLB hitter to ever eclipse the 1500 run mark.
- KYO's C.C. Sabathia joins Mark Prior (HAL) as the 2nd ever player to reach 200 victories.
- Francisco Rodriguez (ATL) is the first player to pass 200 career saves.
- Josh Beckett (IRE) is just 18 strikeouts from reaching 3000 for his career. Sabathia is 52 K's from the milestone.
- Mark Prior is the first SLB pitcher to reach 3000 IP. Sabathia is 2 or 3 starts from joining him.
- In an act of utter division vs. division dominance this week, the entire South Division swept the entire Far East Division this past series. The net result was no teams gaining or losing any ground in either division.
- Chiang Mai was the busiest team at the deadline, but all the moves have resulted in disaster. The team has lost 16 of 18 games since 7/21, and 7 of 8 since the trade deadline. The Kwaan are now in 3rd place in the division, 3.5 out of first place and 2.5 out of the wildcard.
- Halifax's Johan Santana remains undefeated, winning his 14th straight decision. His numbers are good but not great, but the Sailors have averaged 7.2 runs in each of his wins this year (he also has 10 no-decisions).
- Atlanta's Darren Lemming has a ludicrous .807 Slugging % this year, racking up 73 extra-base hits in just 353 at-bats. In other words, he gets an extra-base hit in 1 out of every 5 AB's. SICK.
- Another Flyer has an odd stat: OF Gregory Burns leads the league in both runs and strikeouts.
- In career number news:
- Longtime career hits leader Jimmy Rollins (PAR) has been surpassed by SAV's Miguel Cabrera. At 2637 hits, Miggy leads Rollins by 31 knocks.
- Looks like we'll have to wait until 2019 for our first 500 HR hitter. Adam Dunn (age 37) leads with 484 career blasts.
- Rollins does lead in career runs (1512) and is the only SLB hitter to ever eclipse the 1500 run mark.
- KYO's C.C. Sabathia joins Mark Prior (HAL) as the 2nd ever player to reach 200 victories.
- Francisco Rodriguez (ATL) is the first player to pass 200 career saves.
- Josh Beckett (IRE) is just 18 strikeouts from reaching 3000 for his career. Sabathia is 52 K's from the milestone.
- Mark Prior is the first SLB pitcher to reach 3000 IP. Sabathia is 2 or 3 starts from joining him.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
2018 All Star Game Was a Joke
While it's no surprise that the All-Star Game usually has a few head-scratchers in the lineup, the 2018 game was full of complete whiffs. SLB has never used fan balloting, stating that their high-powered computer matrix does a better job of picking the teams. Fan voting is prone to homerism and popularity, but the league's system is completely broken.
Let's look at the stats and put together some better starting lineups (hint: this won't be hard to do).
American League
C - Neil Walker (CLE) - The computer got this one right. Walker was hitting .330 and slugging .538 at the break. No other AL catcher was hitting over .300. [CPU - Neil Walker]
1B - Justin Morneau (ATL) - The first of many, many snubs. Morneau had 71 RBI and was slugging .553, both leading all AL first basemen. [CPU - John Atwood (BAL)]
2B - Frank Vanderwal (BAL) - Another pick I can agree with the CPU on. Vanderwal is scalding the ball to the tune of a .361 average and a .609 SLG. [CPU- Frank Vanderwal]
3B - Chest Rockwell (ATL) - Probably the biggest snub on the AL squad. Rockwell hasn't slowed down at all since signing with Atlanta, belting 33 HR and 78 RBI to date. How does he get overlooked? [CPU - Miguel Cabrera (SAV)]
SS - Floyd Larkin (SJ) - Perennial All-Star who did nothing to lose his spot on the team. Nearly a .900 OPS and a team leading 32 BB's. [CPU - Matt Bush (CLE)]
LF - Andy Hunter (PHI) - This was a tough call. The computer took Matt Musser from San Juan, which is a pretty tough guy to argue with. Musser has a better OPS than Hunter, but has just 16 HR, 55 RBI compared to Hunter's 28 HR and 82 RBI. [CPU - Matt Musser (SJ)]
CF - Jay Bruce (PHI) - This is a pretty deep position in the AL. Darren Lemming was the obvious choice, but hit the DL just before the All Star break. Bruce is OPSing 1.021 and just crushing the ball for a ton of extra-base hits. [CPU - Jay Bruce]
RF - Will Hunting (PHI) - Yep, I picked an all-Fever outfield, though you could easily go with all Senadores as well. Hunting is one of the most consistently productive outfielders in recent SLB history. Will he ever win the MVP? [CPU - Will Hunting]
World League
C - Elmer Kennedy (OSKA) - The Ronin rookie has comparable OPS numbers to several other WL catchers, but his run production is better. At 20 HR and 57 RBI, Kennedy has fit right in on the powerful Osaka lineup. [CPU - Al Murphy (IRE)]
1B - Hee-Seop Choi (PAR) - Almost as big a snub as Rockwell in the AL. There are all sorts of great first basemen in the WL (Hamilton, McNulty, Johnson, Posedel) but Choi has been exceptional. [CPU - Mark Hamilton (KYO)]
2B - T.J. Mackey (LON) - Mackey has had an up and down career, but he's been a big part of London's division run so far this year. Gotta love a .561 SLG from a middle infielder. [CPU - Cap Jackson (CHNG)]
3B - Howie Sloat (CHNG) - Where did this guy come from? A .362 average and nearly 80 RBI at the break? How does the CPU bench this guy for Hank frigging Blalock? [CPU - Hank frigging Blalock (SCOT)]
SS - Spaz Dinkman (PAR) - Not much to choose from here. Meh. [CPU - Spaz Dinkman]
LF - Reuben Brown (OSKA) - Finally, the CPU gets something right. Brown has picked up the offensive slack with Montana and Rockwell off on new teams. [CPU - Brown]
CF - Warren McFadden (LON) - This is a legit MVP candidate. His OPS is nearly 1.100. Jesus. [CPU - McFadden]
RF - Joe Belinda (CHNG) - It's a coin flip between Belinda and London's Delmon Young but I took Belinda. So there. [CPU - Delmon Young (LON)]
Let's look at the stats and put together some better starting lineups (hint: this won't be hard to do).
American League
C - Neil Walker (CLE) - The computer got this one right. Walker was hitting .330 and slugging .538 at the break. No other AL catcher was hitting over .300. [CPU - Neil Walker]
1B - Justin Morneau (ATL) - The first of many, many snubs. Morneau had 71 RBI and was slugging .553, both leading all AL first basemen. [CPU - John Atwood (BAL)]
2B - Frank Vanderwal (BAL) - Another pick I can agree with the CPU on. Vanderwal is scalding the ball to the tune of a .361 average and a .609 SLG. [CPU- Frank Vanderwal]
3B - Chest Rockwell (ATL) - Probably the biggest snub on the AL squad. Rockwell hasn't slowed down at all since signing with Atlanta, belting 33 HR and 78 RBI to date. How does he get overlooked? [CPU - Miguel Cabrera (SAV)]
SS - Floyd Larkin (SJ) - Perennial All-Star who did nothing to lose his spot on the team. Nearly a .900 OPS and a team leading 32 BB's. [CPU - Matt Bush (CLE)]
LF - Andy Hunter (PHI) - This was a tough call. The computer took Matt Musser from San Juan, which is a pretty tough guy to argue with. Musser has a better OPS than Hunter, but has just 16 HR, 55 RBI compared to Hunter's 28 HR and 82 RBI. [CPU - Matt Musser (SJ)]
CF - Jay Bruce (PHI) - This is a pretty deep position in the AL. Darren Lemming was the obvious choice, but hit the DL just before the All Star break. Bruce is OPSing 1.021 and just crushing the ball for a ton of extra-base hits. [CPU - Jay Bruce]
RF - Will Hunting (PHI) - Yep, I picked an all-Fever outfield, though you could easily go with all Senadores as well. Hunting is one of the most consistently productive outfielders in recent SLB history. Will he ever win the MVP? [CPU - Will Hunting]
World League
C - Elmer Kennedy (OSKA) - The Ronin rookie has comparable OPS numbers to several other WL catchers, but his run production is better. At 20 HR and 57 RBI, Kennedy has fit right in on the powerful Osaka lineup. [CPU - Al Murphy (IRE)]
1B - Hee-Seop Choi (PAR) - Almost as big a snub as Rockwell in the AL. There are all sorts of great first basemen in the WL (Hamilton, McNulty, Johnson, Posedel) but Choi has been exceptional. [CPU - Mark Hamilton (KYO)]
2B - T.J. Mackey (LON) - Mackey has had an up and down career, but he's been a big part of London's division run so far this year. Gotta love a .561 SLG from a middle infielder. [CPU - Cap Jackson (CHNG)]
3B - Howie Sloat (CHNG) - Where did this guy come from? A .362 average and nearly 80 RBI at the break? How does the CPU bench this guy for Hank frigging Blalock? [CPU - Hank frigging Blalock (SCOT)]
SS - Spaz Dinkman (PAR) - Not much to choose from here. Meh. [CPU - Spaz Dinkman]
LF - Reuben Brown (OSKA) - Finally, the CPU gets something right. Brown has picked up the offensive slack with Montana and Rockwell off on new teams. [CPU - Brown]
CF - Warren McFadden (LON) - This is a legit MVP candidate. His OPS is nearly 1.100. Jesus. [CPU - McFadden]
RF - Joe Belinda (CHNG) - It's a coin flip between Belinda and London's Delmon Young but I took Belinda. So there. [CPU - Delmon Young (LON)]
Sunday, July 27, 2008
First opinions - 2018 SLB Draft first round
Here's an early look at an analysis of the 2018 SLB Draft first round.
Darin covered the first eight picks, I covered the last eight.
Enjoy!
1. TAI – 2B Mook Jockster (Ole Miss) – This is both a great and difficult year to have the #1 overall pick. On the one hand, there is tremendous depth, especially in hitting. On the other, there is no de facto "best" player. You'll get a great player, but you're afraid you'll let a better one slip away. Such was the fate of Dylan Goforth. His pick this year was the switch-hitting second baseman Mook Jockster. It's an interesting pick; it's debatable that Jockster is the best available player (he's probably not even the best at his own school), and he plays a position that isn't one of need in Taipei's system. In fact, the Tai Fong don't have a single 3B in their system, making this pick even more curious, especially considering the depth at that position in this draft. Jockster had a tremendous year, batting .363 and posting a nearly 1:1 BB:K ratio. Jockster will be a very good player (this isn't Damion Douglas #1 overall here) but was he the right pick for the team?
2. PHI – 3B Jason Wilber (Ole Miss) – Back to back Rebels taken to kick off the draft. Wilber is considered by many as the best of a very deep class of third baseman. The NCAA Player of the Year broke the collegiate record for HR in a season and could step right into a starting role next season with Philly. Evan Longoria is currently the only 3B in the Fever system, and he is at the end of his current contract. The 24 year old Wilber has the tools to step right in at the major league level and contribute, so this is a very smart pick.
3. ATL – 3B Josh Rodriguez (Rice) – The Flyers jumped up in the draft lottery this year and swiped "J-Rod", a former All American from the Rice Owls. Though scouts aren't as impressed with his skill set as some of the other third basemen in the draft, the on-field results are tough to argue with. Rodriguez capped his four-year career by batting .401/.459/.738, striking out just 36 times in 344 AB's. J-Rod finished his college play with a career 1.048 OPS, 165 doubles, 96 HR and 314 RBI.
4. OSKA – 3B Ben Parker (Florida) – This was possibly the most predictable pick in the draft. Chest Rockwell leaving Osaka for Atlanta left a void that needed to be filled, and GM Tom Hey found his man. Parker is a left-handed, fly ball hitting third baseman with gold glove defense (something Rockwell did NOT have). Parker perhaps needs a little more refining than some of the other third base draftees, but Hey isn't known for his patience with prospects, and I expect to see this former Gator in the lineup by year's end. What's not to like about a kid who can hit 35 HR and Slug .741? Good pick.
5. KYO – 3B Shuhei Iwata (Cal St. Fullerton) – The run on third basemen continues. Kyoto is another team with a need at the position, and their scouts loved the Japan native on Cal St. Fullerton. Unlike some of the other hot corner players in the draft, Iwata is more or less a two-tool player. His defense is not good, and he has catcher's speed. He also had a subpar year in college (compared to other draftees), hitting just .272 with 23 HR and 63 RBI. Is Kyoto GM Darin Keesing concerned? "Not at all. We feel he has the same skill set as Albert Pujols, and all that guy has done is hit 455 HR." This will be an interesting prospect to keep an eye on, as we've seen that collegiate play doesn't always equate with pro ball; just look at Diego Clemente's college numbers if you want Exhibit A.
6. BAL – C Calver Alkoa (Arizona) – The incredible depth at third base in this year's draft is offset by an extremely thin crop of catchers. While Baltimore certainly can use a catching prospect, this pick brings up the common debate over first round picks: do you draft for need or do you take the best available player regardless of position? Alkoa is a decent looking prospect, a lefty hitter who had a good power year for the Wildcats, but there are definitely better hitters available at this pick. GM Jose Gutierrez is known for not always making the obvious choice, but recently he has come out on top with his early draft picks. Personally, I think he took the second best catcher in the draft, but history will decide who's right.
7. BED – SS Sheyne Baniaga (Cal St. Fullerton) – Baniaga is the second Titan taken in the first 7 picks. A switch-hitting short stop with elite power and gold glove defensive abilities come around extremely rarely and Bedford is a team starving for offense. Baniaga hit just 16 HR (and 59 in his career), but Crunch scouts think he'll adapt well to the wooden bat. The team has a pair of young SS's on the major league roster, so they have some time to groom Baniaga before thrusting him into the limelight.
8. CLE – 1B Matthew Hamman (Wichita St.) – The Dawgs looked to add another piece to their home-grown offense, choosing to upgrade at first base. Hamman is a switch-hitter with a good eye at the plate and developing power. He led his team with 28 HR while batting .350. He picked the right time to peak, having hit just 48 HR in his previous 3 years. Cleveland has done an impressive job drafting hitters, and first base was an obvious area to upgrade, as Al Allen and Al Siever just haven't risen above bench player status.
- By Darin Keesing
9. IRE – 3B Kainalu Chmolak (LSU)
You know Ireland was thinking catcher here after drafting one seemingly every year, but Baltimore took Alokoa with the sixth pick. Chmolak is no booby prize, however. He’s a switch hitter with just ridiculous power, but scouts say he has a hole in his swing that SLB pitchers can exploit. He’s a career .320 hitter in college, though, so the truth may be that the juice in his bat hides any deficiencies. Ireland isn’t too enamored with current third baseman Barry Rosen, so Chmolak might get the call sooner rather than later.
10. BAL – 2B Luke Daughetry (BAY)
With their second pick of the first round, Baltimore settled on Daughetry. He compares well to Jockster, who went first overall. Like Taipei’s new second sacker, Daughetry is a switch hitter with power to spare – even more so in fact – but he isn’t quite the contact hitter that Jockster is. The Panthers currently have Frank Vanderwall and his .380 average sitting at second base, so they can afford to groom Daughetry for the future.
11. CHNG – CF Dreshon Murray (WICH)
It’s rare to find a centerfielder with the kind of power that Murray displays. In fact, there’s not one in the entire SLB that can match Murray punch-for-punch. The only problem that scouts see with Murray is that he spent so much time in the weight room at Wichita State that he lost some flexibility and as a result, his swing doesn’t generate the same amount of lift that most power hitters do. Right now, the Kwaan have their outfield set, but if Trevor Bayne continues his struggles, Murray may end up in the big leagues soon.
12. SAV – SP Holden Whitley (MIA)
In an offense laden draft, it took until the twelfth pick to see a pitcher come off the board. Whitley has all kinds of measurables, he throws hard (with room for improvement), he has good control, good endurance and he’s great at holding runners. He’s got projectable fastball that’s already good enough for the SLB, but his secondary pitches are lacking. His slider looks like it could be a big league pitch one day, but his curveball looks like it will never be anything more than a last resort. Whitley has a career 21-21 record with a 4.46 ERA, but he really put things together his senior year, going 7-2 and lowering his ERA to 3.27.
13. LON – 2B Augustine Ortiz (WICH)
Like it was for the hot corner, this draft was thick in second baseman. The sweet-swinging lefty makes tons of contact (A career .360 hitter) and uses his speed and quick bat to pound balls into the gaps for extra bases (178 career doubles). The first two second basemen drafted were more of the thick-necked variety, but Ortiz is no slouch, either. London is currently enjoying a rebirth of sorts from T.J. Mackey, so don’t expect to see Ortiz in the bigs for a while.
14. SJ - 2B Jonathan Stephens (MIA)
Stephens is the fourth second baseman taken in the first round, and he’s more like Ortiz than Jockster or Daughetry. His bat will play just a step below Ortiz’, but Stephens is the fastest of the second basemen drafted in the first round. Stephens hit .335 last year, but continued to struggle versus lefthanded pitching, batting just .242 against them, lower than his .266 career mark. The Senadores are currently just three games behind Atlanta, but with Baltimore hot on their tails, it might be hard for Gluvna to leave Stephens down for too long.
15. HAL - (R) Jerry Bennett (ARZ)
Guess what, another second baseman. Again, Bennett has more of a prototypical second baseman’s bat - if not a shortstop’s, truthfully. He has a quick bat and great speed, but he’s never going to be a home run hitter. Scouts say that his swing is tailor made to dominate lefties. It’s just never happened. Bennett hit just .269 against them last year and is just a .277 hitter against them in his career. Things like that tend to get overlooked when you smash righthanded pitching the way he has, you just have to wonder how his those skills and numbers will translate against more advanced pitching. Halifax has Jed Lowrie in the last year of his contract currently playing second base, so we may see Bennett up in the bigs by 2019.
16. PAR - 2B Bucky Covington (ND)
Of course the draft ends with another second baseman. This sweet swinging lefty is also a sweet singing lefty… he almost turned down his scholarship offer to Notre Dame to pursue a music career. In the end the Golden Domers won out, and Covington responded by hitting .323 in 314 career games. He’s not overly powerful or overly fast, but he projects to potentially add speed and strength which could push him into the realm of the elite second basemen.
- By Dylan Goforth
Darin covered the first eight picks, I covered the last eight.
Enjoy!
1. TAI – 2B Mook Jockster (Ole Miss) – This is both a great and difficult year to have the #1 overall pick. On the one hand, there is tremendous depth, especially in hitting. On the other, there is no de facto "best" player. You'll get a great player, but you're afraid you'll let a better one slip away. Such was the fate of Dylan Goforth. His pick this year was the switch-hitting second baseman Mook Jockster. It's an interesting pick; it's debatable that Jockster is the best available player (he's probably not even the best at his own school), and he plays a position that isn't one of need in Taipei's system. In fact, the Tai Fong don't have a single 3B in their system, making this pick even more curious, especially considering the depth at that position in this draft. Jockster had a tremendous year, batting .363 and posting a nearly 1:1 BB:K ratio. Jockster will be a very good player (this isn't Damion Douglas #1 overall here) but was he the right pick for the team?
2. PHI – 3B Jason Wilber (Ole Miss) – Back to back Rebels taken to kick off the draft. Wilber is considered by many as the best of a very deep class of third baseman. The NCAA Player of the Year broke the collegiate record for HR in a season and could step right into a starting role next season with Philly. Evan Longoria is currently the only 3B in the Fever system, and he is at the end of his current contract. The 24 year old Wilber has the tools to step right in at the major league level and contribute, so this is a very smart pick.
3. ATL – 3B Josh Rodriguez (Rice) – The Flyers jumped up in the draft lottery this year and swiped "J-Rod", a former All American from the Rice Owls. Though scouts aren't as impressed with his skill set as some of the other third basemen in the draft, the on-field results are tough to argue with. Rodriguez capped his four-year career by batting .401/.459/.738, striking out just 36 times in 344 AB's. J-Rod finished his college play with a career 1.048 OPS, 165 doubles, 96 HR and 314 RBI.
4. OSKA – 3B Ben Parker (Florida) – This was possibly the most predictable pick in the draft. Chest Rockwell leaving Osaka for Atlanta left a void that needed to be filled, and GM Tom Hey found his man. Parker is a left-handed, fly ball hitting third baseman with gold glove defense (something Rockwell did NOT have). Parker perhaps needs a little more refining than some of the other third base draftees, but Hey isn't known for his patience with prospects, and I expect to see this former Gator in the lineup by year's end. What's not to like about a kid who can hit 35 HR and Slug .741? Good pick.
5. KYO – 3B Shuhei Iwata (Cal St. Fullerton) – The run on third basemen continues. Kyoto is another team with a need at the position, and their scouts loved the Japan native on Cal St. Fullerton. Unlike some of the other hot corner players in the draft, Iwata is more or less a two-tool player. His defense is not good, and he has catcher's speed. He also had a subpar year in college (compared to other draftees), hitting just .272 with 23 HR and 63 RBI. Is Kyoto GM Darin Keesing concerned? "Not at all. We feel he has the same skill set as Albert Pujols, and all that guy has done is hit 455 HR." This will be an interesting prospect to keep an eye on, as we've seen that collegiate play doesn't always equate with pro ball; just look at Diego Clemente's college numbers if you want Exhibit A.
6. BAL – C Calver Alkoa (Arizona) – The incredible depth at third base in this year's draft is offset by an extremely thin crop of catchers. While Baltimore certainly can use a catching prospect, this pick brings up the common debate over first round picks: do you draft for need or do you take the best available player regardless of position? Alkoa is a decent looking prospect, a lefty hitter who had a good power year for the Wildcats, but there are definitely better hitters available at this pick. GM Jose Gutierrez is known for not always making the obvious choice, but recently he has come out on top with his early draft picks. Personally, I think he took the second best catcher in the draft, but history will decide who's right.
7. BED – SS Sheyne Baniaga (Cal St. Fullerton) – Baniaga is the second Titan taken in the first 7 picks. A switch-hitting short stop with elite power and gold glove defensive abilities come around extremely rarely and Bedford is a team starving for offense. Baniaga hit just 16 HR (and 59 in his career), but Crunch scouts think he'll adapt well to the wooden bat. The team has a pair of young SS's on the major league roster, so they have some time to groom Baniaga before thrusting him into the limelight.
8. CLE – 1B Matthew Hamman (Wichita St.) – The Dawgs looked to add another piece to their home-grown offense, choosing to upgrade at first base. Hamman is a switch-hitter with a good eye at the plate and developing power. He led his team with 28 HR while batting .350. He picked the right time to peak, having hit just 48 HR in his previous 3 years. Cleveland has done an impressive job drafting hitters, and first base was an obvious area to upgrade, as Al Allen and Al Siever just haven't risen above bench player status.
- By Darin Keesing
9. IRE – 3B Kainalu Chmolak (LSU)
You know Ireland was thinking catcher here after drafting one seemingly every year, but Baltimore took Alokoa with the sixth pick. Chmolak is no booby prize, however. He’s a switch hitter with just ridiculous power, but scouts say he has a hole in his swing that SLB pitchers can exploit. He’s a career .320 hitter in college, though, so the truth may be that the juice in his bat hides any deficiencies. Ireland isn’t too enamored with current third baseman Barry Rosen, so Chmolak might get the call sooner rather than later.
10. BAL – 2B Luke Daughetry (BAY)
With their second pick of the first round, Baltimore settled on Daughetry. He compares well to Jockster, who went first overall. Like Taipei’s new second sacker, Daughetry is a switch hitter with power to spare – even more so in fact – but he isn’t quite the contact hitter that Jockster is. The Panthers currently have Frank Vanderwall and his .380 average sitting at second base, so they can afford to groom Daughetry for the future.
11. CHNG – CF Dreshon Murray (WICH)
It’s rare to find a centerfielder with the kind of power that Murray displays. In fact, there’s not one in the entire SLB that can match Murray punch-for-punch. The only problem that scouts see with Murray is that he spent so much time in the weight room at Wichita State that he lost some flexibility and as a result, his swing doesn’t generate the same amount of lift that most power hitters do. Right now, the Kwaan have their outfield set, but if Trevor Bayne continues his struggles, Murray may end up in the big leagues soon.
12. SAV – SP Holden Whitley (MIA)
In an offense laden draft, it took until the twelfth pick to see a pitcher come off the board. Whitley has all kinds of measurables, he throws hard (with room for improvement), he has good control, good endurance and he’s great at holding runners. He’s got projectable fastball that’s already good enough for the SLB, but his secondary pitches are lacking. His slider looks like it could be a big league pitch one day, but his curveball looks like it will never be anything more than a last resort. Whitley has a career 21-21 record with a 4.46 ERA, but he really put things together his senior year, going 7-2 and lowering his ERA to 3.27.
13. LON – 2B Augustine Ortiz (WICH)
Like it was for the hot corner, this draft was thick in second baseman. The sweet-swinging lefty makes tons of contact (A career .360 hitter) and uses his speed and quick bat to pound balls into the gaps for extra bases (178 career doubles). The first two second basemen drafted were more of the thick-necked variety, but Ortiz is no slouch, either. London is currently enjoying a rebirth of sorts from T.J. Mackey, so don’t expect to see Ortiz in the bigs for a while.
14. SJ - 2B Jonathan Stephens (MIA)
Stephens is the fourth second baseman taken in the first round, and he’s more like Ortiz than Jockster or Daughetry. His bat will play just a step below Ortiz’, but Stephens is the fastest of the second basemen drafted in the first round. Stephens hit .335 last year, but continued to struggle versus lefthanded pitching, batting just .242 against them, lower than his .266 career mark. The Senadores are currently just three games behind Atlanta, but with Baltimore hot on their tails, it might be hard for Gluvna to leave Stephens down for too long.
15. HAL - (R) Jerry Bennett (ARZ)
Guess what, another second baseman. Again, Bennett has more of a prototypical second baseman’s bat - if not a shortstop’s, truthfully. He has a quick bat and great speed, but he’s never going to be a home run hitter. Scouts say that his swing is tailor made to dominate lefties. It’s just never happened. Bennett hit just .269 against them last year and is just a .277 hitter against them in his career. Things like that tend to get overlooked when you smash righthanded pitching the way he has, you just have to wonder how his those skills and numbers will translate against more advanced pitching. Halifax has Jed Lowrie in the last year of his contract currently playing second base, so we may see Bennett up in the bigs by 2019.
16. PAR - 2B Bucky Covington (ND)
Of course the draft ends with another second baseman. This sweet swinging lefty is also a sweet singing lefty… he almost turned down his scholarship offer to Notre Dame to pursue a music career. In the end the Golden Domers won out, and Covington responded by hitting .323 in 314 career games. He’s not overly powerful or overly fast, but he projects to potentially add speed and strength which could push him into the realm of the elite second basemen.
- By Dylan Goforth
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Amateur Draft Analysis - 2016
Moving on to 2016....
2016 - After the 2015 draft, the SLB front office voted to restrict eligibility to seniors only. As a result, the 2016 class was predictably weak. Most of the impact juniors were drafted the year before, leaving the senior class pretty thin (The All-American Team had just three seniors, only one of whom was drafted). As a result, 2016 was arguably one of (if not the) weakest drafts in league history. Did anyone find a diamond in the rough?
1) CLE - SS Damion Douglas (KENT) - Even considering the weak draft class, this pick had most GM's scratching their heads. Douglas had an extremely average skill set, and didn't even project as a major league bench player to many scouts. He did nothing to create any buzz during his first minor league year, batting .287 with 8 HR and 27 RBI. Despite the weak showing, he got called up to the majors, accumulating 334 AB's. His final line was .243/.285/.455, 16 HR, 43 RBI.
That was the extent of Douglas' minor league stay. He has been on the Cleveland bench this year, going just .220 with 3 HR in 50 AB's. Think the Dawgs regret this one?
2) TAI - P Roy Higuera (CSF) - Taipei had the misfortune of having a high pick in a bad draft. They decided to take a shot at Cal State Fullerton's Roy Higuera, a hard throwing starter with just a fastball and a change up. Last year's draft showed mixed results with two-pitch starters, but Higuera had a much stronger arm than any of those draftees. The gamble looked like a bad one after 2017's AAA season ended, as Higuera went 4-2, 6.58 with a 1.63 WHIP.
After such pitiful pitching, the natural thing to do was stick him in your big league rotation, right? Well someone must have seen something in the kid, as he has sparkled as a major league rookie. In 13 starts, he has 10 QS, going 5-6, 2.86 and a WHIP just over 1.00. The question is, which Higuera is the real one? Did the kid suddenly "get it", or is he doomed to regress next season?
3) IRE - P Al Snodgrass (KENT) - Another two-pitch starter. Seems to be a trend, eh? Snodgrass wasn't as strong as Higuera, and featured a curve rather than a change up. Unfortunately for Ireland, his numbers have been the reverse of Higuera's as well. Snodgrass excelled in 2017, posting a 2.66 ERA in Melbourne allowing just 7 HR in 118 IP. He came up to Ireland in September, but threw just 2 2/3 scoreless innings.
Snodgrass was inserted into the major league rotation in 2018, but it was too soon. The kid had a 2.00 WHIP and a 10.05 ERA in 3 starts. On April 20th, he was sent back to the Beer Bellies. Since his return to AAA, he has gone 5-4, 3.17. Best to give him more inning in the minors and ease him back to the majors.
4) SJ - RF Charlie Proly (MICH) - Hindsight being 20/20, Proly should have been the #1 overall pick. Cleveland had just drafted Tex Austin the year before, but Proly was the cream of the offensive crop. His first year in Caracas saw a .330 average with 18 HR and 67 RBI.
After adding about 15 pounds of muscle in the off season, Proly returned to Caracas on a mission. The 25 year old has pounded 30 HR this year without losing his great average. So what's his future with San Juan? The Senadores already have three All-Star caliber outfielders, all under 30 years old. Is it time a for a position change, or can you work him as the key man in a big trade?
5) BED - P Alex Pocoroba (AUB) - Pocoroba was the first (and only) All-American drafted in 2016. He was dominant in Auburn's bullpen, posting a 1.72 ERA while saving 10 games. His fastball and slider were both plus pitches and he had above average arm strength. For some reason, he only pitched 4 2/3 innings for AAA Detroit in 2017, posting a 15.43 ERA. The sample size was far too small to make any judgments on.
Pocoroba was traded to Chiang Mai in April of 2018 as part of a 4 player swap. He has seen more regular work in Springfield's pen, with 37 IP. His ERA has been a decent 4.34, but his overall performance has to vastly improve before he sees any significant playing time in a major league bullpen.
6) HAL - P Randall Graves (NWU) - What's this? A starter with more than two pitches? Perish the thought! Graves Featured a 93 mph fastball along with a slider and curve at Northwestern. In his first season with Vancouver, he went 9-5, 3.07. More impressive, his WHIP was under 1.00.
Graves has spent all of 2018 in AAA. He has pitched 13 QS in 17 games started with a 3.59 ERA. It's tough to imagine that he's too far away from the major league rotation; perhaps not this year, but he'll be strongly considered for 2019.
7) BAL - RF Mike Wells (OSU) - Baltimore had far less pressure on them in 2016, picking mid-round in a draft devoid of sure stars. Gutierrez picked up a useful OF in left-handed batting Mike Wells. With Guerrero retiring soon (or so we keep assuming), the team has time to groom his replacement. His 2017 season was solid: an .873 OPS and 50 XBH.
Wells has really turned it up a notch or two this year in Miami. His OPS is up to 1.040 and he leads his team with 67 RBI. Though his power isn't likely to ever match Vladdy's, this former Buckeye looks like a cheap 20 HR bat in the near future.
8) PAR - Skipped - You know the draft is bad when a GM thinks no one in it is better than a single person on his current roster. Moving on....
9) OSKA - C Elmer Kennedy (LSU) - The Ronin always need pitching, but this clearly wasn't the draft to improve that side of the ball. With the impending free agency of Tony Montana, Osaka was smart to invest a pick into a potential replacement. Kennedy had decent power and above average defense, and was a rare switch-hitting catcher. His 2017 line in Ft. Wayne finished at .288 with 17 HR and 49 RBI.
Montana did end up walking after 2017, thrusting Kennedy into the starting position behind the dish for the Ronin. He has responded well offensively, hitting 14 HR and driving in 38 to date. His defense has been shaky; 9 errors in 68 games behind the dish is pretty rough. It would be easy to criticize his handling of the pitching staff, but I don't think Ivan Rodriguez could get much out of this sorry group.
10) SCOT - LF Bill Ranford (RICE) - Ranford was a potential 5-tool outfielder out of Rice. Scouts loved his blend of eye, power and speed to go with good defense. But before he could take a minor league at-bat for Stockholm, he was traded to Halifax as part of the Kenji Johjima deal. He was a bench player in Vancouver, getting just 102 AB's.
Injury issues in Halifax have forced Ranford into some playing time, and he has done better than expected. .316/.356/.553 with 6 HR in 152 AB's. Can't ask for much more from a kid his age.
11) PHI - LF Truck Chakales (ARZ) - Truck is a big thumper out of Arizona who has put up good power numbers for the Senators over the past 2 seasons. He slugged .629 with 23 big flys in 2017, leading his team in both categories.
His numbers in 2018 have been nearly identical. The 23 year old might have to wait a while before getting his shot in the bigs, however, as he's staring up at the outfield of Hunter/Bruce/Hunting in Phily.
12) P Kyle Carr (MINN) - Slim pickings already, so Kyoto takes Golden Gopher closer Kyle Carr. Carr had a good fastball and curve, but nothing that topped about 90 mph. He had a pretty good debut season, posting a 3.49 ERA and 9 saves as Flint's closer.
It's been rougher sailing for Carr in 2018. His ERA has been hovering in the mid-5's with a high WHIP. He as just traded to Ireland as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal.
13) ATL - SS Jimmy Hess (OSU) - Atlanta turned to Ohio State for a speedy short stop. Hess has great speed and a good eye, but not much defense. Stuck behind Orlie King on the depth chart, he went hitless in just 7 AB's for Charleston in 2017 .
Hess slotted over to 2B this year and has fared very poorly. His OPS is a paltry .642 and he leads his team with 72 K's (in 356 AB's). It seems unlikely that he sees time on the Flyers roster any time soon (if ever).
14) LON - P Ben Jenzen (MICH) - Jenzen came out of Michigan with three pitches, one of which was a very hittable curveball. He hasn't improved it much. He went 0-6, 5.68 in 2017, walking more (22) than he struck out (20). Ouch.
He remains winless as a pro, now 0-6 in 2018. He has pitched exclusively out of the pen, improving his ERA to 4.15 and his BB/K ratio to 14/44. Don't look too hard at the record, as Queens is a terrible, terrible team. At any rate, this guy is not ready for prime time.
15) SAV - 3B Lew Little (AUB) - Little has about the same skill set as Damion Douglas, he just went at a far more appropriate place in the draft. He played to his skills, OPSing about .770 and hitting 11 HR for Tampa in 2017.
It's a lot worse this year. His OPS is down to .661 (to go with a .249 average) and he has just 5 HR. The kid doesn't look to be cut out for pro ball. Tough break.
16) P Tyler Oakes (MINN) - Oakes was an interesting prospect out of the Big 10. His fastball topped out in the high 80's, but he had a plus curveball with pinpoint control. His first summer in Queens was a disaster, allowing 34 baserunners in just 13 innings (.409 OpAvg).
But Oakes didn't get discouraged and entered 2018 with a bright outlook. After posting a 1.79 ERA in 7 IP at Queens, Tyler got the call up to the bigs. He is now a fixture in the first place London's pen, and he has shined. He is 2-1 with a dazzling 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings, allowing just 9 baserunners and fanning 11. Coupled with Craig Hansen, he's part of the most intimidating duo in any SLB bullpen.
2016 - After the 2015 draft, the SLB front office voted to restrict eligibility to seniors only. As a result, the 2016 class was predictably weak. Most of the impact juniors were drafted the year before, leaving the senior class pretty thin (The All-American Team had just three seniors, only one of whom was drafted). As a result, 2016 was arguably one of (if not the) weakest drafts in league history. Did anyone find a diamond in the rough?
1) CLE - SS Damion Douglas (KENT) - Even considering the weak draft class, this pick had most GM's scratching their heads. Douglas had an extremely average skill set, and didn't even project as a major league bench player to many scouts. He did nothing to create any buzz during his first minor league year, batting .287 with 8 HR and 27 RBI. Despite the weak showing, he got called up to the majors, accumulating 334 AB's. His final line was .243/.285/.455, 16 HR, 43 RBI.
That was the extent of Douglas' minor league stay. He has been on the Cleveland bench this year, going just .220 with 3 HR in 50 AB's. Think the Dawgs regret this one?
2) TAI - P Roy Higuera (CSF) - Taipei had the misfortune of having a high pick in a bad draft. They decided to take a shot at Cal State Fullerton's Roy Higuera, a hard throwing starter with just a fastball and a change up. Last year's draft showed mixed results with two-pitch starters, but Higuera had a much stronger arm than any of those draftees. The gamble looked like a bad one after 2017's AAA season ended, as Higuera went 4-2, 6.58 with a 1.63 WHIP.
After such pitiful pitching, the natural thing to do was stick him in your big league rotation, right? Well someone must have seen something in the kid, as he has sparkled as a major league rookie. In 13 starts, he has 10 QS, going 5-6, 2.86 and a WHIP just over 1.00. The question is, which Higuera is the real one? Did the kid suddenly "get it", or is he doomed to regress next season?
3) IRE - P Al Snodgrass (KENT) - Another two-pitch starter. Seems to be a trend, eh? Snodgrass wasn't as strong as Higuera, and featured a curve rather than a change up. Unfortunately for Ireland, his numbers have been the reverse of Higuera's as well. Snodgrass excelled in 2017, posting a 2.66 ERA in Melbourne allowing just 7 HR in 118 IP. He came up to Ireland in September, but threw just 2 2/3 scoreless innings.
Snodgrass was inserted into the major league rotation in 2018, but it was too soon. The kid had a 2.00 WHIP and a 10.05 ERA in 3 starts. On April 20th, he was sent back to the Beer Bellies. Since his return to AAA, he has gone 5-4, 3.17. Best to give him more inning in the minors and ease him back to the majors.
4) SJ - RF Charlie Proly (MICH) - Hindsight being 20/20, Proly should have been the #1 overall pick. Cleveland had just drafted Tex Austin the year before, but Proly was the cream of the offensive crop. His first year in Caracas saw a .330 average with 18 HR and 67 RBI.
After adding about 15 pounds of muscle in the off season, Proly returned to Caracas on a mission. The 25 year old has pounded 30 HR this year without losing his great average. So what's his future with San Juan? The Senadores already have three All-Star caliber outfielders, all under 30 years old. Is it time a for a position change, or can you work him as the key man in a big trade?
5) BED - P Alex Pocoroba (AUB) - Pocoroba was the first (and only) All-American drafted in 2016. He was dominant in Auburn's bullpen, posting a 1.72 ERA while saving 10 games. His fastball and slider were both plus pitches and he had above average arm strength. For some reason, he only pitched 4 2/3 innings for AAA Detroit in 2017, posting a 15.43 ERA. The sample size was far too small to make any judgments on.
Pocoroba was traded to Chiang Mai in April of 2018 as part of a 4 player swap. He has seen more regular work in Springfield's pen, with 37 IP. His ERA has been a decent 4.34, but his overall performance has to vastly improve before he sees any significant playing time in a major league bullpen.
6) HAL - P Randall Graves (NWU) - What's this? A starter with more than two pitches? Perish the thought! Graves Featured a 93 mph fastball along with a slider and curve at Northwestern. In his first season with Vancouver, he went 9-5, 3.07. More impressive, his WHIP was under 1.00.
Graves has spent all of 2018 in AAA. He has pitched 13 QS in 17 games started with a 3.59 ERA. It's tough to imagine that he's too far away from the major league rotation; perhaps not this year, but he'll be strongly considered for 2019.
7) BAL - RF Mike Wells (OSU) - Baltimore had far less pressure on them in 2016, picking mid-round in a draft devoid of sure stars. Gutierrez picked up a useful OF in left-handed batting Mike Wells. With Guerrero retiring soon (or so we keep assuming), the team has time to groom his replacement. His 2017 season was solid: an .873 OPS and 50 XBH.
Wells has really turned it up a notch or two this year in Miami. His OPS is up to 1.040 and he leads his team with 67 RBI. Though his power isn't likely to ever match Vladdy's, this former Buckeye looks like a cheap 20 HR bat in the near future.
8) PAR - Skipped - You know the draft is bad when a GM thinks no one in it is better than a single person on his current roster. Moving on....
9) OSKA - C Elmer Kennedy (LSU) - The Ronin always need pitching, but this clearly wasn't the draft to improve that side of the ball. With the impending free agency of Tony Montana, Osaka was smart to invest a pick into a potential replacement. Kennedy had decent power and above average defense, and was a rare switch-hitting catcher. His 2017 line in Ft. Wayne finished at .288 with 17 HR and 49 RBI.
Montana did end up walking after 2017, thrusting Kennedy into the starting position behind the dish for the Ronin. He has responded well offensively, hitting 14 HR and driving in 38 to date. His defense has been shaky; 9 errors in 68 games behind the dish is pretty rough. It would be easy to criticize his handling of the pitching staff, but I don't think Ivan Rodriguez could get much out of this sorry group.
10) SCOT - LF Bill Ranford (RICE) - Ranford was a potential 5-tool outfielder out of Rice. Scouts loved his blend of eye, power and speed to go with good defense. But before he could take a minor league at-bat for Stockholm, he was traded to Halifax as part of the Kenji Johjima deal. He was a bench player in Vancouver, getting just 102 AB's.
Injury issues in Halifax have forced Ranford into some playing time, and he has done better than expected. .316/.356/.553 with 6 HR in 152 AB's. Can't ask for much more from a kid his age.
11) PHI - LF Truck Chakales (ARZ) - Truck is a big thumper out of Arizona who has put up good power numbers for the Senators over the past 2 seasons. He slugged .629 with 23 big flys in 2017, leading his team in both categories.
His numbers in 2018 have been nearly identical. The 23 year old might have to wait a while before getting his shot in the bigs, however, as he's staring up at the outfield of Hunter/Bruce/Hunting in Phily.
12) P Kyle Carr (MINN) - Slim pickings already, so Kyoto takes Golden Gopher closer Kyle Carr. Carr had a good fastball and curve, but nothing that topped about 90 mph. He had a pretty good debut season, posting a 3.49 ERA and 9 saves as Flint's closer.
It's been rougher sailing for Carr in 2018. His ERA has been hovering in the mid-5's with a high WHIP. He as just traded to Ireland as part of the C.C. Sabathia deal.
13) ATL - SS Jimmy Hess (OSU) - Atlanta turned to Ohio State for a speedy short stop. Hess has great speed and a good eye, but not much defense. Stuck behind Orlie King on the depth chart, he went hitless in just 7 AB's for Charleston in 2017 .
Hess slotted over to 2B this year and has fared very poorly. His OPS is a paltry .642 and he leads his team with 72 K's (in 356 AB's). It seems unlikely that he sees time on the Flyers roster any time soon (if ever).
14) LON - P Ben Jenzen (MICH) - Jenzen came out of Michigan with three pitches, one of which was a very hittable curveball. He hasn't improved it much. He went 0-6, 5.68 in 2017, walking more (22) than he struck out (20). Ouch.
He remains winless as a pro, now 0-6 in 2018. He has pitched exclusively out of the pen, improving his ERA to 4.15 and his BB/K ratio to 14/44. Don't look too hard at the record, as Queens is a terrible, terrible team. At any rate, this guy is not ready for prime time.
15) SAV - 3B Lew Little (AUB) - Little has about the same skill set as Damion Douglas, he just went at a far more appropriate place in the draft. He played to his skills, OPSing about .770 and hitting 11 HR for Tampa in 2017.
It's a lot worse this year. His OPS is down to .661 (to go with a .249 average) and he has just 5 HR. The kid doesn't look to be cut out for pro ball. Tough break.
16) P Tyler Oakes (MINN) - Oakes was an interesting prospect out of the Big 10. His fastball topped out in the high 80's, but he had a plus curveball with pinpoint control. His first summer in Queens was a disaster, allowing 34 baserunners in just 13 innings (.409 OpAvg).
But Oakes didn't get discouraged and entered 2018 with a bright outlook. After posting a 1.79 ERA in 7 IP at Queens, Tyler got the call up to the bigs. He is now a fixture in the first place London's pen, and he has shined. He is 2-1 with a dazzling 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings, allowing just 9 baserunners and fanning 11. Coupled with Craig Hansen, he's part of the most intimidating duo in any SLB bullpen.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Amateur Draft Analysis - 2015
Over the days leading up to this year's draft, I'll be looking back at the past few drafts for some analysis. What better year to start than 2015, the draft for which this blog was named? Let's dive right in.
2015 - In the third year of SLB's official draft affiliation with the NCAA, the players who were freshmen at the start became draft eligible. The most talked about player in the collegiate ranks was USC shortstop Diego Clemente, a 5-tool player who was being called the next Alex Rodriguez before he ever took a swing. For 3 seasons, it was assumed he would go #1 overall. The only thing that stopped that from happening was Baltimore GM Jose Gutierrez; Panther fans were hoping he'd make up for what they considered a draft day gaffe the year before (taking LHP Zach Putnam #1 overall ahead of sluggers like Al Murphy, Alex Hildenbrand and Antonio Mule). The blue and black Diego Clemente jerseys were being made and ready to ship to every team shop in the greater Baltimore area, but Gutierrez threw another curveball, selecting Auburn starter Ben Cepeda instead, leaving Panther fans on suicide watch and London GM Sean O'Hallaran giddy with disbelief.
Now, looking back, can we still say that Gutierrez's selection was as bad as the critics believed? Let's take a look at the entire first round and see how they have (or haven't) contributed to their teams.
1) BAL - P Ben Cepeda (AUB) - Saddled as the most notorious #1 overall pick since the Texans took Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, Cepeda headed to Miami to prove the critics wrong. His 2016 line was very good for a first year pro: 9-4, 3.88, 123 H, 128 K and only 17 BB in 123 IP. His performance was overshadowed by teammate Zach Putnam, who was shutting his own critics down with a 12-1, 1.59 (and Pitching Prospect of the Year Award) performance of his own.
Cepeda's second season exceeded his first, as the Miami ace finished with a 12-2, 3.15 line. Most impressive was his K rate, as he struck out 137 batters in 117 IP (10.5 K/9IP).
The Baltimore front office was satisfied with Cepeda's progress and inserted him into their major league rotation (along side Putnam) and have seen great results. His run support has been bad, but you can't complain about a 4-5, 2.85 line with a K/IP from a rookie. If Cepeda wins the RPOY award this year, will he finally be able to silence his critics? Does Jose get any credit for making the unpopular choice?
2) LON - SS Diego Clemente (USC) - After an All-American Team selection as a junior, Clemente was snatched up by London. He never spent a day in the minor leagues. After a quick Rookie League warm up, Clemente jumped straight into the Knights' lineup in 2016 (playing 3B) and ran away with the Rookie Hitter of the Year honors. His rookie line: .312/.352/.570, 44 2B, 42 HR, 109 RBI, 44 SB. This is the way to live up to your billing!
There was some drop off of Clemente's numbers in 2017 as pitchers adjusted, but he still raked. .269/.316/.506, 43 2B, 39 HR, 108 RBI, 31 SB.
Injuries have hampered Clemente in 2018, limiting him to just 29 games so far this season. He's hitting a paltry .252 with just 7 HR and 21 RBI. London has managed to stay in first place despite his injuries and hope he comes back strong (he's expected back in 2-4 weeks).
3) CHNG - RF Morton Henrikksen (RICE) - The big slugger from the Owls has been putting up huge power numbers in the minors since being drafted 3rd overall. The Kwaan selected him despite the fact he shared the same position as MVP Joe Belinda. His debut season in Springfield saw him put up a .297/.354/.528, 16 HR, 51 RBI line.
On the day before Opening Day 2017, Henrikksen was shipped to Atlanta as part of an 8 player deal featuring Mark Prior and Barry Zito. The Mighty Swede has excelled in the excellent Charleston system. His 2017 line was a robust .321/.380/.659, 26 HR, 72 RBI.
With two weeks to go in the 2018 campaign, Henrikksen shows no signs of slowing: .331/.390/.686, 27 HR, 73 RBI. The question with an Atlanta prospect is always "when will he get the call?" The Flyers' recent shopping of Joshua Brady may be an indication that they are ready to see what Henrikksen can do, but it's unlikely we see him until 2019.
4) CLE - RF Tex Austin (TEX) - The Dawgs were thrilled that the 2015 National Player of the Year fell to them at #4. After batting .377 with 23 HR and 84 RBI for the Longhorns, Austin looked to jumpstart a struggling Cleveland offense. His first year for Hawaii saw a fine .317/.398/.587, 25 HR, 71 RBI line. No slowing down for this young stud.
Austin jumped to the majors in 2017, putting up a rookie OPS of .916 with 30 HR and 93 RBI. In many years, that would get him RHOY honors, but he came in second to Al Murphy (40 HR, 121 RBI).
Cleveland still struggles, but don't blame Tex. His 2018 line has been great, with an OPS near 1.000 to go with 19 HR and 50 RBI over the first 64 games.
5) TAI - P Chris Fetter (MICH) - Taipei had taken hitters in their first two amateur drafts (Maple in '13 and Mule in '14), but with glaring weaknesses at pitcher throughout the organization, adding arms was the priority of the day. Chris Fetter would get the honor of being the first pitcher taken in 2015. His first season in Lander was pretty mediocre, going 4-5, 4.76 in 115 innings. Coaches were encouraged, however, by his 133 K's over that span.
2017 saw the K rate go down but the ERA drop. On a terrible Lander team he went 2-9, 3.81 with 98 K's.
The Tai Fong plugged Fetter into the rotation this year for lack of anything better to throw out there. He's done a pretty good job thus far, going 7-4, 4.00 with 74 K's in 83 IP to date. He's prone to the long ball, but he's put up 8 quality starts in 13 tries and has helped Taipei stay in first place so far.
6) IRE - SS Jackie Pointer (FLA) - The 2014 All-American was usurped by Clemente in 2015, but still showed strongly enough to be a Top 10 pick. His 2016 debut was decent, posting a .792 OPS with 17 HR and 52 RBI. He was prone to losing concentration in the field, booting 8 balls for a .976 fielding %.
Pointer showed a little improvement in 2017, but as much as the scouts would have liked to see. A .834 OPS with 16 HR and 54 RBI was about the same as the season before, though his defense improved.
Pointer got a cup of coffee in September in both '16 and '17, hitting 6 HR and 19 RBI in about 150 combined AB's. 2018 has seen an improved eye at the plate, as he has posted a .317/.361/.514 line with 11 HR and 42 RBI so far. Overall, you'd have to label Pointer a disappointment, if only for his draft position. If you got these numbers from a 2nd rounder, you'd probably be satisfied, but at this point he's not much more than a useful bench player.
7) SAV - P Bill Bartleman (UVA) - The Sabers rolled the dice on this hard-throwing lefty despite the fact that he only has two pitches. He was nearly unhittable in his first minor league season, holding opponents to a .203 average (.190 vs.L) and posting a 3.47 ERA while striking out 133 in 114 IP. Pretty mean.
That confidence building season translated big time in 2017 where Bartleman dominated. His 10-1, 1.81 line dominated AAA and he won the Pitching Prospect of the Year Award. Bartleman held opponents to a .189 average and allowed just 4 HR in 114 IP. A brief 14 inning call up in September might have rattled his confidence a bit, as he gave up 19 hits and 7 walks.
Bartleman has been good this year, but not nearly as dominating as a year ago. In 14 starts he has gone 6-3, 3.58 and his OpAvg has risen to .249. He is still getting a great K rate. The question for the Saber organization is whether his future is as a starter or, perhaps, a shut down closer.
8) KYO - P Jordan Auerbach (IOWA) - Kyoto was thrilled that Auerbach fell to their spot at #8, though they knew they had a project on their hands. Scouts marvelled at his arm strength as he regularly hit the high 90's during workouts, but his pitches were raw and unrefined. His first season was good but unremarkable: 5-6, 3.51, 111 K's in 125 IP.
After a very good Rookie League, the Bushido front office decided to put Auerbach's feet to the fire and inserted him into the major league lineup. The former Hawkeye responded, going 13-9, 2.86 in his rookie season, holding opponents to a .224 average. He came in second in RPOY voting.
Though inconsistent at times, Auerbach continues to pitch well in Kyoto. His second season has seen him go 7-4, 2.99 in his first 13 starts. As the pitches improve, Auerbach will continue to be a very productive (and cheap) option in the rotation. Overall, a steal at #8.
9) PHI - P Dante Hicks (UCI) - Philly selected the junior southpaw All-American from UC Irvine with the #9 pick. Hicks landed in a good spot, pitching for the always formidable Washington D.C. squad. The winning tradition rubbed off as he went 10-5, 3.44 with 126 K's and only 17 BB's in 2016.
2017 was a slight drop off for Hicks. He matched his 10-5 record, but his ERA (3.76) and walks (25) increased. He still struck out a batter per inning and lead his team with 11 quality starts.
Hicks started the 2018 season in the Fever rotation, but was sent back to AAA on May 11th after going 2-2, 7.40 with 9 HR allowed in 46 IP. Since returning to D.C., he has regained his confidence, posting a 5-0, 3.22 line. While his FB and SI are rated as "plus" pitches, his SL is just average and needs improving.
10) BED - P Connor Graham (MIOH) - Graham came out of college with three good pitches and a decent arm. His first year in Detroit was decent (6-9, 4.18, 12 QS) but nothing to jump up and down about.
Lack of run support seemed to weigh Graham down in 2017. Despite getting better than a K/IP, he won just 3 games (vs. 10 losses) and allowed 165 baserunners in 119 IP. A brief September call up didn't help the confidence, as he allowed 34 baserunners in 20 IP and lost 2 games in his 14 appearances out of the pen.
Unfortunately, Graham hasn't showed much improvement. His ERA is hovering dangerously close to 5.00 in Detroit and his OpAvg is up to .283. The 25 year old lefty has good stuff, but at what point does it all come together for him?
11) HAL - SS Kiko Brezovan (MINN) - After a very promising debut season, Brezovan was fast-tracked to the majors. He posted a .978 OPS with 19 HR and 67 RBI for Vancouver in 2016, and that was all the time he has spent in the minors.
In 2017, Brezovan made the Sailor roster as a bench player out of Spring Training. He appeared in 48 games as a backup SS and 2B, OPSing 1.005 with 12 HR and 36 RBI in just 185 AB's.
Brezovan now bats cleanup and 5th for the Sailors. He leads the team in AB's and has put up an .854 OPS with 10 HR, 32 RBI and 21 doubles to date.
12) SJ - P Charlie Bosio (TEN) - Bosio might have been a stretch as a first round pick. The tall left-hander has a plus FB and CU, but no third pitch. His fastball tops out around 91. In his first season with Caracas he gave up 18 HR in 108 IP and posted a 4.99 ERA.
It got worse in 2017, as he allowed a .508 OpSlg and a 5.56 ERA. 171 baserunners in 115 IP is really bad.
Though the ERA has improved some (4.52) this season, Bosio still allows baserunners to reach at an alarming rate. With just two pitches, management might consider a move to the bullpen, but you can't have a setup man or closer post a 1.50 WHIP. So far, this is the first clear bust of the first round.
13) OSKA - 3B Wally Scott (SMSU) - The Ronin picked up Scott late in the first round, probably happy to have an All-American third baseman fall in their laps. Scott followed up his 19 HR, 73 RBI season at Southern Miss with a 14 HR, 52 RBI stint in Ft. Wayne.
2017 was a big year for Scott. He posted a 1.000 OPS with 22 dingers and 37 doubles. He was traded at the deadline to Savannah in exchange for reliever Brock Landers. The Sabers called on him right away, and in 58 games, Scott hit .355 with 8 HR and 38 RBI.
So far this year, Scott has been limited to bench duty for the Sabers. He has managed just 50 AB's, but has hit .320 with 5 HR and a .700 SLG. He's unlikely to get any regular playing time as long as Miguel Cabrera is on the roster.
14) SCOT - P Jim Autry (SMSU) - Autry went 10-2, 2.99 in his junior year at Southern Miss, making the All-American team. Like Charlie Bosio, he was a starter with just two pitches and an average-at-best arm. His first summer in Stockholm resulted in a 4.59 ERA and an alarming 165 baserunners in 104 IP.
Season two was an improvement. He lowered his ERA to 3.95 and his WHIP to 1.35. During the 2018 Winter Meetings, Autry was shipped to Chiang-Mai in an 8 player deal.
Autry has served as a middle reliever for the Kwaan in 2018. In 22 IP, he has gone 2-3, 4.03 and has allowed just one HR. This seems to be a better role for Autry.
15) PAR - 1B Angel Peltz (AUB) - Peltz put up big power numbers at Auburn and has done nothing but obliterate minor league pitching in his short career. His debut season in Quebec saw him bat .335 with a .975 OPS, launching 21 HR and 80 RBI.
It got scarier in 2017. How about this line: .370/.410/.707, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 44 2B. Holy christ! The only reason he didn't win the Hitting Prospect of the Year award was because teammate Stu Watwood knocked in 102. Rude.
Peltz has showed no sign of slowing down with the bat, though the power is down a bit this season. He has hit .377 so far with 15 HR and 52 RBI. The kid is built for Paris' high-powered offense, and few have any doubt he could hit 25+ HR a year for the Pimps. Great pickup at the end of Round 1.
16) P Dante Yeohe (GT) - Same pitcher, different name. Like Bosio/Autry, he has just the two pitches. What Yeohe has benefited from so far is a superior coaching staff in Charleston. His first season went very well as Yeohe posted a 2.94 ERA and K'd 137 in 118 IP.
Yeohe's ERA rose to 3.22 in 2017, but he K'd 141 in 112 IP.
Atlanta move Yeohe out of the rotation at Charleston this year and he hasn't responded well. He has appeared in 36 games (56 IP) and has a 4.34 ERA. His K/9 is almost down to 1:1. Is he just made to be a starter? The bullpen is a better role for him, but his confidence seems to have taken a hit.
And now for the picks that got away...
Round 2
LON - CF Warren McFadden - Career: .316, 121 2B, 41 3B, 59 HR, 186 RBI
CLE - 2B James Ewing (now with ATL) - Career: .314, 82 2B, 24 3B, 56 HR, 166 RBI
Round 5
CLE - 1B Al Siever - Career: .281, 24 HR, 78 RBI in 654 AB's
2015 - In the third year of SLB's official draft affiliation with the NCAA, the players who were freshmen at the start became draft eligible. The most talked about player in the collegiate ranks was USC shortstop Diego Clemente, a 5-tool player who was being called the next Alex Rodriguez before he ever took a swing. For 3 seasons, it was assumed he would go #1 overall. The only thing that stopped that from happening was Baltimore GM Jose Gutierrez; Panther fans were hoping he'd make up for what they considered a draft day gaffe the year before (taking LHP Zach Putnam #1 overall ahead of sluggers like Al Murphy, Alex Hildenbrand and Antonio Mule). The blue and black Diego Clemente jerseys were being made and ready to ship to every team shop in the greater Baltimore area, but Gutierrez threw another curveball, selecting Auburn starter Ben Cepeda instead, leaving Panther fans on suicide watch and London GM Sean O'Hallaran giddy with disbelief.
Now, looking back, can we still say that Gutierrez's selection was as bad as the critics believed? Let's take a look at the entire first round and see how they have (or haven't) contributed to their teams.
1) BAL - P Ben Cepeda (AUB) - Saddled as the most notorious #1 overall pick since the Texans took Mario Williams over Reggie Bush, Cepeda headed to Miami to prove the critics wrong. His 2016 line was very good for a first year pro: 9-4, 3.88, 123 H, 128 K and only 17 BB in 123 IP. His performance was overshadowed by teammate Zach Putnam, who was shutting his own critics down with a 12-1, 1.59 (and Pitching Prospect of the Year Award) performance of his own.
Cepeda's second season exceeded his first, as the Miami ace finished with a 12-2, 3.15 line. Most impressive was his K rate, as he struck out 137 batters in 117 IP (10.5 K/9IP).
The Baltimore front office was satisfied with Cepeda's progress and inserted him into their major league rotation (along side Putnam) and have seen great results. His run support has been bad, but you can't complain about a 4-5, 2.85 line with a K/IP from a rookie. If Cepeda wins the RPOY award this year, will he finally be able to silence his critics? Does Jose get any credit for making the unpopular choice?
2) LON - SS Diego Clemente (USC) - After an All-American Team selection as a junior, Clemente was snatched up by London. He never spent a day in the minor leagues. After a quick Rookie League warm up, Clemente jumped straight into the Knights' lineup in 2016 (playing 3B) and ran away with the Rookie Hitter of the Year honors. His rookie line: .312/.352/.570, 44 2B, 42 HR, 109 RBI, 44 SB. This is the way to live up to your billing!
There was some drop off of Clemente's numbers in 2017 as pitchers adjusted, but he still raked. .269/.316/.506, 43 2B, 39 HR, 108 RBI, 31 SB.
Injuries have hampered Clemente in 2018, limiting him to just 29 games so far this season. He's hitting a paltry .252 with just 7 HR and 21 RBI. London has managed to stay in first place despite his injuries and hope he comes back strong (he's expected back in 2-4 weeks).
3) CHNG - RF Morton Henrikksen (RICE) - The big slugger from the Owls has been putting up huge power numbers in the minors since being drafted 3rd overall. The Kwaan selected him despite the fact he shared the same position as MVP Joe Belinda. His debut season in Springfield saw him put up a .297/.354/.528, 16 HR, 51 RBI line.
On the day before Opening Day 2017, Henrikksen was shipped to Atlanta as part of an 8 player deal featuring Mark Prior and Barry Zito. The Mighty Swede has excelled in the excellent Charleston system. His 2017 line was a robust .321/.380/.659, 26 HR, 72 RBI.
With two weeks to go in the 2018 campaign, Henrikksen shows no signs of slowing: .331/.390/.686, 27 HR, 73 RBI. The question with an Atlanta prospect is always "when will he get the call?" The Flyers' recent shopping of Joshua Brady may be an indication that they are ready to see what Henrikksen can do, but it's unlikely we see him until 2019.
4) CLE - RF Tex Austin (TEX) - The Dawgs were thrilled that the 2015 National Player of the Year fell to them at #4. After batting .377 with 23 HR and 84 RBI for the Longhorns, Austin looked to jumpstart a struggling Cleveland offense. His first year for Hawaii saw a fine .317/.398/.587, 25 HR, 71 RBI line. No slowing down for this young stud.
Austin jumped to the majors in 2017, putting up a rookie OPS of .916 with 30 HR and 93 RBI. In many years, that would get him RHOY honors, but he came in second to Al Murphy (40 HR, 121 RBI).
Cleveland still struggles, but don't blame Tex. His 2018 line has been great, with an OPS near 1.000 to go with 19 HR and 50 RBI over the first 64 games.
5) TAI - P Chris Fetter (MICH) - Taipei had taken hitters in their first two amateur drafts (Maple in '13 and Mule in '14), but with glaring weaknesses at pitcher throughout the organization, adding arms was the priority of the day. Chris Fetter would get the honor of being the first pitcher taken in 2015. His first season in Lander was pretty mediocre, going 4-5, 4.76 in 115 innings. Coaches were encouraged, however, by his 133 K's over that span.
2017 saw the K rate go down but the ERA drop. On a terrible Lander team he went 2-9, 3.81 with 98 K's.
The Tai Fong plugged Fetter into the rotation this year for lack of anything better to throw out there. He's done a pretty good job thus far, going 7-4, 4.00 with 74 K's in 83 IP to date. He's prone to the long ball, but he's put up 8 quality starts in 13 tries and has helped Taipei stay in first place so far.
6) IRE - SS Jackie Pointer (FLA) - The 2014 All-American was usurped by Clemente in 2015, but still showed strongly enough to be a Top 10 pick. His 2016 debut was decent, posting a .792 OPS with 17 HR and 52 RBI. He was prone to losing concentration in the field, booting 8 balls for a .976 fielding %.
Pointer showed a little improvement in 2017, but as much as the scouts would have liked to see. A .834 OPS with 16 HR and 54 RBI was about the same as the season before, though his defense improved.
Pointer got a cup of coffee in September in both '16 and '17, hitting 6 HR and 19 RBI in about 150 combined AB's. 2018 has seen an improved eye at the plate, as he has posted a .317/.361/.514 line with 11 HR and 42 RBI so far. Overall, you'd have to label Pointer a disappointment, if only for his draft position. If you got these numbers from a 2nd rounder, you'd probably be satisfied, but at this point he's not much more than a useful bench player.
7) SAV - P Bill Bartleman (UVA) - The Sabers rolled the dice on this hard-throwing lefty despite the fact that he only has two pitches. He was nearly unhittable in his first minor league season, holding opponents to a .203 average (.190 vs.L) and posting a 3.47 ERA while striking out 133 in 114 IP. Pretty mean.
That confidence building season translated big time in 2017 where Bartleman dominated. His 10-1, 1.81 line dominated AAA and he won the Pitching Prospect of the Year Award. Bartleman held opponents to a .189 average and allowed just 4 HR in 114 IP. A brief 14 inning call up in September might have rattled his confidence a bit, as he gave up 19 hits and 7 walks.
Bartleman has been good this year, but not nearly as dominating as a year ago. In 14 starts he has gone 6-3, 3.58 and his OpAvg has risen to .249. He is still getting a great K rate. The question for the Saber organization is whether his future is as a starter or, perhaps, a shut down closer.
8) KYO - P Jordan Auerbach (IOWA) - Kyoto was thrilled that Auerbach fell to their spot at #8, though they knew they had a project on their hands. Scouts marvelled at his arm strength as he regularly hit the high 90's during workouts, but his pitches were raw and unrefined. His first season was good but unremarkable: 5-6, 3.51, 111 K's in 125 IP.
After a very good Rookie League, the Bushido front office decided to put Auerbach's feet to the fire and inserted him into the major league lineup. The former Hawkeye responded, going 13-9, 2.86 in his rookie season, holding opponents to a .224 average. He came in second in RPOY voting.
Though inconsistent at times, Auerbach continues to pitch well in Kyoto. His second season has seen him go 7-4, 2.99 in his first 13 starts. As the pitches improve, Auerbach will continue to be a very productive (and cheap) option in the rotation. Overall, a steal at #8.
9) PHI - P Dante Hicks (UCI) - Philly selected the junior southpaw All-American from UC Irvine with the #9 pick. Hicks landed in a good spot, pitching for the always formidable Washington D.C. squad. The winning tradition rubbed off as he went 10-5, 3.44 with 126 K's and only 17 BB's in 2016.
2017 was a slight drop off for Hicks. He matched his 10-5 record, but his ERA (3.76) and walks (25) increased. He still struck out a batter per inning and lead his team with 11 quality starts.
Hicks started the 2018 season in the Fever rotation, but was sent back to AAA on May 11th after going 2-2, 7.40 with 9 HR allowed in 46 IP. Since returning to D.C., he has regained his confidence, posting a 5-0, 3.22 line. While his FB and SI are rated as "plus" pitches, his SL is just average and needs improving.
10) BED - P Connor Graham (MIOH) - Graham came out of college with three good pitches and a decent arm. His first year in Detroit was decent (6-9, 4.18, 12 QS) but nothing to jump up and down about.
Lack of run support seemed to weigh Graham down in 2017. Despite getting better than a K/IP, he won just 3 games (vs. 10 losses) and allowed 165 baserunners in 119 IP. A brief September call up didn't help the confidence, as he allowed 34 baserunners in 20 IP and lost 2 games in his 14 appearances out of the pen.
Unfortunately, Graham hasn't showed much improvement. His ERA is hovering dangerously close to 5.00 in Detroit and his OpAvg is up to .283. The 25 year old lefty has good stuff, but at what point does it all come together for him?
11) HAL - SS Kiko Brezovan (MINN) - After a very promising debut season, Brezovan was fast-tracked to the majors. He posted a .978 OPS with 19 HR and 67 RBI for Vancouver in 2016, and that was all the time he has spent in the minors.
In 2017, Brezovan made the Sailor roster as a bench player out of Spring Training. He appeared in 48 games as a backup SS and 2B, OPSing 1.005 with 12 HR and 36 RBI in just 185 AB's.
Brezovan now bats cleanup and 5th for the Sailors. He leads the team in AB's and has put up an .854 OPS with 10 HR, 32 RBI and 21 doubles to date.
12) SJ - P Charlie Bosio (TEN) - Bosio might have been a stretch as a first round pick. The tall left-hander has a plus FB and CU, but no third pitch. His fastball tops out around 91. In his first season with Caracas he gave up 18 HR in 108 IP and posted a 4.99 ERA.
It got worse in 2017, as he allowed a .508 OpSlg and a 5.56 ERA. 171 baserunners in 115 IP is really bad.
Though the ERA has improved some (4.52) this season, Bosio still allows baserunners to reach at an alarming rate. With just two pitches, management might consider a move to the bullpen, but you can't have a setup man or closer post a 1.50 WHIP. So far, this is the first clear bust of the first round.
13) OSKA - 3B Wally Scott (SMSU) - The Ronin picked up Scott late in the first round, probably happy to have an All-American third baseman fall in their laps. Scott followed up his 19 HR, 73 RBI season at Southern Miss with a 14 HR, 52 RBI stint in Ft. Wayne.
2017 was a big year for Scott. He posted a 1.000 OPS with 22 dingers and 37 doubles. He was traded at the deadline to Savannah in exchange for reliever Brock Landers. The Sabers called on him right away, and in 58 games, Scott hit .355 with 8 HR and 38 RBI.
So far this year, Scott has been limited to bench duty for the Sabers. He has managed just 50 AB's, but has hit .320 with 5 HR and a .700 SLG. He's unlikely to get any regular playing time as long as Miguel Cabrera is on the roster.
14) SCOT - P Jim Autry (SMSU) - Autry went 10-2, 2.99 in his junior year at Southern Miss, making the All-American team. Like Charlie Bosio, he was a starter with just two pitches and an average-at-best arm. His first summer in Stockholm resulted in a 4.59 ERA and an alarming 165 baserunners in 104 IP.
Season two was an improvement. He lowered his ERA to 3.95 and his WHIP to 1.35. During the 2018 Winter Meetings, Autry was shipped to Chiang-Mai in an 8 player deal.
Autry has served as a middle reliever for the Kwaan in 2018. In 22 IP, he has gone 2-3, 4.03 and has allowed just one HR. This seems to be a better role for Autry.
15) PAR - 1B Angel Peltz (AUB) - Peltz put up big power numbers at Auburn and has done nothing but obliterate minor league pitching in his short career. His debut season in Quebec saw him bat .335 with a .975 OPS, launching 21 HR and 80 RBI.
It got scarier in 2017. How about this line: .370/.410/.707, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 44 2B. Holy christ! The only reason he didn't win the Hitting Prospect of the Year award was because teammate Stu Watwood knocked in 102. Rude.
Peltz has showed no sign of slowing down with the bat, though the power is down a bit this season. He has hit .377 so far with 15 HR and 52 RBI. The kid is built for Paris' high-powered offense, and few have any doubt he could hit 25+ HR a year for the Pimps. Great pickup at the end of Round 1.
16) P Dante Yeohe (GT) - Same pitcher, different name. Like Bosio/Autry, he has just the two pitches. What Yeohe has benefited from so far is a superior coaching staff in Charleston. His first season went very well as Yeohe posted a 2.94 ERA and K'd 137 in 118 IP.
Yeohe's ERA rose to 3.22 in 2017, but he K'd 141 in 112 IP.
Atlanta move Yeohe out of the rotation at Charleston this year and he hasn't responded well. He has appeared in 36 games (56 IP) and has a 4.34 ERA. His K/9 is almost down to 1:1. Is he just made to be a starter? The bullpen is a better role for him, but his confidence seems to have taken a hit.
And now for the picks that got away...
Round 2
LON - CF Warren McFadden - Career: .316, 121 2B, 41 3B, 59 HR, 186 RBI
CLE - 2B James Ewing (now with ATL) - Career: .314, 82 2B, 24 3B, 56 HR, 166 RBI
Round 5
CLE - 1B Al Siever - Career: .281, 24 HR, 78 RBI in 654 AB's
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Monday, July 14, 2008
Power Rankings (May 21, 2018)
"Title Contenders"
1. Philly (33-13) - 16-8 at home, wow, what a start. Oh wait, they’re even better on the road (17-5). Jay Bruce for MVP?
2. London (30-17) - Winners of nine straight, the Knights dominate left-handed pitching (12-3 record, .301 average against lefties).
3. Savannah (27-18) - Same record as the Flyers, but Atlanta swooning while Sabers are rising (five straight wins).
4 Baltimore (26-20) - Offense is uninspiring, but pitching staff is the real deal.
5. Atlanta (27-18) - Dropped five in a row, but slide shouldn’t last for too long.
6. San Juan (26-21) - Five games over .500, and in last place. Would have second best record if they were in the World League.
"We really want that playoff bonus"
7. Paris (25-24) - Pimps are 15-8 on the road but only 10-16 at home, a number that should even out as the season moves on.
8. Halifax (25-23) - Sort of a disappointing start. Boring offense — no one has more than eight home runs — and underachieving pitching has no one excited.
9. Taipei (26-21) - Not buying the start, but the Far East is so weak, someone has to win it.
"Maybe next year"
10. Scotland (22-26) - Not pretty — outside of Hamilton (.337, 18, 40) — but probably the best of the rest so far.
11. Cleveland (20-28) - Offense is a snoozer, and 80 percent of the pitching staff have been awful.
12. Kyoto (21-26) - Slumbering offense being somewhat carried by pretty decent pitching (get Affeldt out of there).
13. Chiang-Mai (21-26) - Carbon copy of Kyoto, just with worse pitching.
"Let's go ahead and just call it a day"
14. Bedford (16-31) - What a disaster. Gets placed ahead of Ireland and Osaka just based on being in the American League. Good news is that the offense (194 runs, second lowest in league) shouldn’t be this bad forever. Bad news is that the pitching will be.
15. Ireland (15-33) - Almost $40 million tied up in three starters, and the Invaders have a 4.92 ERA. THAT’S GOTTA HURT.
16. Osaka (17-32) - Only one team in SLB history has finished a season with an ERA above 6.00 — the 125-loss Tennessee Thunder, who came in at 6.79. Osaka’s ERA right now is 6.72, so at least they’re not Tennessee-bad.
1. Philly (33-13) - 16-8 at home, wow, what a start. Oh wait, they’re even better on the road (17-5). Jay Bruce for MVP?
2. London (30-17) - Winners of nine straight, the Knights dominate left-handed pitching (12-3 record, .301 average against lefties).
3. Savannah (27-18) - Same record as the Flyers, but Atlanta swooning while Sabers are rising (five straight wins).
4 Baltimore (26-20) - Offense is uninspiring, but pitching staff is the real deal.
5. Atlanta (27-18) - Dropped five in a row, but slide shouldn’t last for too long.
6. San Juan (26-21) - Five games over .500, and in last place. Would have second best record if they were in the World League.
"We really want that playoff bonus"
7. Paris (25-24) - Pimps are 15-8 on the road but only 10-16 at home, a number that should even out as the season moves on.
8. Halifax (25-23) - Sort of a disappointing start. Boring offense — no one has more than eight home runs — and underachieving pitching has no one excited.
9. Taipei (26-21) - Not buying the start, but the Far East is so weak, someone has to win it.
"Maybe next year"
10. Scotland (22-26) - Not pretty — outside of Hamilton (.337, 18, 40) — but probably the best of the rest so far.
11. Cleveland (20-28) - Offense is a snoozer, and 80 percent of the pitching staff have been awful.
12. Kyoto (21-26) - Slumbering offense being somewhat carried by pretty decent pitching (get Affeldt out of there).
13. Chiang-Mai (21-26) - Carbon copy of Kyoto, just with worse pitching.
"Let's go ahead and just call it a day"
14. Bedford (16-31) - What a disaster. Gets placed ahead of Ireland and Osaka just based on being in the American League. Good news is that the offense (194 runs, second lowest in league) shouldn’t be this bad forever. Bad news is that the pitching will be.
15. Ireland (15-33) - Almost $40 million tied up in three starters, and the Invaders have a 4.92 ERA. THAT’S GOTTA HURT.
16. Osaka (17-32) - Only one team in SLB history has finished a season with an ERA above 6.00 — the 125-loss Tennessee Thunder, who came in at 6.79. Osaka’s ERA right now is 6.72, so at least they’re not Tennessee-bad.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Season Preview - Atlanta Flyers
2017 Record: 76-84
Key Additions: 3B Chest Rockwell
Key Losses: Barry Zito
2018 Prediction: 85-75
2017 was a season that Flyers fans would rather forget. The team started slow and never got on track, finishing with their worst record since 2009. The once youth-rich Atlanta club has started seeing their home-grown players take the money and run, and the well has dried up a bit in Charleston. In addition, the rest of the division has caught up a bit to the Flyers, with San Juan mimicking their model to a tee. At this point, this isn't a 90 win team, and the team philosophy has started to crack; despite the most rookies on any 40-man roster in the league, Atlanta has over $78 million (of their $82.5 million payroll) tied into five players. With exactly $0 of wiggle room under his cap, GM Jim Masters has the stress of hoping his big stars do well, but not so well that they win a post-season award and destroy his carefully planned finances.
Batting Order
CF Gregory Burns
2B Curt Smaza
SS James Ewing
LF Darren Lemming
3B Chest Rockwell
1B Justin Morneau
C Jeffrey Clement
RF Josh Brady
While Darren Lemming and Chest Rockwell is about the scariest 1-2 punch you can think of in the middle of a batting order, the chance of their being a lot of guys on base in front of them seems slim. Burns is getting his first shot at full-time work after collecting about 400 PA's in his rookie year, and #3 hitter James Ewing struck out 136 times in 690 AB's. Jeff Clement is a scary good catcher, but he can't seem to stay healthy. Justin Morneau is certainly serviceable, but the aging veteran's good numbers only serve to hide the fact that John Twain isn't developing the way the team would like.
Pitching Rotation: Homer Bailey, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Tucker, Al Krieger, Corey Wade
Closer: Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez
There's no doubt that Bailey will be a Cy Young contender if healthy. Zambrano is always a coin flip (9-16 last year is not what they need again). Tucker is an underrated young arm, Corey Wade is just not good. Rookie Al Krieger (1st Round Pick out of U. of Miami, 2013) was 9-4, 3.01 last year in AAA (and 42-15 overall in 4 minor league seasons) and hopes to make up for the recent losses of Prior and Zito. The bullpen is not a team strength (outside of closer K-Rod).
This seems to be a "litmus test" type season in Atlanta; let's see what this team is made of and if another run of Atlanta dominance is on the horizon.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Season Preview: Taipei Tai Fong
2017 Record: 48-112
Key Additions: SS Jose Reyes, C Kenji Johjima
Key Losses: just respect
2018 Prediction: 69-91
Rudy Ruettinger (2nd overall in 2017) and Theodore Unger (3-12, 5.23 for TAI)are what GM Dylan Goforth has to show for his trading of Roy Oswalt and Antonio Mule. Ruettinger has a ton of pressure on him, not just to live up to the hype of being a #2 pick but to equal or better the performance of Mule, who starts for division rival Kyoto. Are poor personnel decisions the thing of the past for Taipei? Or are the signings of a 34 year-old catcher and a 33 year-old shortstop supposed to be signs of a commitment to winning now? Last year's debacle has left the Tai Fong at the 60M cap mark, fans are disinterested, players are frustrated, yet remarkably, noone was fired for incompetence.
Let's review: 48 wins, the fewest in SLB - every other team had at least 72. Last in runs scored with 591, last in HR, last in OBP - and yet they still managed to hit into 107 double-plays - and last in slugging. They were the worst hitting team versus both LHP and RHP. Maybe the Far East was worse than we thought, as having this Triple A team in your division had to pad those win totals. On the mound, Goforth's team had the second worst ERA, struck out the fewest number of batters, walked the most batters and had the fewest quality starts. Congratulations, you have nowhere to go but up, right?
Batting Order v RHP
SS Jose Reyes
2B Larry Kargel
CF Tom Maple
RF Walt Coon
1B Dan Posedel
C Kenji Johjima
LF Eric Dalton
3B Troy Tulowitzki
On the bench you'll find household names like C Gene Alten, SS George Fair, SS Patrick Greene, CF Jordan Parraz and RF Eric Valent. Opposing managers are trembling with fear thinking about the possible late game heroics about to come from those guys. But hey, they're supposed to be young, right? Building a franchise from bottom up? Well the pressure is on - right now. Because if this team doesn't start winning games right now, they won't be able to afford some of their young talent. Case in point, CF Tom Maple. He's 27, runs, hits, hits for power and can catch everything in the outfield and he's in his walk year. A last place finish means either Goforth lets him walk, and starts yet another rebuild, or Taipei resigns him for big money and hamstrings their budget for the future. Great work so far.
Pitching Rotation: Ron Mexico, Eric Ridener, Chris Fetter, Roy Higuera, Theodore Unger
Closer: Kevin Whelan
Rookie pitchers Chris Fetter and Roy Higuera will get a shot in the rotation this season and they'll probably be 2 of Taipei's best pitchers. Ron Mexico kept his ERA under 4 last season so he's considered an ace. Closer Kevin Whelan throws real hard and is in his walk year. Unger will be a free agent after the season as well.
Six seasons in, Taipei still looks like a first year expansion team. Time to quit making excuses and win some games.
Season Preview - Baltimore
2017 Record: 75-85, last in South
Key Losses: None
Key Additions: Don Drysden
2018 Prediction: 77-83
After a strong start got the fans in Baltimore excited, the Panthers did what they do best: disappoint. Jose Guttierez' squad couldn't even take advantage of the surprisingly poor year by Atlanta, and finished the year in last place. For the record, this was the 6th Last Place finish for Guttierez since taking over as GM in 2007 (to go with three 4th place and one 2nd place finish and zero playoff appearances). If you ever wondered the answer to "What happens when a rich dude from Miami buys a baseball team and installs his son as the GM?".....
The front office's cure for all of Baltimore's woes? SIGN DON DRYSDEN! That's it. Pay a middle reliever with a 4.89 career ERA nearly $5 million a year. Problem solved! First place here we come! But seriously, that's the only player move of any significance in the entire off season.
Batting Order (vs.RHP)
SS Billy Frill
2B Frank Vanderwal
1B Dallas McPherson
RF Vladimir Guerrero
LF Kieron Pope
CF Noah Lankford
3B Teddy Gammel
C Jon Poterson
pitcher
I'm too lazy to type out the vs.LHP lineup, which is pretty much 100% different. It's a crazy number of platoons, and I'm not sure it's that useful to keep them all going. Once some guys show they are better, expect them to get the bulk of the playing time. Baltimore keeps trotting out Guerrero and McPherson, refusing to trade these fan favorites at the expense of a true rebuild. Granted, McPherson defied his age by bashing 41 HR's and driving in 135, so he's hardly been a detriment. Gammel, Pope and Vanderwal all showed 20+ HR power, putting the Panthers right in the middle of the pack offensively. A pair of injured catchers has the team in the hole early depth-wise.
Pitching Rotation: Dennis Tankersly, Zach Putnam, Cole DeVries, Ben Cepeda, Oliver Perez
Closer: Don Drysden
A pair of veterans sandwich three young arms in a rotation that is trying to improve on their 14th place team ERA (4.98) in 2017. 'Tank' suffered from bad run support, going 7-10 last season despite a 3.05 ERA, where Perez went 12-8 with a 5.00+ mark. DeVries and Putnam gave the team innings (over 300 combined) and rookie Cepeda looks to make a splash after going 12-2, 3.15 in AAA Miami last season. The bullpen.....just shield your eyes and move on.
The Panthers are off to another quick start, but they probably won't benefit from another down year from the Flyers. The team can't get any lower in payroll, and fan expectations are so low that scientists can no longer measure them. Maybe the 17 people left in the ballpark will enjoy a few good games. Or not.
Season Preview: Osaka Ronin
2017 Record: 72-88, 3rd in Far East
Key Additions: 1B Prince Fielder
Key Losses: SP Roy Halladay, SP Johan Santana, C Tony Montana, 3B Chest Rockwell
2018 Prediction: 70-90
The Ronin were absolutely one of the worst teams in SLB for the first half of last season before a surge made things uncomfortable for the Kwaan and Bushido. With some major losses to the pitching staff and lineup, it remains to be seen if GM Tom Hey can capitalize on the second-half success of 2017 and snare a playoff spot. Osaka has had three straight 3rd place finishes - nothing to brag about when you have Taipei in your division.
Last season saw the typical Ronin squad - power hitting, ridiculous in their home park, and equally silly pitching numbers. That 5.77 ERA was the worst in SLB and their 352 bombs were tops. Same old story. So will this years team be any different? Or will it be more of the same - no fun to play against but your team, if decent, will take the series? Gone are pitchers Halladay and Santana, who led the Ronin with the only ERA's under 5 and they're replaced with rookie Bobby Ojeda Jr. and a Rule 5 pick, Carlton Smith. This doesn't look promising, as even long-time Hey favourite Ben Sheets had a 6.15 mark and is now 38 years old.
All of those homeruns didn't even give Osaka the run scoring lead last season, they were in the group (everyone was behind Paris) with San Juan, London and Halifax. Winning homerun derby's doesn't translate to wins and now Rockwell and his 54 bombs, as well as Montana and his 69 shots, have left for greener pastures. What's the Ronin's answer? Prince Fielder. And I'm not mocking it, as Fielder has long wanted to move to Osaka where his skills are perfectly suited. As Fielder himself noted, "I didn't lose weight, I didn't change anything this offseason. They didn't sign me to pinch-run, they signed me to jog around the bases. I'm hitting 75 this year no doubt. I wish I played my whole career here."
Batting Order v RHP
3B Paul Matthew
RF Rueben Brown
1B Prince Fielder
LF Dave Peppers
C Elmer Kennedy
CF Jack Schalk
2B Juan Thomas
SS Mike Henderson
There's some speed on the bench with CF J Kimm and LF J Kemp, and more power with C R Doumit, veteran IF C Utley and CF K Lipton. Matthew can't hit enough to leadoff however, and the Ronin will be relying on solo shots to win games. If they're going to follow this philosophy, why not get a 3B that can jack them out too?
Pitching Rotation: Ben Sheets, Bobby Ojeda Jr, Carlton Smith, Christopher Lambert, Ryan Anderson
Closer: Brock Landers
I guess if you're not committed to putting a winning team out there, at least make it entertaining. It doesn't even look like Tom Hey cares at this point, as that's the sorriest excuse for a pitching staff I've seen - counting expansion teams as well. Run totals for Osaka and their opposition will be high this year, homerun records might fall (with the usual, "yeah but he did that in Osaka" caveat) and while they might make things difficult, they won't be in the playoffs. Hey left about 30M on the table, so maybe he'll show enough interest to trade for a big-ticket pitcher or three.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Season Preview: London Knights
2017 Record: 86-74, 2nd in Euro
Key Losses: SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, SS Jose Reyes
Key Additions: 3B Alex Gordon
2018 Prediction: 84-76
Thanks to the woeful Far East last season, GM Sean O'Hallaran saw his Knights make it to the playoff round. But rather than patting himself on the back, the Knights GM has to be worried about what went wrong after finishing with 11 fewer victories than in 2016. This team, infused with great young talent and draft day steals, was supposed to be the next big thing. What happened? Well, the pitching didn't cut it at all. Despite the effort of Daisuke Matsuzaka, London finished with a whopping 4.86 ERA, better only than Baltimore and Osaka. Yikes. Jered Weaver got 32 starts and rewarded Manager Davey Johnson with a 5.41 ERA. And after Dice-K's 3.23, the next lowest ERA on the team was closer Craig Hansen at 4.26. Even the awesome Knight offense couldn't make up for this mess.
So the exciting offense, with a wicked combination of speed and power and players in their prime, remains intact save for Jose Reyes signing with Taipei. (Who's his agent? Sheesh.) Alex Gordon, formerly of Cleveland, will take his spot in the lineup. O'Hallaran resigned 2B T Mackey, who is as solid a #7 hitter you'll find. There are three 30/30 players for opponents to deal with, in McFadden, Clemente and Russell. So did the Knights improve their pitching this offseason? Did they replace the dearly departed Dice-K? Negative. It looks like London will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with this pitching staff. Oh, they resigned RP Michael Zagurski. Good job, you can't replace a 6.72 ERA easily. And he signed left-hander Sean Burnett for the 5th spot. Burnett posted a 6.71 ERA last year, and that miniscule advantage in suckiness means he's a starter while Zagurski is a middle reliever, I guess. Paris is going to clobber this pitching staff, no?
Batting Order v RHP
CF Warren McFadden
3B Alex Gordon
SS Diego Clemente
LF Delmon Young
RF Jim Russell
1B Jimmy McNulty
2B TJ Mackey
C Billy Wilson
Platoons - shmatoons. What you see is what you get and why not? The 8-hitter, entering his third season, hit .301 with 22 bombs and 15 steals. This lineup will hurt you.
Pitching Rotation: William Bray, Jered Weaver, Christopher Volstad, Tosekawa Mahara, Sean Burnett
Closer: Craig Hansen
Can the closer Hansen get over 20 saves? And if that rotation underwhelms you, hold your nose when you check out the 'pen. A lot of pressure on Weaver to have a great season - he's due isn't he? Good thing London fans are familiar with blitzes and heading for cover, they can show it off when the opposing team comes to bat.
The Paris strategy of great offense/pitching- that-will-hold-you-in-there only works, you know, if you actually have pitching that will hold you in there. The Knights will be fighting tooth-and-nail for the Wildcard spot this year.
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